US Indices closed positive on Tuesday, grinded higher for large parts of the US session as both Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick spoke, albeit indices saw a bout of pressure on the former, but strength on the latter. The appearances come ahead of President Trump speaking this evening in Michigan where he is expected to announce auto tariff relief. On trade deals, Lutnick said one trade deal is reached with a country he does not name, whereby FBN’s Gasparino later suggested, citing word on Wall St, it is either India or South Korea. Elsewhere, regarding US data, JOLTS printed below the bottom end of analyst estimates, while consumer confidence also disappointed and tumbled beneath expectations with responses detailing tariff concerns. The advanced goods trade balance widened in March, despite expectations for a slight pull back. In wake of the data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model was updated for the last time before the official Q1 report to be released on Wednesday. It now tracks growth at -2.7% but -1.5% on a gold adjusted basis, versus the consensus for the Q1 print of +0.3%. Sectors were almost exclusively in the green, aside from Energy, which was weighed on by weakness in the crude complex. There was a deluge of earnings, with highlights including UPS, SPOT, RCL, KO, PYPL. The Dollar Index was firmer against all G10 peers, while the Canadian Dollar (flat) was the relative outperformer. T-Notes rose across the curve after the aforementioned job openings declined, consumer confidence fell, and trade deficit rose, increasing growth concerns. Ahead, the week is littered with scheduled risk events with PCE, GDP, NFP, ISM Manufacturing on the data docket and earnings from the likes of META, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN. Also, US President Trump is due to speak in Michigan overnight and confirm the auto tariff relief measures. The March JOLTS saw Job Openings fall to 7.192 million from 7.568 million, beneath the analyst consensus of 7.48 million. Meanwhile, the number of hires was little changed at 5.4 million, and was little changed in all industries. The quits rate rose to 2.1% from 2.0%, while the vacancy rate eased to 4.3% from 4.5%. Oxford Economics highlight the report showed some cooling of labour market conditions, but it is not enough to bring forward Fed rate cut expectations as the Fed will be monitoring the tariff impact on inflation. Oxford Economics continue to expect the first Fed rate cut to occur in December, which is more hawkish when compared to market pricing that has the first 25bps rate cut fully priced by July, with a 72% probability of a 25bps rate cut in June. The US goods trade deficit reached a record size in March at USD 162bln, up from February’s 148bln, despite expectations for this to dial back to USD 145bln. Analysts have warned that the surge in the deficit will likely put pressure on the Q1 GDP numbers. In wake of the data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model was updated for the last time before the official Q1 report to be released on Wednesday. It now tracks growth at -2.7% but -1.5% on a gold-adjusted basis, versus the consensus for the Q1 print of 0.3%. The widening trade deficit in goods saw imports surge by USD 16.3bln to USD 342.7bln, primarily driven by consumer goods and capital goods, while exports only rose by USD 2.2bln, to USD 180.8bln. Within the report, Wholesale Inventories rose by 0.5%, matching the last month’s print, which was revised up from 0.3%. Retail inventories (ex-auto) rose by 0.4%, above the 0.1% prior. Pantheon Macroeconomics summarises that “The picture for Q1 overall remains that President Trump’s tariff threats set off a rush to buy goods now rather than face higher prices later, prompting a startling surge in imports that has left previous blowouts in the trade deficit looking trivial.” Consumer confidence fell to 86.0 from 92.9 and beneath the expected 87.5. The Present Situation Index decreased 0.9 points to 133.5, while Expectations Index tumbled 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011. The headline fall was broad-based across all age groups, most income groups, and across all political affiliations. Within the report, average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7% in April, the highest since November 2022. The report adds that write-in responses on what topics are affecting views of the economy revealed that tariffs are now on top of consumers’ minds, with mentions of tariffs reaching an all-time high. Additionally, present situation consumers’ assessments of current business conditions were more positive in April, but consumers’ views of the labour market weakened. Expectations six months hence consumers’ outlook for business conditions fell further, and consumers’ outlook for the labour market outlook also worsened. Overall, consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic, Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board stated. Adding, “The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components, business conditions, employment prospects, and future income, all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future.” Furthermore, Guichard noted, “expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.”
