US stocks were mixed on return from the long weekend as participants digested several data releases including firm US Consumer Confidence metrics and with yields edging higher following soft US 2-year and 5-year auctions, while the latest Fed rhetoric failed to add anything incremental to the narrative although Fed Member Kashkari once again warned that if inflation does not progress lower, then rate hikes could be on the agenda. Nonetheless, the Nasdaq-100 was supported by continued upside in NVDA post-earnings, while the S&P 500 was flat and the DJIA underperformed. USD was little changed on the day and the DXY remained within a tight parameter between 104.33-104.64 with initial weakness reversed amid upside in yields and after a firmer-than-expected Consumer Confidence report which also saw the 12mth inflation expectations move higher to 5.4% from 5.3%.
To mark my 3000th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 43 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1538 points for May, having finished April with a gain of 4010 points after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.02% higher at a price of 5306.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 216 points lower for a 0.55% loss at a price of 38,852.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.32% higher at a price of 18,869.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.60% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.2% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.11% lower at a price of 38,855.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.01% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0862.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2759.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $157.10.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.60%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 4.28%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points higher at 4.54%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.23% higher at $80.23 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% higher at $2358.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Confidence at 7.00 am and Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am. Next, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and German CPI at 1.00 pm. This is followed by the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm and a Seven Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm. Finally, we have the Fed’s Beige Book at 7.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P got hit hard yesterday, trading to just above its 5 EMA with a 5280 low print before attracting buyers. This bounce back saw the S&P close 0.02% higher at a price of 5306. There is every chance that the S&P can rally to the top of its Daily Bollinger Band at 5400. This has been a target level by me for many months. However, there are so many reasons why I cannot be long the S&P at these levels given the over stretched markets. I am now long the Dow which makes more sense given the extent of last week’s and yesterday’s sell-off. I am still flat the S&P as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy/sell levels. The closer we get to the 5400-target level the weekly divergence keeps screaming major caution. This may trigger something sinister if it triggers. I am not necessarily calling for this scenario to play out, but the S&P is potentially setting up for a major risk-off event. One question to ponder: Cash is earning 5% plus in U.S Banks. Risk free. Is it really worth chasing the S&P higher from here with the VIX at 12 and the market trading at 188% Market Cap to GDP. I don’t think so. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 5330/5346 with the same 5361 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 5254/5270. I will now raise my buy level to this range with a higher 5239 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
The boring sideway price action continues for the Euro and I am still flat. I will not chase the market higher, leaving my 1.0740/1.0810 buy level unchanged with the same tight 1.0695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 1.0860.
Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar. This morning the Dollar is trading unchanged at 104.60. I will continue to be a small buyer on any dip lower to 103.60/104.30 with the same 103.15 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked well as the market sold off to my 14640-buy level before rallying to my revised 14685 T/P level and I am now flat. The DAX has further short-term support below from 18450/18540 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 13375 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the market at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
After the FTSE hit my 8250 buy level, we had a small rally to my revised 8267 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 8140/8210 with a lower 8075 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The FTSE has resistance from 8380/8460 where I will still be a seller with an 8525 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow closed a further 0.55% lower yesterday, following last week’s 2.33% fall. This move lower sees the 2-hour RSI at it most oversold reading since last October’s low. This new low came on a positive divergence hence its makes sense to try and hang on to a long Dow position after the market hit my buy range for a 38780 long position. For now, I am happy to hold this position against my offside short NDX trade. Normally a 1200-point fall in the Dow would matter but not in these markets as the VIX has now closed below 13 for the ninth consecutive trading session. The last time the VIX closed for that many consecutive days below 13 was in September/October 2018 when we had 12 closes below this key benchmark. For what it is worth the VIX hit 28 two weeks later. Remember low volatility can breathe extreme complacency and things can change quickly out of the blue. I will add to this Dow long position at 38550 while leaving my 38990 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update For my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change: Despite the aggressive sell-off in the Dow, the NDX reversed Thursday’s sell-off, by closing 1% higher on Friday at a price of 18808. With the NDX having rallied almost 11% in just three weeks I just cannot be a buyer of the market at these levels. I am still short at an average rate of 18385. I don’t normally add to a position that is ‘’offside’’ but I will look to sell the NDX again on any further move higher to 18980 with the same no stop policy for now. I will leave my T/P level on this position unchanged at 18320. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
Wrong! Just before the close I was stopped out of my latest 130.95 average long Bund position at 129.85 and I am now flat. The Bund is oversold and due a bounce. Today, I will be a buyer from 128.80/129.60 with a lower 127.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 130.30.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold, refusing to chase the market higher. Gold has support from 2314/2330 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 2299 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2344.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver just missed yesterday’s buy range and I am still flat. Just like Gold above, I will not chase the market higher leaving my 30.00/31.00 buy level unchanged with the same 29.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 31.80.
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