U.S. Indices were mixed on Tuesday as the tech-heavy NDX led the losses, with Technology and Communication Services the only sectors in the red amid weakness in mega-cap names. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones both saw gains in excess of a percent with a notable divergence between the US major Indices. On the day, JOLTS was a very solid report and even above the top analyst forecast, while at the same time, the ISM Manufacturing. PMI saw a slight beat. Within ISM, it remained in contractionary territory, with prices remaining elevated, but employment slipping further into contractionary territory, beneath all analyst forecasts. Nonetheless, the focus was largely on the JOLTS report, as it shows that the labour market is not yet at a point of concern and that the Fed can hold for longer to ensure inflation returns to target. Elsewhere, a brief dovish reaction was seen as Fed Chair Powell spoke at Sintra and seemingly refused to rule out a cut in July, but it appeared he was simply avoiding the question as he did not want to pre-commit ahead of the next meeting. In Washington, President Trump’s bill passed the Senate, albeit with VP Vance casting the tie-breaking vote, given it was a 50-50 vote, and it will now be sent to the House Rules Committee before the House Floor. Elsewhere, the Dollar was ultimately flat in choppy trade as safe-haven FX outperformed and Canadian Dollar again lagged. T-Notes flattened after a strong aforementioned JOLTS report, while WTI and Brent saw slight gains, albeit in choppy trade, in light crude-specific newsflow, as participants await private inventory data after-hours. Looking ahead, Tesla (TSLA) Q2 delivery numbers are due on Wednesday, as well as ADP, followed by US jobs report and ISM Services. PMI on Thursday given US Independence Day on Friday. The JOLTS for May jumped to 7.769 million from 7.395 million, above the expected 7.3 million and exceeded the top end of the forecast range of 7.50 million. Within the release, the Quits Rate rose to 2.1% from 2.0%, while the Vacancy Rate rose to 4.6% from 4.4%. Oxford Economics highlights that job openings rose, although the increase was narrowly based and hiring remains depressed, but that is less worrisome because layoffs remain low for now. On the internals, the Quits rate ticked higher, but it is still relatively low, highlighting that workers with jobs are more likely to stay put. OxEco adds, while the Fed is giving more weight to inflation in setting policy as it monitors the impact of tariffs, the Quits rate signals that wage growth is not a source of inflationary pressure. Overall, Oxford quips there was nothing in the JOLTS report to shift the Fed out of its wait-and-see mode, and thus expects the first rate cut in December, but the risk is growing that cut grows to 50bps. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June rose to 49.0 (exp. 48.8, prev. 48.5), albeit remaining in contractionary territory. Prices paid unexpectedly lifted to 69.7 (exp. 69.0, prev. 69.4), while New Orders and Employment fell to 46.4 (prev. 47.6) and 45.0 (exp. 47.0, prev. 46.8), respectively. Production lifted back into expansionary territory, while Inventories, New Export Orders, and Imports all rose but remained sub-50. Within the respondents’ comments, tariffs remained front and centre and continued to highlight the uncertainty for businesses. Recapping a few, 1) “Business has notably slowed in last four to six weeks. Customers do not want to make commitments in the wake of massive tariff uncertainty.” 2) “The tariff mess has utterly stopped sales globally and domestically. Everyone is on pause. Orders have collapsed.” 3) “Tariffs continue to cause confusion and uncertainty for long-term procurement decisions. The situation remains too volatile to firmly put such plans into place.” 4) “The word that best describes the current market outlook is ‘uncertainty.’ The erratic trade policy with on-again/off-again tariffs has led to price uncertainty for customers”. Nonetheless, looking to the US jobs report on Thursday (a day earlier due to US Independence Day), due to the Employment sub-index declining, Oxford Economics says it supports their expectations for manufacturing employment to record another decline in the June employment report due out Thursday. Fed Chair Powell in a panel discussion at Sintra with Bank of Japan’s Ueda, Bank of England’s Bailey, ECB’s Lagarde, and BoK’s Rhee, refused to rule out anything in regards to the July meeting, and said he can’t say if July is too soon to cut rates, and would not take any meeting off the table and repeated the data dependant approach. The Chair added US economy is in a pretty good position, and inflation has come down close to target, and the economy is healthy overall. On tariffs, note they have not seen any effect yet, but expect higher readings over the summer. Ahead, Powell noted a solid majority of FOMC participants think it will be appropriate to reduce rates later this year, something we have seen from most committee members, while Waller and Bowman remain the dovish outliers and have opened the door for a July reduction. Moreover, Powell echoed that rates are modestly restrictive at this level. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed higher on Tuesday by 0.86% and 1.07% respectively.