To mark my 3175th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 115 points and is now ahead by 7325 points for April after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.32% higher at a price of 5560.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 300 points higher for a 0.75% gain at a price of 40,527.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.61% higher at a price of 19,544.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.36% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.38% higher at a price of 35,839.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.24% higher.
The Euro closed 0.35% lower at $1.1378.
The British Pound closed 0.26% lower at 1.3396.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.11% closing at $142.30.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.50%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower at 4.48%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points lower at 4.17%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.82% lower at $60.30 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.78% lower at $3317.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Retail Sales and the Import/Export Price Index at 7.00 am, followed by the Unemployment Rate at 8.55 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone GDP at 10.00 am and U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. At 12.30 PM we have the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, followed by German CPI at 1.00 pm. This is followed by U.S. ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm and GDP at 1.30 pm. At 2.45 pm we have the latest Chicago PMI reading. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Pending Home Sales and the PCE Index.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P has now closed higher for six consecutive trading sessions. As I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary that the S&P is heading towards key technical resistance points. The first of these is the 50 Day Moving Average which comes in at a price of 5613 this morning. Above this we have the large ‘’Open Gap’’ from early April at 5670. With so many outside influences on the market it can be tricky to get an edge at this time. I mean, heck, tariff war aside, we live in a world where anything could happen these days. Peace between Russia and Ukraine, India invading Pakistan, Israel bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. Even on Monday Spain and Portugal lost their entire power grid with large parts of their countries coming to an entire halt without warning and no clear explanation as to the cause. Stuff happens all the time these days. Hence it would be intellectually disingenuous to express certainty about anything. Tuesday’s rally saw the S&P hit my sell range for a now 5568 short position. I will look to add to this position at 5598 while leaving my 5625 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged which is just above the current 50-Day Moving Average. I will have a T/P level on this position at 5549. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
While Equity Market trade as if a new tariff deal is in place, both the Euro and Dollar trade as if there is no sign of any imminent deal been announced. I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 1.1450/1.1550 with the same 1.1635 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1360. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar at 99.30 from last week with the same 99.70 T/P level. I will look to add to this position on any further move lower to 98.50 while leaving my 97.85 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat the Russell Index. Today, I will raise my buy level to 1860/1930 with a higher 1795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1990. I still do not want to be short the Russell at this time.
FTSE 100
Wrong! I was finally stopped out of my 8360 average short position at 8475 and I am now flat. The FTSE has further resistance from 8550/8620 where I will again be a seller with a higher 8685 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 8480. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The late rally in the Dow saw the market hit Tuesday’s sell range for a now 40620 short position. I will look to add to this position on any further rally to 40920 with a higher 41205 ‘Closing Stop’. As I am also short the S&P, I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 40490. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change: I am still flat. Given the number of negative divergences in the NASDAQ following last week’s aggressive rally I will continue to look to sell the NDX on any further rally. The NDX has short-term resistance from 19650/19850 where I will be a seller with a 20005 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 19530. The NDX has short-term support from 18600/18800. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to this area with the same 18375 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 19030.
December BUND
The Bund again traded in a narrow range on Tuesday and I am still flat. Ahead of today’s key economic data on both sides of the Atlantic, I will not chase the Bund lower as I continue to be a small seller from 132.20/133.10 with the same 133.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 131.40. I still do not want to be long the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
The two-way volatility in Gold continues and I am still flat. While I am afraid to short the market I do not have much interest in buying Gold especially as the market is still severely overbought. Today, I will lower my Gold buy level to 3200/3240 with a lower 3178 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3261.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver again traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours and I am still flat. Ahead of today’s key economic releases I will now lower my Silver buy level to 31.30/32.20 with a lower 29.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 33.05.
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