U.S. Indices saw slight losses on Tuesday amid a lack of tier 1 US data or Fed speak, as President Trump’s tariff updates dominated the news – after sending out 14 trade letters on Monday, Tuesday he noted the tariffs will start to be paid on August 1st, there is no change to this date, and no extension will be granted, and also he is probably two days off from sending EU a letter. However, as Trump spoke in the Cabinet meeting, he believed the copper tariff would be 50%, which saw copper prices rise in excess of 10% to a record high. The Dollar eked out slight gains, while the Australian Dollar was the distinct G10 outperformer after the unexpected RBA hold yesterday, with wide expectations for a 25bps cut. The Japanese Yen was the laggard, and sensitivity continues to reside over the Yen given the new tariff rates, and also the Japan upper house elections on July 20th. BRL, CNH, and ZAR saw weakness after Trump said anyone in BRICS is getting a 10% charge. T-Notes were sold as the focus lies on supply this week, as well as ongoing trade updates, while there was little move on the average US 3 Year Auction. WTI and Brent saw slight gains and extended on Monday’s strength ahead of private inventory data after-hours. Gold was softer throughout the day, and largely led by the broadly constructive risk tone, echoing pressure seen in other traditional havens (i.e. fixed and JPY), as opposed to anything yellow-metal specific. Sectors were mixed – energy sat atop of the breakdown, while Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Financials led the losses, with the latter weighed on by weakness seen in GS, JPM, and BAC after all three were downgraded at HSBC on stretched valuations. Over the next two days, the focus will be trade with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick expecting another 15-20 trade letters to go out in that time, with Trump having EU offers on his desk, and is deciding on the next course of action. The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed mixed inflation expectations. The one-year ahead forecast eased to 3.0% from 3.2% in May, while the 3- and 5-yr were unchanged at 3.0% and 2.6%, respectively. Expectations for prices of rent, gas, medical care, and college accelerated in June, with the median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increasing by 1.5% to 4.2%, while medical care rose by 1.9% to 9.3%, its highest level since June 2023. Median home price rise expectations were unchanged at 3.0%. Concerning the labour market, the median one-year ahead earnings growth expectations fell by 0.2% to 2.5% in June, keeping below its 12-month trailing average of 2.8%. Albeit June labour market expectations improved due to the mean unemployment expectations decreasing by 1.1% to 39.7% with the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months falling by 0.8% to 14.0%, its lowest level since December 2024. Separately, households were more optimistic on personal finance and credit access; The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.2% to 2.9% in June, and perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago showed a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit.
To mark my 3200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 185 points yesterday and is now ahead by 795 points for July after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.07% lower at a price of 6225.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 165 points lower for a 0.37% loss at a price of 44,240.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.07% higher at a price of 22,702.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.41% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.27% higher at a price of 39,794.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.04% higher.
The Euro closed 0.13% higher at $1.1724.
The British Pound closed 0.04% lower at $1.3589.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $146.64.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 5 basis points higher at 4.64%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 4 basis points higher at 2.65%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.42%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.60% higher at $68.34 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.01% lower at $3303.10 an ounce.
This morning on Economic front we have the Bank of England Minutes from the June Meeting at 10.30 am, followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Next, we have Wholesale Inventories at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 4.30 pm we have the Atlanta Fed GDPNOW for Q2.
Cash S&P 500
Although the S&P closed flat yesterday it looks increasingly likely that the S&P registered at least a short-term top at last Thursday’s 6285 all-time high. The pullback has come on the tax cut bill passage on the heels of the tariff monster coming back. The $NYSI is close to max overbought while as pointed out in yesterday’s DC, the Fear & Greed Index is back to ‘’Extreme Greed’’ reading. There is no doubt that technical signals are frothy and a proper pullback definitely makes sense for July at some point as previously discussed. There is still no new tariff announcement despite that on a daily basis Treasury Secretary Bessant saying almost daily: ‘We are going to have several trade announcements in the next 48 hours” – yet nothing has materialised. I do not know how many times you can say the same thing over and over without actually delivering anything but you lose all creditability but Bessent and others have been making statements like this every week for the past three months. I am still flat the S&P. I will now lower my sell level to 6245/6265 with a 6281 tight ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term support from 6140/6160 where I will be a small buyer with a 6125 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6223. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6182.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well as the market rallied to my 1.1760 sell level shortly after I posted yesterday morning before selling off to my 1.1690 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller of the Euro from 1.1760/1.1830 with the same 1.1905 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level again at 1.1690. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
No Change: There remains zero confidence in the Dollar which continues to trade near its year-to-date low at 96.62 at a price of 97.60 this morning. If we get clarity on tariffs then we should get some confidence and the Dollar should rally. The Daily Chart is certainly set up for that given how oversold the market is. I am still long at an average rate of 97.40 with the same 98.00 T/P level. I will leave my 96.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat as I continue to be a buyer of the Russell on any dip lower to 2100/2180 with the same 2065 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2240.
FTSE 100
Just before the New York close the FTSE hit my sell range for a now 8870 short position. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 8940 with a now higher 9005 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 8810. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Tuesday’s sell range and I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 44600/44850 with a lower 45105 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 44390. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still short the NDX at an average rate of 22750 with the same 22640 T/P level. This morning the NDX is trading slightly lower at 22675 as I go to post. I will leave my 23005 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the Bund traded lower to my 129.50 buy level I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 128.70 with the same 128.15 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 130.10. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
After Gold hit Tuesday’s buy range for a 3288 long position I covered this trade at my revised 3299.50 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Gold has support below from 3240/3260 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 3225 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3282.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver continues to trade sideways near its high for the year as the market tries to work off some of its severely overbought condition. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 34.80/35.80 with the same 33.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 36.70.
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