Equity Markets again closed lower yesterday following a second consecutive sell-off into the close. The late session sell-off, which saw sectors primarily in negative territory with only Health Care, Financials and Consumer Staples closing positive. Utilities, Energy and Tech underperformed. T-Notes were choppy with initial weakness seen in response to the stronger than expected Durable Goods data before a gradual reversal into settlement, aided by a strong 5 Year Auction. Crude prices slid lower with ongoing geopolitics in the limelight ahead of OPEC JMMC next week, although sources on Tuesday suggested no change to policy. In FX, the Dollar was flat despite a hefty bid into the London fix as we approach Month/Quarter End while the Swiss Franc was the G10 laggard with little action seen elsewhere. Bitcoin was sold and gold saw slight upside. Headline Durable Goods rose 1.4% in February, above the 1.1% forecast and rising from the downwardly revised -6.9% (initially -6.2%). Ex-Defense Durables led the upside, rising 2.2% from the prior -7.9% while ex-transport rose 0.5%, above the 0.4% forecast and above the prior revised up -0.3% (initially -0.4%). Meanwhile, transportation equipment rose 3.3% after two consecutive monthly decreases. Shipments rose 1.2% after a 0.8% decrease. The nondefense capital goods orders ex aircraft rose 0.7%, above the 0.1% forecast and prior -0.4%. A rebound in volatile aircraft orders helped support the headline figure but there may be worries ahead with ongoing issues at Boeing with the CFO recently noting they do not know when the 737 production rates will ramp up, noting they have made the decision to keep production below 38/months. Since then, the Boeing (BA) CEO Calhoun announced he is to step down at the end of the year. Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights that “The only input from the Durable Goods Report into the business equipment investment component of the GDP accounts is nondefense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft, aka core capex shipments”. This component fell by 0.4%, easing from the prior 0.7% gain in January. Pantheon adds that they expect “a further drop of about 0.5% in March, given that shipments continued to run ahead of orders in February, and the ISM manufacturing survey continues to point to weak underlying demand”. This suggests to the consultancy that real core goods shipments are on course for a 2% Q/Q annualized drop in Q1. Nonetheless, PM note a rebound in heavy truck sales points to a 2.5% gain in overall equipment investment in Q1, despite the likely fall in core capex shipments. The desk continued to expect a 1% drop in real equipment investment this year, contributing to the slowdown in GDP growth. Consumer Confidence for March trivially fell to 104.7 from the prior, revised lower, 104.8 but was short of the expected 107.0. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.51% while Gold closed flat following a volatile session.
To mark my 2950th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 97 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2103 points for March. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.28% lower at a price of 5203.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points lower for a 0.08% loss at a price of 39,282.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.36% lower at a price of 18,210.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.24% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.04% lower at a price of 40,398.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.05% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0832.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2626.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $151.57.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.35%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 3.97%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.23%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.51% lower at $81.53 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $2177.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the Minutes from the last Bank of England Meeting at 9.30 am, followed by Euro-Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator at 10.00 am. Next, we have speeches from ECB Member Elderson at 12.30 pm and the Fed’s Waller at 10.00 pm. Finally, we have a seven-year Treasury Auction at 5.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Tuesday’s late sell-off in the S&P saw my revised 5215 T/P level triggered on last week’s 5217 average short position and I am now flat. Having watched the S&P hit a high at 5261 last week, I am happy to be flat. The S&P has resistance from 5245/5262 where I will be a small seller with a 5275 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in buying the S&P is on a dip lower to 5140/5156 with a tight 5129 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0845 with the same 1.0875 T/P level. I will leave my 1.0745 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still short the Dollar from last week at an average rate of 103.65. The Dollar closed last night in New York at 104.15. I will leave my 104.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged, while raising my T/P level to 103.50. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
What Recession as indicated by the Bundesbank last week? The result new all-time highs in the DAX again with the market now trading 350 points higher from last Thursday’s post Bundesbank Report. This move higher saw my 18380-sell level triggered. Ahead of the Easter Weekend there is no point in being short. As a result, I exited this long position at my revised 18358 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members, and I am now flat. I am going to stay flat the DAX until after the Easter break. I cannot buy the market here given how fried to the upside the RSI is while trying to pick a top is extremely difficult. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
No Change. The FTSE never came close to Tuesday’s sell range, and I am still flat. The FTSE has strong resistance from 8010/8080 where I will continue to be a seller with the same tight 8135 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 7780/7850 with the same 7725 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow traded in a narrow range before having a small sell-off into the close. I am still flat. I will not chase the Dow lower, leaving my 39580/39830 sell level unchanged with the same 40005 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Tuesday’s late sell-off saw the NDX hit my 18220-buy level before a small post close rally saw the market hit my 18246 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX has support below from 17980/18130 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 17885 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
The Bund had a small rally yesterday. This move higher saw me exit my latest 132.60 long position at my revised 132.86 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 131.40/132.10 with a lower 130.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold hit a high at $2200 before attracting selling, sitting at 2177 as I go to press. I am still flat. I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher, leaving my 2139/2154 buy level unchanged with the same 2127 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2165.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver struggled to follow Gold higher yesterday, before having a small 40 points sell-off into the close. Last Week’s Commitment of Traders Report revealed that Larger Speculators have aggressively bought Silver’s rally over the past three weeks. Large Specs were net-long 10.77% of total non-spreading Open Interest on March 4. They are now long 36.32% of Open Interest, more than tripling their bets which is concerning for the bullish case. This week’s size is the largest net-long position in over four years, since February 24, 2020. As a result, I will now lower my T/P level on my 24.85 average long position to 25.10. I will leave my 23.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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