U.S. Indexes closed at new all-time highs, led by all three American Indexes with NVIDIA largely responsible for the move as breadth across sectors was poor. NVIDIA’s (NVDA, +5%) gains came amid CEO Huang’s keynote address at GTC, where new lines of products and roadmaps were unveiled, including NVIDIA Arc, 17 quantum builders, and 7 new AI supercomputers. The Co. sees USD 500 billion of business in the next five quarters. Also supporting Tech was Microsoft (MSFT, +2%), gaining after signing a new pact with OpenAI, which includes OpenAI being contracted to purchase USD 25 billion of Azure services as well as removing fundraising constraints for OpenAI. On the flip side, Real Estate was the biggest loser with poor guidance from Alexandria Real Estate (ARE, -19.2%) weighing. In FX, the Dollar was broadly weaker against peers. The Australian Dollar outperformed as optimism over US-China trade relations improved, with the latest Wall Street Journal reports suggesting that US President Trump and China’s President Xi to discuss lowering China tariffs in exchange for a crackdown on fentanyl. Details/outcome on an agreement will be dependent on the meeting between the two leaders this week. Sterling underperformed as fiscal concerns remain, and easing in BRC food inflation adds to recent dovish Bank of England bets. Separately, Treasuries were slightly bid across the curve, showing little reaction towards US data and supply. The US 7 Year Note Auction was met with soft direct demand, leaving a higher dealer take-down and a larger-than-average tail. Data saw ADP’s first preliminary estimate of an average increase of 14,250 jobs in the four weeks ending on October 11th. Meanwhile, Consumer Confidence fell one point as concerns remain over tariffs/inflation, but topped expectations, while the Richmond Fed improved in September, driven by increases in shipments, new orders, and employment. Regarding commodities, crude prices were weighed by continued concerns over OPEC+ supply increases outweighing the Gaza ceasefire coming to a halt as Israel strikes Gaza in response to Hamas violations earlier in the day. Gold fell for the third consecutive day as profit-taking persists. US Consumer Confidence fell to 94.6 from an upwardly revised 95.6. Originally, expectations were for a decline to 93.2 from 94.2. The Present Situation Index rose to129.3 from 127.5, and the Expectations Index declined 2.9 points to 71.5. Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations inched up to 5.9% from 5.8%. Consumers indicated that they will likely buy fewer goods in the upcoming holidays if tariffs inflate the price of imported items. 27.8% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful” (previously 26.9% in September), while 18.4% said jobs were “hard to get” (previously 18.2%). Ahead six months: 15.8% of consumers expected more jobs to be available (previously 16.6%), 27.8% anticipated fewer jobs (previously 25.7%), 12.5% expected their incomes to decrease (previously 11.7%); Consumers’ perceived likelihood of a US recession over the next 12 months declined in October, but more consumers thought a recession had already started. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board, writes, “Consumers’ write-in responses were led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy. References to tariffs declined further this month but remained elevated. References to US politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.” In October, the Richmond Fed Composite Index rose to -4 from -17 in September. All three of the component indices lifted – shipments notably rose to 4 from -20, while new orders and employment remain negative but printed -6 (prev. -15) and -10 (prev. -15), respectively. Local business conditions improved to -1 from -12, while the index for future business conditions fell to -5 from -1. Elsewhere ahead, shipments lifted to 13 (prev. 0), new orders to 12 (prev. 8), while employment was nearly unchanged at 2. On the inflationary gauges, prices paid and received notably fell in October; while looking ahead, they also saw a chunky decline. Backlog of orders lifted, but remains firmly below 0, while lead time decreased to 6 from 10. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 2.25% while Gold ended Tuesday’s session with a 0.66% loss following another two-way volatile session.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 3957 points for October after closing September with a gain of 3774 points after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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