U.S Equity Markets were choppy on Tuesday with the S&P 500 closing little changed. However both the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 closed lower. Futures Markets are lower after the close following weaker than expected earnings from both Microsoft and Google. U.S. data was on the firmer side with a surprise rise in JOLTS job openings and a rise in Consumer Confidence (albeit slightly less than expected), meanwhile, European GDP figures were lacklustre and the Spanish inflation figures came in hot, sending a warning shot ahead of the French and German figures on Wednesday. However, the downbeat growth sentiment was offset after the IMF upgraded its 2024 global growth forecasts on account of an improving outlook for the U.S. and China. Treasuries saw large flattening in a ‘twist’ (front end sold and long end bid) after the rise in JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence ahead of Wednesday’s refunding and FOMC. Oil prices were firmer amid ongoing Middle East tensions, Saudi efforts to reduce its production capacity, and the IMF’s growth upgrades. FX volume was very low with the Dollar Index flat and in tight ranges. In stocks, UPS posted a poor report and guidance, weighed on by weak e-commerce (weighing on AMZN), leading it to cut 12,000 jobs. GM surged higher on a strong quarter and guidance, benefitting from an absence of UAW strikes and cost-cutting measures. Pulte (PHM) lifted homebuilders on its optimistic 2024 commentary amid surging new orders as it benefits from the falling mortgage rates. The US JOLTS job openings rose to 9.026 million in December, up from the prior 8.925 million (which was revised up from 8.79 million), despite expectations for a decline to 8.75 million and was also marginally above the highest forecast of 9.00 million. Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics write that the jump in job openings tells us very little, noting the numbers are erratic, frequently revised and provide no real guide to payrolls. However, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.2%, Pantheon put more weight on this, saying it points to wage growth on the Employment Cost Index falling from a 4.5% Y/Y pace in Q3 to around 3.5% by the middle of this year, a level consistent with the Fed’s inflation target. Meanwhile, Consumer Confidence for January rose to 114.8, the highest since December 2021, from 108.0 but was short of the expected 115.0. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.38% higher while Gold was flat following a quiet trading session.
To mark my 2925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 33 points yesterday and is now head by 3505 points for January. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.06% lower at a price of 4924.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 133 points higher for a 0.35% gain at a price of 38,467.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.68% lower at a price of 17,476.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.16% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.1% higher at a price of 36,065.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.14% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0845.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2699.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $147.60.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.26%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points lower at 3.91%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower 4.06%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.30% higher at $77.38 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $2036.10 an ounce.
The morning on the Economic Front we have German Retail Sales and the Import/Export Price Index at 7.00am, followed by German Unemployment Figures at 8.55 am. Next, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and German CPI at 1.00 pm. This is followed by the ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm and the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have the FOMC Statement at 7.00 pm followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 7.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P traded in a narrow range for most of yesterday’s session before closing flat. However weaker earnings from both Microsoft and Google after the close sees the S&P traded 20 Handles lower at 4904 as I go to press. There is no doubt I would have been better off being short the S&P rather than the Dow but here we are. There are so many similarities in markets now as they were before the COVID crash making it extremely difficult to have a long position on board. I have never seen a situation when the S&P closed last night close to all time highs while at the same time the 14 Day RSI for the $BPSPX is at 40 and the $NYSI is almost max oversold. Even though I expect a rally in the S&P ahead of the FOMC Statement I am reluctant to buy the market here and will instead concentrate in shorting the S&P on rallies. I will now lower my sell level to 4926/4941 with a lower 4953 ”Closing Stop”.
EUR/USD
No Change. The Euro traded in a narrow range yesterday. I am still long from last week at 1.0835 with the same 1.0900 T/P level. I will add to this position at 1.0775 while leaving my 1.0715 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change. I will continue to look to sell the Dollar on any further rally to 104.00/104.60 with the same 105.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
I am still flat as the DAX never came close to yesterday’s buy range as the market traded in a narrow range for all of Tuesday’s session. Ahead of the FOMC, I will continue to be a small buyer on any dip lower to 16700/16790 with a lower 16635 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat as the FTSE traded I a narrow range as we wait for this evening’s FOMC Statement. I will not chase the FTSE higher, leaving my 7500/7570 buy level unchanged with the same 7435 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7615.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still short the Dow from late Monday at a price of 34280. With the 14 Day RSI closing at 72.30 I am happy to be a seller of the Dow on rallies. I will continue to look to add to this position at 38540 while leaving my 38705 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 38150 as I want where possible to be flat ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Statement and Powell press conference. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
As I wanted to be flat the NDX ahead of Google and Microsoft earnings, I covered my latest 17510 short position at my revised 17477 T/P level and I am now flat. Worse than expected earnings sees the NDX trading lower at 17330 as I go to press. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 17500/17650 with the same 17555 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 17390. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
March BUND
The Bund just missed my initial 134.30 buy level by six points before rallying 50 points and I am still flat. Ahead of this evening’s key Fed Meeting, I will now lower my buy level in the Bund to 133.10/133.80 with a lower 132.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 134.40.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still flat Gold. As I still long both the Euro and Silver, I will leave my 1973/1998 Gold buy level unchanged with the same 1959 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I still believe in the bull case for this precious metal. I will continue to hold my 24.40 average long position with no stop or T/P level for now. This morning, Silver is trading unchanged this morning at a price of 23.22. I will look to add to my existing long position on any further move lower to 21.50. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Recent Comments