U.S. Indices closed largely in the red as they saw a notable sell-off into the close amid a chunky market imbalance, in what was a very choppy day of trade. Initially, on Tuesday, there was a significant risk-off sentiment which saw US equity futures and the crude complex heavily sold, with Treasuries bid, amid US growth concerns which was further exacerbated by a poor RCM/TIPP economic optimism print, and also the implementation of Trump tariffs on China/Mexico/Canada. Meanwhile, in the FX space, the Dollar was seeing losses and trading off of the US growth woes, which saw safe-haven FX (CHF, JPY) outperform. However, CAD, MXN, and CNH were sold as Trump tariffs took effect before China, Canadian PM Trudeau and Mexican President Sheinbaum all responded. Nonetheless, it was a very choppy day, Treasuries pared early US strength, as did CAD and MXN weakness, as risk sentiment reversed through the US afternoon, albeit not on a clear headline driver. On top of this, US equity futures also turned green, buoyed by the turn in sentiment, before the quick aforementioned sell-off into the close. In the FX space, the Euro ended sharply higher up as the G10 FX outperformer against the Buck and was buoyed following CDU leader Merz saying Germany plans reform of debt brake, and the economy must be brought back on a growth path, with credit financed special fund worth EUR 500bln. Continuing to highlight the reverse in sentiment, JPY closed the day flat after initial outperformance amid haven appeal amid the said growth concerns. Sectors closed exclusively in the red with Financials lagging, amid heavy selling in mega-cap names as potential known themes weighed in the space. Elsewhere, Fed’s Williams does not see the need to change the rate policy right now and it’s really hard to know what Fed will do with rates this year. On data, added worth watching University of Michigan inflation expectations and New York Fed data thus far has shown more stable inflation expectations. Re. tariffs, stated will see some impact on inflation from them, and Fed Minutes on the balance sheet did not change ultimate goals. Overnight, all attention will be on President Trump’s Congress address, whereby Reuters sources said Trump has told advisers he wants to announce the Ukraine minerals deal during Tuesday’s speech to Congress, cautioning that the deal had yet to be signed and the situation could change.
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