U.S. Indices closed largely in the red as they saw a notable sell-off into the close amid a chunky market imbalance, in what was a very choppy day of trade. Initially, on Tuesday, there was a significant risk-off sentiment which saw US equity futures and the crude complex heavily sold, with Treasuries bid, amid US growth concerns which was further exacerbated by a poor RCM/TIPP economic optimism print, and also the implementation of Trump tariffs on China/Mexico/Canada. Meanwhile, in the FX space, the Dollar was seeing losses and trading off of the US growth woes, which saw safe-haven FX (CHF, JPY) outperform. However, CAD, MXN, and CNH were sold as Trump tariffs took effect before China, Canadian PM Trudeau and Mexican President Sheinbaum all responded. Nonetheless, it was a very choppy day, Treasuries pared early US strength, as did CAD and MXN weakness, as risk sentiment reversed through the US afternoon, albeit not on a clear headline driver. On top of this, US equity futures also turned green, buoyed by the turn in sentiment, before the quick aforementioned sell-off into the close. In the FX space, the Euro ended sharply higher up as the G10 FX outperformer against the Buck and was buoyed following CDU leader Merz saying Germany plans reform of debt brake, and the economy must be brought back on a growth path, with credit financed special fund worth EUR 500bln. Continuing to highlight the reverse in sentiment, JPY closed the day flat after initial outperformance amid haven appeal amid the said growth concerns. Sectors closed exclusively in the red with Financials lagging, amid heavy selling in mega-cap names as potential known themes weighed in the space. Elsewhere, Fed’s Williams does not see the need to change the rate policy right now and it’s really hard to know what Fed will do with rates this year. On data, added worth watching University of Michigan inflation expectations and New York Fed data thus far has shown more stable inflation expectations. Re. tariffs, stated will see some impact on inflation from them, and Fed Minutes on the balance sheet did not change ultimate goals. Overnight, all attention will be on President Trump’s Congress address, whereby Reuters sources said Trump has told advisers he wants to announce the Ukraine minerals deal during Tuesday’s speech to Congress, cautioning that the deal had yet to be signed and the situation could change.
To mark my 3150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 318 points yesterday and is now down by 266 points for March after closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.22% lower at a price of 5778.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 670 points lower for a 1.55% loss at a price of 42,520.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.36% lower at a price of 20,352.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 2.14% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.1% lower at a price of 37,430.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.8% lower.
The Euro closed 1.2% higher at $1.0610.
The British Pound closed 0.7% higher at 1.2790.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $149.92.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.52%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 4.54%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points higher at 4.21%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.2% higher at $68.40 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.4% higher at $2915.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Composite PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed by Euro-Zone PPI at 10.00 am and U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Next, we have U.S. ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm and Composite PMI at 2.45 pm. At 3.00 pm we have Durable Goods Orders and ISM Manufacturing. Finally, at 7.00 pm we have the Beige Book.
Cash S&P 500
We are witnessing some of the most volatile price action since the September/October 2022 lows. This increase in volatility is all down to President Trump who just loves to hear himself speak. Overnight, he addressed Congress for an incredible one hour and forty minutes which I believe is a new record. He did not say anything new in his address only that the tariffs will be implemented and that he hopes the House will approve tax cuts for everyone. Yesterday, the S&P hit a low at 5733 which was just above my 200 Day Moving Average target price before soaring to a high at 8.15 pm at a price of 5865. Incredibly, the S&P fell 90 handles from this high into the cash closing before rallying strongly in the after hours. Although the Fear and Greed Index closed weak last night at a price of 20, it is still above last Friday’s extreme reading of 16 which is another positive divergence in a market that is extremely oversold. Tuesday’s move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 5832 average long position. Hopefully, you were able to buy some more of the S&P on the test of the 200 Day MA before the market ripped higher. When volatility increases it is important to trade in smaller size so you can try and stay with a position. This is now a day trading environment at best and the political backdrop makes it virtually impossible to have an investment or trade thesis, especially if any trade can instantly be vaporised by a tweet without notice. So, handicapping this market here is fraught with massive uncertainty and there is nothing easy about it. And hence the real question becomes how much the market is willing to tolerate here without a major risk off event besides what we have already seen. The market is sending Trump a message. While initial tariff announcements have been perceived as perhaps beneficial with the Dollar rising yesterday’s announcements saw the Dollar dump hard. This suggests that markets may now see tariffs as bad for the economy and what was yield relief may be at the cusp to turning to yield terror. This means that recession risk is suddenly at the front and centre and this here is certainly not helping the Atlanta GDP reading which is now at -2.8%. It is hard to see this being real, but it sends a massive signal: The economy is slowing and frankly Trump is risking tariffing the economy into recession. And hence the question of how far he is willing to take all this and how much his donors are willing to tolerate it at costs to their portfolios. My gut tells me markets are signalling for him the line is here. Will he listen? No idea. I will lower my S&P stop to a closing price of 5789. I will also lower my T/P level to 5862 which is just below yesterday afternoon’s high print. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 5730. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I have had the correct view in looking to buy the Euro on dips but yesterday the Euro ran away from buy range, trading at a price of 1.0620 this morning. The Euro has rallied over 300 points since Friday and is now short-term overbought. The 200 Day Moving Average is at 1.0735. Any tag of this key resistance area should be met initially by strong selling. Therefore, I will be a strong seller from 1.0680/1.0750 with a 1.0815 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be a buyer of the Euro at this time. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.0620.
Dollar Index
The Dollar saw noticeable weakness again on Tuesday. This move lower saw my buy second buy level at 106.15 triggered for a now 106.50 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 106.90 while leaving my 105.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell sold off to my 2080 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 2130 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 2030 while leaving my 1985 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE continues to trade in narrow ranges, close to all-time highs. I am still flat. Today, I will again be a seller of the FTSE from 8900/8970 with a lower 9031 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 8835. I no longer want to be a buyer of the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Wrong! I was stopped out of Monday’s 43450 average long position at 43095 and I am still flat. The Dow is extremely oversold having fallen over 3500 points in the past few weeks. So far, the Dow is getting no help from a weaker Dollar but as you know this scenario can change quickly. The Dow has further support below from 42270/42570 where I will again be a small buyer with a lower 41995 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 42950.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Frustratingly, the NDX missed yesterday’s 20700 T/P level by just 10 points before falling 350 points from this high into the close. I am still long with the same 20195 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given how oversold the NDX is trading I will leave my 20700 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund got hit hard on Tuesday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 131.30 average long position. I will leave my 130.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 131.80. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: Gold continues to attract large buying on any dip, wiping out all of Friday’s sell-off in a bid only session on Monday. I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 2830/2846 with a higher 2817 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2863.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver is trading at a price of 32.12 as I go to press. I have now exited my average 31.75 long position here and I am now flat. Silver has support below from 30.70/31.50 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 29.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 32.20.
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