U.S. Indices closed higher with outperformance in Industrials, Financials and Tech, while Consumer Staples, Real Estate and Communication lagged. Stocks had initially pared from highs into the closing bell ahead of a last minute rally. Note, today is the effective data for the MSCI August 2025 Index review balance which was announced on August 7th which might explain some of the volatility. Elsewhere, focus was largely on Trump v the Fed, with the US President announcing he is firing Cook, albeit she refused and stated she will challenge the decision by Trump. This saw the Dollar sold and the Treasury curve steepen on prospects of a more dovish Fed, which benefited low-yielding currencies like the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. Oil prices consistently moved lower throughout the session on no clear driver with eyes on inventory data after-hours, although amid potential profit taking after four straight days of gains for the crude complex. Gold prices moved higher in response to the Cook news. US data saw Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence beat expectations, but eyes remain on the 2nd estimate of GDP on Thursday and PCE on Friday. Elsewhere, UnitedHealth (UNH) took a hit in late trade on reports from Bloomberg that the ongoing criminal probe is broader than Medicare. Headline Durable Goods fell 2.8% in July, extending the decline from the 9.4% drop in June, but not as much as the expected 4.0% reduction. Ex-transport, however, Durable goods were strong, rising 1.1%, well above the prior 0.3%, the 0.2% consensus and the highest analyst estimate of 0.5%, and showing that the headline drop was primarily due to aircraft orders. Ex-defence fell by 2.5% vs the prior -9.5% but still above the -3.6% consensus. The Nondefense capital good ex aircraft orders rose 1.1%, above all analyst forecasts and the prior being revised up to -0.6% from -0.8%, while nondefense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft rose by 0.7%, accelerating from the prior 0.4%. Oxford Economics highlights that business equipment investment is on track to post another gain in Q3, albeit smaller than in Q2. Richmond Fed in August saw Revenues and Demand rise to 4 (prev. 2) and 13 (prev. 5), respectively, while the outlook indices for the future both rose. Local Business Conditions soared to 6 from -8, and also saw an improvement looking ahead. The current employment index edged lower to -1 from 0, while the forward-looking index increased notably to 20 from 4. The wages index increased to 24, and firms continued to expect to increase in wages over the next six months. On the inflationary footing, prices paid were more or less unchanged while prices received rose. Ahead, the future index for prices paid fell, but for received it increased. US President Trump ordered the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook (voter), alleging false mortgage statements, but Cook rejected his authority to do so and vowed not to resign. Williams (voter) said the US neutral interest rate may remain close to pre-pandemic levels, as structural factors like global demographics and productivity trends that kept rates low have not changed, indicating the low neutral-rate era “appears far from over.” Logan (2026 voter) warned money markets may see temporary pressure around September’s tax date and quarter-end, but said the Fed still has scope to keep reducing its balance sheet. Barkin (2027 voter) said he expects a modest adjustment in interest rates, given he expects little variation in economic activity over the rest of the year, but this could be subject to change. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 2.39% while Gold ended Tuesday’s session with a 0.54% gain.
To mark my 3225th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 2822 points for August after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Recent Comments