U.S. Indices ultimately closed in the green on Tuesday with both the RUSSELL 2000 and NASDAQ 100 leading the gains, although sectors were mixed. Defensives lagged with Utilities, Staples and Health Care all red, while Energy, Communications and Tech were bid. Market focus remains on tariff updates with the US having agreed to delay implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico by 1 month, although no concessions were made by China in time and they will face the additional 10% tariffs. China responded with retaliatory measures, and even announced a probe on Nvidia (NVDA), Google (GOOGL) and Intel (INTC). Nonetheless, the response is being framed as limited. Trump and Xi were reportedly set to speak on Tuesday, but it was later reported there will be no conversation today, and Trump later said that he would speak to Xi at some point, but he is in no rush to do so. T-Notes chopped to trade updates but ultimately settled in the green with focus on tariffs ahead of QRA, ISM Services and NFP, while the latest JOLTS data was dovish, providing a helping hand to Treasuries. The Dollar underperformed with outperformance in the Canadian Dollar on the last minute agreement, seeing USD/CAD pare from recent peaks. Oil prices were choppy, selling off overnight on the US/Canada deal but rallying on reports that Trump is to sign a memo exerting maximum pressure on Iran. However, crude futures fell from peaks post settlement, as when Trump signed it said it was a tough thing to do, and hopefully they will not have to implement it. The December JOLTS data saw job openings fall to 7.6 million from 8.156 million, beneath the expected 8.0 million. Overall, hires and total separations were little changed at 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little. The vacancy rate eased to 4.5% with prior revised up to 4.9% from 4.8%, while the quits rate was unchanged at 2.0%, albeit the prior was revised up from 1.9%. Analysts at Oxford Economics highlights the data “painted a familiar picture of the labour market, with a low pace of layoffs keeping net job growth positive despite a slow pace of hiring”. The desk also acknowledges that although job openings fell more than expected, the job openings-to-unemployed ratio has been relatively stable on a trend basis for the last several months. Goolsbee 2025 voter (dove) said that uncertainties likely mean the Fed needs to be a little more careful and prudent on cutting rates. He said there are risks that inflation could tick back up. Goolsbee warned that if fiscal choices affect prices or employment, they have to think it through. He noted the US has seen strong growth and a strong consumer but there are concerns about inflation. The Chicago Fed President said it would be hard to tell the difference if rising prices are a sign of overheating or a one-time effect of tariffs, reiterating the Fed might have to slow the pace of rate cuts amid uncertainty. Meanwhile, Fed Member Daly said the economy is in a very good place and the Fed can take its time to look at data and policy changes. There is continued momentum in the economy though there is uncertainty, while business contacts are optimistic. The San Francisco President said the Fed has not finished the job on inflation yet and they have to make sure they get inflation down. In addition, the Fed is in a good position to wait and see. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 0.5% while Gold continued its recent gains, by closing at a new all-time with a 1% rise.
To mark my 3125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday as none of my calls were hit and is still ahead by 635 points for February, after closing January with a gain of 2768 points, after closing December with a gain of 1997 points after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Recent Comments