U.S. Indices saw choppiness and ultimately ended firmer with gains seen in the both the S&P and NASDAQ 100, as risk sentiment was boosted after CNBC’s Megan Casella said there are three main options that US President Trump is looking at, with blanket 20% tariffs less likely than tiered system of three different rates and also country-by-country rates. On top of this, both the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso firmed against the Dollar as she added that Canada/Mexico fentanyl tariffs are expected to be lifted. Prior to this, risk sentiment was lacklustre, and US indices were seeing losses with Treasuries gaining after Washington Post sources said the White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on at least most imports to the US, and the move was further accentuated after dismal US data. ISM Manufacturing PMI fell deeper than expected into contractionary territory, with weak sub-indices and prices paid soaring, while JOLTS (at the same time) printed short of the Wall St. consensus. In wake of the data (incl. Construction spending) Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 model was revised down to -3.7% (prev. -2.8% on March 28th), with the Gold adjusted -1.4% (prev. -0.5%). Sectors were predominantly firmer, mega-caps (Cons. Disc., Comms. Tech) lead the way, and Health lagged as it was weighed on by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) (-7.6%) as a US judge rejected Cos. USD 10billion bankruptcy proposal to settle lawsuits. Overall, Treasuries bull flattened with T-Notes off post-data peaks given positive tariff developments, which also saw the Dollar generally softer against peers in addition to the soft US data. Ahead, it goes without saying the highlight is ‘Liberation Day’ with President Trump set to speak at the Rose Garden event at 16:00EDT/21:00BST. ISM Manufacturing PMI for March was a grim report, with the headline falling to 49.0 from 50.2 and beneath the expected 49.5. The inflationary gauge of prices paid jumped to 69.4 (prev. 62.4, exp. 65.0) and outside the top end of the forecast range. On this, Capital Economics notes it is still way below its pandemic, even after rising again in March, it seems likely to increase further next month once more tariffs come into effect. However, new orders and employment dipped to 45.2 (prev. 48.6) and 44.7 (prev. 47.6), respectively, while production dropped back beneath 50 to 48.3 from 50.7. Backlog of orders, new export orders, and imports all fell as well. Inventories jumped 3.5 points and limited the damage to the headline figure and likely reflects some stock building ahead of the tariff announcement on April 2nd. Once again, respondent comments were largely dominated by tariff concerns and just picking out a few: 1) “Customers are pulling in orders due to anxiety about continued tariffs and pricing pressures”; 2) “Business condition is deteriorating at a fast pace. Tariffs and economic uncertainty are making the current business environment challenging”; 3) “Newly implemented tariffs are significantly impacting gross profits”. Overall, CapEco said the slight dip in the headline suggests that, rather than triggering a reshoring factory renaissance, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff threats are depressing activity. The February JOLTS data saw Job Openings fall to 7.568 million from 7.762 million, beneath the 7.616 million forecast, while the vacancy rate slipped to 4.5% from 4.7%, with the ‘quits’ rate unchanged at 2.0%. Note, in July 2024, Fed’s Waller cited his own research with Fed economist Andrew Figura from 2022 on the Beveridge curve. He said that they projected that if layoffs were steady, the unemployment rate would rise to around 4.5% if the job vacancy rate dropped back to its pre-pandemic level of 4.6%. Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics write that elevated economic policy uncertainty began to weigh on labour demand in February, but warns a bigger decline likely lies ahead due to the increased uncertainty over the past month. Elsewhere both Gold and Oil closed lower by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively.
To mark my 3150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 385 points yesterday on the first trading session of April after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.38% higher at a price of 5633.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points lower for a 0.03% loss at a price of 41,989.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.82% higher at a price of 19,436.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.07% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.02% higher at a price of 35,624.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.06% higher.
The Euro closed 0.25% lower at $1.0786.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2918.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.27% closing at $149.70.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points lower at 2.68%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower at 4.65%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 9 basis points lower at 4.17%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.41% lower at $71.19 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.14% lower at $3116.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have a 10-Year German Bund Auction at 10.30 am. This is followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and the ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm. Next, we have Durable Goods Orders and Factory Orders at 3.00 pm. Finally, as it is ‘Liberation Day for the Trump Tariffs’ we can expect plenty of new out on this topic throughout the afternoon/evening.
Cash S&P 500
Thankfully the S&P saw follow through yesterday to Monday’s reversal off positive divergences. Sizeable rallies or outright lows can come from positive divergences which we saw with a lot of individual stocks in the MAG7 complex. Both Apple and Bitcoin did not make new lows on Monday which is a positive in my book and with sentiment and positioning so one-sided the market is ripe for a massive move higher. The only obstacle left is Liberation Day today. On Monday a number of key MA’s were tagged and held which is another positive and why I am keen to hold onto my S&P position with no T/P level near current pricing for now. However, given how far offside I was on this latest 5643 average long position, I will put in a T/P level at 5702 in the hope that if it is filled we will get a subsequent retracement to re-position. If my T/P level is triggered, I will then be a buyer of the S&P on any retracement to 5625/5645 with no stop or T/P level. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro continues to trade in narrow ranges ahead of this afternoon’s key Tariff announcements. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 1.0690/1.0760 with the same 1.0615 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0820. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
No Change: I am still flat. The Dollar has resistance above from 104.60/105.30 where I will be a small seller with a 106.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 104.20. I no longer want to be long the Dollar at this time.
Russell 2000
I am still long the Russell at an average rate of 2035 with the same 2070 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will leave my 1945 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
My 8560 average long FTSE position worked well as the market rallied to my 8635 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE has support below from 8500/8570 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 8435 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8630. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market sold off to my 41530-buy level before rallying to my 41840 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has support below from 41400/41650 where I will again be a buyer with a higher 41195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 41940.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still long the NDX from Friday at an average rate of 19620 with the same no stop. Ahead of this afternoon’s key Tariff announcement and to reduce risk further, I will now lower my T/P level slightly to 19670. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat. The Bund never came close to Tuesday’s buy range. However, I will not chase the market higher as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 127.80/128.60 with the same 127.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 129.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am going to stay flat Gold for now. The market is severely overbought but I prefer to be a buyer of dips that sell the rally. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver from Monday at 33.60 with a now lower 34.20 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 32.80 while leaving my 31.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
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