U.S. Indices closed higher with outperformance in Industrials, Financials and Tech, while Consumer Staples, Real Estate and Communication lagged. Stocks had initially pared from highs into the closing bell ahead of a last minute rally. Note, today is the effective data for the MSCI August 2025 Index review balance which was announced on August 7th which might explain some of the volatility. Elsewhere, focus was largely on Trump v the Fed, with the US President announcing he is firing Cook, albeit she refused and stated she will challenge the decision by Trump. This saw the Dollar sold and the Treasury curve steepen on prospects of a more dovish Fed, which benefited low-yielding currencies like the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. Oil prices consistently moved lower throughout the session on no clear driver with eyes on inventory data after-hours, although amid potential profit taking after four straight days of gains for the crude complex. Gold prices moved higher in response to the Cook news. US data saw Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence beat expectations, but eyes remain on the 2nd estimate of GDP on Thursday and PCE on Friday. Elsewhere, UnitedHealth (UNH) took a hit in late trade on reports from Bloomberg that the ongoing criminal probe is broader than Medicare. Headline Durable Goods fell 2.8% in July, extending the decline from the 9.4% drop in June, but not as much as the expected 4.0% reduction. Ex-transport, however, Durable goods were strong, rising 1.1%, well above the prior 0.3%, the 0.2% consensus and the highest analyst estimate of 0.5%, and showing that the headline drop was primarily due to aircraft orders. Ex-defence fell by 2.5% vs the prior -9.5% but still above the -3.6% consensus. The Nondefense capital good ex aircraft orders rose 1.1%, above all analyst forecasts and the prior being revised up to -0.6% from -0.8%, while nondefense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft rose by 0.7%, accelerating from the prior 0.4%. Oxford Economics highlights that business equipment investment is on track to post another gain in Q3, albeit smaller than in Q2. Richmond Fed in August saw Revenues and Demand rise to 4 (prev. 2) and 13 (prev. 5), respectively, while the outlook indices for the future both rose. Local Business Conditions soared to 6 from -8, and also saw an improvement looking ahead. The current employment index edged lower to -1 from 0, while the forward-looking index increased notably to 20 from 4. The wages index increased to 24, and firms continued to expect to increase in wages over the next six months. On the inflationary footing, prices paid were more or less unchanged while prices received rose. Ahead, the future index for prices paid fell, but for received it increased. US President Trump ordered the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook (voter), alleging false mortgage statements, but Cook rejected his authority to do so and vowed not to resign. Williams (voter) said the US neutral interest rate may remain close to pre-pandemic levels, as structural factors like global demographics and productivity trends that kept rates low have not changed, indicating the low neutral-rate era “appears far from over.” Logan (2026 voter) warned money markets may see temporary pressure around September’s tax date and quarter-end, but said the Fed still has scope to keep reducing its balance sheet. Barkin (2027 voter) said he expects a modest adjustment in interest rates, given he expects little variation in economic activity over the rest of the year, but this could be subject to change. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 2.39% while Gold ended Tuesday’s session with a 0.54% gain.
To mark my 3225th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 2822 points for August after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.41% higher at a price of 6465.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 135 points higher for a 0.3% gain at a price of 45,418.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.43% higher at a price of 23,525.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.80% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.23% higher at a price of 42,493.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.15% lower.
The Euro closed 0.21% higher at $1.1642.
The British Pound closed 0.15% higher at $1.3477.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.33% closing at $147.36
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points higher at 4.74%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 4 basis points lower at 2.72%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.26%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.39% lower at $63.25 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.54% higher at $3384.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German GFK Consumer Confidence which printed -23.6 versus -22.0 expected. Next, we have the U.K. CBI Distributives Survey at 11.00 am and U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. This is followed by a speech from Fed Member Barkin at 4.45 pm. Finally, we have a Five-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Tuesday was a fairly uneventful day in the market, aside from some unusual movement in the final 45 minutes when the market surged into the close. The only thing that truly matters for equities now is Nvidia’s results after the close this evening. Nvidia has a P/E of 58 and a forward P/E of 30. Valuations are not a timing device but to my eye it is also a ticking timebomb in terms of long-term sustainability. You could even make the assumption that a 10% or 20% correction in this market would still be historically expensive. Buyers are either ignoring the expense of what they are buying or they may be entirely oblivious to it for we have now entered a market universe where there are more ETFs than actual stocks. With leveraged ETFs offering 2.3 or even 5X return prospects appealing to investor greed. This is the environment we are in and is why I have no interest in being a buyer without a meaningful correction. Meanwhile, the Fed continues to come under pressure, with President Trump dismissing Governor Cook. What is somewhat surprising is how muted the bond market’s reaction has been to the potential changes at the Fed. There is no doubt that Nvidia matters and the S&P and NDX will be seriously impacted this evening given the sheer relative size of the stock’s Index weight. On the S&P it is 8% and in the NDX a whopping 10% with Microsoft a close second at 9% of the NDX. Tuesday’s late surge saw the S&P hit my 6461-sell level. I am still short with a now higher 6448 T/P level. I will add to this position at 6481 with a now higher 6495 ‘Closing Stop’. Technically, the S&P could rally to the top of its Daily Bollinger Band at 6506 before encountering resistance but as I said earlier, I have no interest in being a buyer at these levels. If any of the above prices are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro hit a high at 1.1666 just missing my 1.1670 initial sell level before selling off to sit at 1.1620 this morning. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 1.1670/1.1750 with the same 1.1825 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1580.
Dollar Index
The Dollar sold off to my 98.10 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 98.50 T/P level. I will add to this position at 97.30 while leaving my 96.55 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
Tuesday’s late rally saw the Russell hit my 2365 sell level. I will now raise my T/P level to 2330 while continuing to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 2425. I will also leave my 2475 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
No Change: Another reason not to be long American Indexes is the overvalued European Markets. I am glad that we took a break from trading the DAX as short positions have been obliterated over the past few months. The 14 Day RSI on the Monthly Chart for the DAX is a whopping and unsustainable 82. Germany has no growth, yet investors are piling into the German Equity Market which absolutely makes no sense to me. Same with the U.K. where inflation printed 3.8% last week yet the FTSE closed the week at all-time highs. The FTSE poked above the Monthly Bollinger Band right into a major trend line that just screams correction in my opinion. This morning, the FTSE is re-opening at 9290 having traded in a narrow range on Tuesday. We have short-term resistance from 9330/9400 where I will be a strong seller with a 9455 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9260.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to yesterday’s sell range. Ahead of Nvidia this evening, I will now raise my Dow sell level to 45700/45950 with a higher 46205 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 45480.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Late last evening the NDX hit my sell range for a now 23540 short position. I am still short with a now higher 23470 T/P level as I want to use any sell-off to be flat ahead of the Nvidia earnings which will be released after the close. I will add to this position at 23700 while leaving my 23805 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market again missed yesterday’s initial 129.10 buy level. Today, I will leave my Bund buy level unchanged at 128.30/129.10 with the same 127.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 129.60. Despite the low yields I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. I will continue to look to buy Gold on any further dip lower to 3275/3295 with a the same 3259 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3318. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip to 37.20/38.00 with the same 36.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 38.80.
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