To mark my 3200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 150 points yesterday on the first trading day for July after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.11% lower at a price of 6198.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 400 points higher for a 0.91% gain at a price of 44,494.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.89% lower at a price of 22,478.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.21% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.48% lower at a price of 39,796.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.57% lower.
The Euro closed 0.25% higher at $1.1790.
The British Pound closed 0.21% higher at $1.3739.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.35% closing at $143.76.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points lower at 4.46%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.57%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 4.27%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.86% higher at $65.67 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.07% higher at $3337.10 an ounce.
Today on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Unemployment at 10.00 am followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Finally, we have the ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Tuesday’s session saw plenty of rotation in the market, with the NASDAQ 100 falling by approximately 0.9%, while the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) rose by 1.2%. This divergence has put the RSP on the verge of becoming overbought itself, with an RSI at 69.1 and trading above its upper Bollinger Band. The move higher in the RSP caused the SPY-to-RSP ratio to fall yesterday. As previously noted, the ratio is now in a range associated with past pullbacks in the S&P 500—specifically, July 2024, December 2024, and February 2025. If these dates sound familiar, there is good reason and this is one ratio worth keeping a close eye on. The 21-day realised volatility has likely declined about as much as it is going to for now, unless trading becomes extremely quiet, something like less than 0.5% movement per day. Given that we have the jobs report on Thursday and the tariff deadline next week, the calendar does not seem particularly supportive of such calm trading conditions. Overnight the S&P hit my sell range for a now 6213 short position. I will now add to this trade on any further move higher to 6233 with a now higher 6251 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 6185. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro made a new high for 2025. This move higher saw my second sell level at 1.1810 triggered for a now 1.1770 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level to 1.1680 while leaving my tight 1.1865 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
There remains zero confidence in the Dollar which made a new year-to-date low at 96.62 overnight. If we get clarity on tariffs then we should get some confidence and the Dollar should rally. The Daily Chart is certainly set up for that given how oversold the market is. I am still long at an average rate of 97.40 with a now lower 98.00 T/P level. I will leave my 96.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. Today, I will again raise my buy level to 2080/2160 with a higher 2015 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2205.
FTSE 100
The FTSE continues to struggle following its massive rally in April/May. Of note is that the seasonal chart for the FTSE is weak from here until the end of September. There is every chance that over the next few weeks the FTSE could fall back to the key 8450 support area. With the FTSE trading at 8810 this morning, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 8840/8910 with the same 8965 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 8770.
Dow Rolling Contract
Thankfully we had no sell level in the Dow yesterday given the fact that it is trading 500 points higher from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. The Dow has strong resistance at its Feb all-time high of 45100. Today, I will be a seller from 44900/45150 with a tight 45305 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 44610. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Tuesday’s sell-off in the NDX saw the market hit my 22550 T/P level on my latest 22710 short position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 22650/22800 with the same 23005 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 22480. The NDX has short-term support from 21800/21950. I will be a small buyer on any move lower to this range with a 21595 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 22130.
December BUND
I am still long the Bund from last week at 130.20 with the same 128.75 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. Today I will lower my T/P level to 130.70 which is just below Tuesday’s intra-day high. Meanwhile, I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 129.40. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Gold is trading higher at 3335 this morning. I find it very hard to buy Gold at these levels and I certainly have no interest in shorting the market despite how overvalued Gold is at this time. Gold has support from 3250/3270. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 3225 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3295.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: Silver has support below from 33.80/34.80. As I do not want to chase the market higher this is the only level that I will be comfortable in buying Silver. We have had a nice run in this market over the past three years so from here patience will now be the key. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 35.60.
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