U.S. Equity Markets ended Tuesday with gains, in what was a choppy day across markets, as sentiment swung between the European and U.S. sessions. In the European morning, there was a notable risk-off trade amid heightened geopolitical tensions as Russia’s Kremlin said “Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in an event of aggression”, as well as Ukraine making its first ATACMS strike inside Russia. Following this, Treasuries, Dollar, and Gold caught a bid with haven FX (JPY, CHF) outperforming, while stocks and oil sold off as did other global FX peers vs. the Dollar. Once extremes were hit, highlighting by USD/JPY hitting a low of 153.29, sentiment reversed through the US session, albeit on no particular headline in pretty light newsflow. Illustrating the volatility of the moves, the Dollar is flat as is the Yen against the Dollar, while high beta FX outperforms, and Treasuries only end the session marginally firmer, while stocks and oil also are green. Elsewhere in the day, the Canadian Dollar saw notable strength after Canadian inflation data came in hotter than expected which saw hawkish Bank of Canada repricing. Out of the US, housing data came in beneath consensus while Fed’s Schmid (2025 voter) said little new. For the record, sectors were mixed with Technology and Communication Services sitting atop of the pile with the former buoyed by strength in Nvidia (NVDA) (+4.9%) ahead of earnings this evening. In terms of stock-specific highlights, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged 31% after the Co. appointed BDO as its new auditor, aiming to resolve filing delays, while Walmart reported beats on key metrics for the quarter, accompanied by strong guidance, leaving WMT 3% higher into the close. Privately-owned US Housing Starts fell by 3.1% in October from prior 1.353 million to 1.311 million, beneath the 1.33 million forecast. Single-family housing starts in October fell 6.9% to 970,000. Meanwhile, multi-family starts were 326k. Privately owned building permits declined by 0.6% from 1.425 million to 1.416 million, beneath the 1.43 million forecast. Single family permits rose 0.5% to 968k, while multi-family permits were 393k. Oxford Economics highlight that starts were a touch weaker due to the impact of Hurricanes but they expect starts in the South to rebound as rebuilding in the areas most impacted by the storm gets underway. Looking ahead, Oxford Economics “expect a gradual improvement in starts throughout the year but see downside risks to our forecast from sticky mortgage rates, as well as labour shortages and higher building costs if we take President-elect Trump’s policies on immigration and tariffs at face value”. Last Thursday’s US PPI data was a touch hotter than expected on the Y/Y prints with upward revisions on the prior report. Headline M/M rose by 0.2%, in line with expectations while the prior was revised up to 0.1% from 0.0%. The Y/Y headline rose by 2.4%, above the 2.3% forecast, with the September data being revised up to 1.9% from 1.8%. The Core numbers rose by 0.3%, in line with forecast but up from the prior 0.2%, while the Y/Y rose by 3.1%, above the 3.0% forecast and up from the prior 2.9%, which was revised up from 2.8%. The super core metrics, ex food, energy and trade, rose 0.3% M/M, up from the 0.1% prior, with the Y/Y rising 3.5%, up from the prior 3.3%, which was revised up from 3.2%. The focus of this report will be how the PPI and CPI translate into the PCE report. UBS acknowledged that some of the PCE components within the PPI report are hot. Pantheon Macroeconomics highlight that PPI portfolio management prices rose by 3.5%, while domestic air transportation prices rose by 8.8%, both larger than anticipated. Therefore, Pantheon Macroeconomics are revising their forecast for the increase in core PCE to 0.30% from 0.26%. Money markets are still pricing in an 80% probability of a 25bps rate cut in December, albeit it is down marginally from the 85% in the prior session. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.49% higher while a weaker Dollar saw Gold rise 1.1%.
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 616 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2066 points for November having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.40% higher at a price of 5916.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 120 points lower for a 0.28% loss at a price of 43,268.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.71% higher at a price of 20,684.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.45% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.51% higher at a price of 38,414.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.08% lower.
