U.S. Indices ultimately closed in the green on Tuesday with both the RUSSELL 2000 and NASDAQ 100 leading the gains, although sectors were mixed. Defensives lagged with Utilities, Staples and Health Care all red, while Energy, Communications and Tech were bid. Market focus remains on tariff updates with the US having agreed to delay implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico by 1 month, although no concessions were made by China in time and they will face the additional 10% tariffs. China responded with retaliatory measures, and even announced a probe on Nvidia (NVDA), Google (GOOGL) and Intel (INTC). Nonetheless, the response is being framed as limited. Trump and Xi were reportedly set to speak on Tuesday, but it was later reported there will be no conversation today, and Trump later said that he would speak to Xi at some point, but he is in no rush to do so. T-Notes chopped to trade updates but ultimately settled in the green with focus on tariffs ahead of QRA, ISM Services and NFP, while the latest JOLTS data was dovish, providing a helping hand to Treasuries. The Dollar underperformed with outperformance in the Canadian Dollar on the last minute agreement, seeing USD/CAD pare from recent peaks. Oil prices were choppy, selling off overnight on the US/Canada deal but rallying on reports that Trump is to sign a memo exerting maximum pressure on Iran. However, crude futures fell from peaks post settlement, as when Trump signed it said it was a tough thing to do, and hopefully they will not have to implement it. The December JOLTS data saw job openings fall to 7.6 million from 8.156 million, beneath the expected 8.0 million. Overall, hires and total separations were little changed at 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little. The vacancy rate eased to 4.5% with prior revised up to 4.9% from 4.8%, while the quits rate was unchanged at 2.0%, albeit the prior was revised up from 1.9%. Analysts at Oxford Economics highlights the data “painted a familiar picture of the labour market, with a low pace of layoffs keeping net job growth positive despite a slow pace of hiring”. The desk also acknowledges that although job openings fell more than expected, the job openings-to-unemployed ratio has been relatively stable on a trend basis for the last several months. Goolsbee 2025 voter (dove) said that uncertainties likely mean the Fed needs to be a little more careful and prudent on cutting rates. He said there are risks that inflation could tick back up. Goolsbee warned that if fiscal choices affect prices or employment, they have to think it through. He noted the US has seen strong growth and a strong consumer but there are concerns about inflation. The Chicago Fed President said it would be hard to tell the difference if rising prices are a sign of overheating or a one-time effect of tariffs, reiterating the Fed might have to slow the pace of rate cuts amid uncertainty. Meanwhile, Fed Member Daly said the economy is in a very good place and the Fed can take its time to look at data and policy changes. There is continued momentum in the economy though there is uncertainty, while business contacts are optimistic. The San Francisco President said the Fed has not finished the job on inflation yet and they have to make sure they get inflation down. In addition, the Fed is in a good position to wait and see. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 0.5% while Gold continued its recent gains, by closing at a new all-time with a 1% rise.
To mark my 3125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday as none of my calls were hit and is still ahead by 635 points for February, after closing January with a gain of 2768 points, after closing December with a gain of 1997 points after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.72% higher at a price of 6037.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 134 points higher for a 0.30% gain at a price of 44,556.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.26% higher at a price of 21,526.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.22% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.72% higher at a price of 38,798.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.94% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.0380.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.2479.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.7% closing at $154.27.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher 2.40%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 4.53%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.51%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.5% lower% higher at $72.74 a barrel.
Gold closed 1% higher at $2843 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Composite PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and a speech from Fed Member Barkin at 12.30 pm. This is followed by the ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Composite PMI at 2.45 pm, followed at 3.00 pm by ISM Manufacturing. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Goolsbee, Bowman and Jefferson at 1.00 pm, 3.00 pm and 7.30 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
There is no doubt that both Trump and Elon are dominating every single news cycle. Trump announced that the U.S. is to establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund. Similar to Norway perhaps. And guess what? These funds by American stocks. Switzerland has been buying U.S. tech stocks for many years. The consequence of this latest announcement is that the wealth funds buy US stocks implying that when set up the US Government will buy US stocks and of course crypto for the entire crew who own crypto. The only way a Sovereign Wealth Fund can buy these stocks is via the issuance of more debt. How do bears have any chance when you have intervention on this scale. However, the $NYSI is close to been maximum overbought, same with the $NYHILO. Both have room to move higher but are flagging caution here at least as far as I am concerned. I will not chase the market here as I wait until the market corrects first. Today, I will raise my S&P sell level slightly to 6058/6078 with a higher 6093 ‘’Closing Stop’’
EUR/USD
The Euro built momentum on Tuesday’s late turn around, trading at 1.0380 this morning. I am still long the Euro from last week at an average rate of 1.0400 with the same 1.0315 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will leave my T/P level at 1.0430 unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar just missed my initial 109.20 sell level before falling 1% and I am still flat. The Dollar is trading below 108.00 this morning. We have support below from 106.90/107.60 where I will be a buyer with a 106.35 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Russell 2000
The Russell just missed Tuesday’s buy range, and I am still flat. It is interesting that the Rusell continues to find resistance at its 50-Day Moving Average which comes in at a price of 2289 this morning. I am not going to chase the market higher as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 2140/2220 with the same 2075 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2270.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE again traded heavy on Tuesday, never coming close to my sell range and I am still flat. The FTSE has two large ‘’Open Gaps’’ below which need to be filled before I am comfortable in going long again. I will now lower my FTSE sell level to 8600/8670 with a lower 8725 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change: Investors are programmed to buy every dip. With 14 Billionaires part of Trump’s Cabinet, it is hard to see how we do get a well overdue correction which is certainly something these Billionaires have no interest in seeing. The Dow has further resistance from 44800/45050 where I will be a small seller with a 45305 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be long the market at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Frustratingly the NDX missed Tuesday’s 21600 initial sell level by 14 points before falling 140 points off this high into the close and I am still flat. Despite how overbought the NDX is trading I will not chase the market lower leaving my 21610/21760 sell level unchanged with the same 21905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P at 21490. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time. The NDX trendline keeps getting saved on all sell-offs but the more times this line gets tagged the weaker support line becomes. One of these sell-offs is not coming back and it is why I am waiting patiently for a proper sell-off before initiating a long position. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
The Bund traded in a narrow 60-point range yesterday and I am still flat. Given how low Bund Yields are trading, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 133.70/134.40 with the same 135.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continued to build on Monday’s low, closing at a price of 2843 last night. Despite Gold been severely overbought, I will now raise my sell level to 2862/2878 with a higher 2891 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver never came close to Monday’s buy range, closing 3% higher and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 31.00/31.80 with a higher 29.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 32.50.
Recent Comments