The Euro closed 0.21% higher at $1.0592.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2675.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.6% closing at $154.64.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower 2.35%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points lower at 4.44%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points lower at 4.40%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.49% higher at $69.50 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.1% higher at $2632 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. CPI, PPI and the Retail Price Index at 7.00 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone Construction Output at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and a speech from ECB President at 1.00 pm. PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Cook at 4.00 pm, Bowman at 5.15 pm and a 20-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Yesterday the S&P tested the 30 MA at 5842 with a 5832 low print resulting in a 90 Handle rally into the close. All eyes will be on NVIDIA’s earnings after the close this evening. If the earnings come in as or higher than expected, then I would expect the S&P to test the 6000 level again. Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are tripping themselves up by raising their S&P 2025 price targets totally ignoring how expensive this market is. I will continue to be a buyer of dips as so many of my technical signals like the $NYSI are severely oversold which makes no sense with the S&P closing only 100 Handles from its all-time high. My S&P trading has worked well over the past few days. The S&P traded the whole of Thursday’s trading range for a 5885 average long position before rallying to my revised 5896 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members on two more occasions to buy the S&P which we did at an average rate of 5881 before exiting at 5898 and again at 5871 before exiting this position yesterday afternoon at 5885 and I am now flat. The S&P has support below from 5870/5885 where I will again be a buyer with a 5859 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5903. Ahead of NVIDIA this evening, I do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0665. Given how oversold the Euro I will continue to hold this position with no stop for now. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0710. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still short the Dollar at an average rate of 105.85. This morning the Dollar is trading at 106.20 having hit a high at 106.85 since Thursday’s commentary. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 105.50 while leaving my 106.85 ‘’Closing Price’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
I am still flat the DAX, scared to buy and reluctant to chase the market lower. This was the opening to my DAX commentary on Thursday. The DAX keeps breaking lower only to find aggressive buying despite Germany been both a political and economic mess. I still have no edge in this market preferring to concentrate on the other four Indices until a decent low risk opportunity arises. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
My latest 8070 long FTSE position worked well as the market finally rallied to my 8130 T/P level on late Monday night. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the FTSE again which I did yesterday at a price of 8060. I am still long with a 8130 T/P level. The FTSE is severely oversold and due a bounce. At 7.00 am we have the latest U.K. inflation data. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this key number as so much bad news is now priced into the U.K equity market. I am comfortable in holding this long position. I will add to this trade on any further move lower to 8000 while leaving my 7935 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Timing is everything when you are trying to go against the bullish trend. Having exited my 43600 large average short position for a loss last week at 43760, the Dow rallied over 400 points before falling over 1100 points to yesterday’s afternoon’s low print. Subsequently, the Dow rallied 400 points off this low into the close. I have been flat through all this price action waiting to get an edge in the market. It kills me to be a buyer of the Dow given the valuations, but I feel I have no choice. The Dow has support from 42750/43000 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 42595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 43240. I no longer want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat the NDX as the market never came close to Thursday’s sell range. Ahead of NVIDIA this evening and the Thanksgiving Holiday next week I no longer want to be short the NDX. This morning the NDX is trading at 20600. We have support from 20250/20450 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a wider 19995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 20620.
December BUND
My latest 131.70 long Bund position worked well as the market rallied to my 132.25 T/P level and I am now flat. Even though I believe Bund Yields to be ridiculously low I have no interest in shorting the Bund Market. As we have seen over the past few months all dips are bought aggressively. The Bund has support below from 130.90/131.60 where I will again be a buyer with the same tight 130.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 132.10.
Gold Rolling Contract
My latest 2575 average long Gold position worked well as the market rallied over $40 on Monday. This move higher saw my revised 2584 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. As I have large, long position in Silver my only interest in buying Gold is on a further dip lower to 2564/2580 with a lower 2549 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2593.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still long Silver at an average rate of 32.30 from early last week with the same 29.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now leave my T/P level unchanged at 32.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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