U.S. Indices closed mixed and within contained ranges, amid limited trade updates on Tuesday, albeit still a couple of worthy updates. Recapping, the US implemented a review on pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports ahead of Trump’s planned tariff announcements on the separate sectors, while reports suggested China has ordered a halt to Boeing jet deliveries. Canada provided a temporary six-month relief from counter-tariffs for goods imported from the US that are used in manufacturing, processing and food and beverage packaging, and the US announced most tomatoes imported from Mexico to face a 21% duty from July 14th. However, the EU reportedly expects US tariffs to remain as talks make little progress. There was no Fed speak ahead of Chair Powell on Wednesday, while US data was mixed. New York Fed Manufacturing headline was better than expected as were some of the internals, although prices paid rose back into expansionary territory and the 6-month economic outlook deteriorated. Import prices marginally unexpectedly declined, while exports were as expected, flat. Sectors see a downward bias, with Consumer Discretionary the laggard and Real Estate/Financials sitting atop the pile, with the latter buoyed by continued strong bank earnings (BAC & C). The Dollar Index snapped a 3-day losing streak, as Antipodeans outperformed, while both the Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc lagged, with the former weighed on by a cooler-than-expected inflation report ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision this afternoon. T-Note bid continues in wake of Treasury Official commentary on buybacks and SLR talks. The crude complex saw slight losses, albeit in choppy trade, as the focus centred around further trade retaliation from China, IEA OMR, and geopolitical updates. Ahead, participants await US retail sales, Fed Chair Powell speaking, and earnings on Wednesday, in addition to any further trade rhetoric. The U.S. implemented a review of pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports ahead of Trump’s planned tariff announcements on the separate sectors. Meanwhile, reports suggested China has ordered a halt to Boeing (BA) jet deliveries as the trade war expands. In later trade, the White House press secretary stated the ball is in China’s court, they don’t have to make a deal with them, and US President Trump is open to deal with China. Canada has provided a temporary six-month relief from counter-tariffs for goods imported from the US that are used in manufacturing, processing and food and beverage packaging. The US announced most tomatoes imported from Mexico to face a 21% duty from July 14th. India said it has signed terms of reference for a trade deal with the US. The EU, however, reportedly expects US tariffs to remain as talks make little progress, according to Bloomberg, with US officials indicating that most US tariffs on the EU will not be removed. Separately, White House press secretary Leavitt said over 15 trade deal proposals are actively being considered and they believe they can announce some very soon. New York Fed Manufacturing for April was better than feared, albeit still negative, as the headline rose to -8.1 from -20.0, against the expected -14.5. Within the release, new orders and employment improved to -8.8 (prev. -14.9) and -2.6 (prev. -4.1), respectively, while prices paid lifted back into expansionary territory at 50.8 from 44.9. Shipments rose, while inventories fell. Looking ahead, six-month business conditions index plunged to -7.4 from +12.7, which continues to highlight the obvious uncertainty consumer have regarding tariffs. Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the NY Fed, said “After declining sharply last month, business activity continued to contract modestly in New York State in April. Input and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years. Firms turned pessimistic about the outlook for the first time since 2022.” Note, survey responses were collected between April 2nd-9th. U.S. Import Prices fell by 0.1% in March (prev. 0.4%, rev. 0.2%), slightly shy of the unchanged print analysts had forecasted. The move was led by a 2.3% decrease in import fuel prices (prev. 1.6%), its largest monthly drop since September 2024, as lower prices for petroleum and natural gas weighed. Export prices were unchanged M/M as expected (prev. 0.1%, rev. 0.5%). Lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials and nonagricultural foods more than offset higher prices for capital goods, consumer goods, and automotive vehicles. Agricultural export prices were unchanged (prev. 0.6%); higher prices for soybeans offset lower prices for wheat and rice. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while Gold was firmer ending Tuesday with a 0.58% gain.
To mark my 3175th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 110 points yesterday and is now ahead by 6455 points for April after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.17% lower at a price of 5396.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 155 points lower for a 0.38% loss at a price of 40,368.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.18% higher at a price of 18,830.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.63% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.7% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.84% higher at a price of 34,267.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.52% higher.
The Euro closed 0.51% lower at $1.1288.
The British Pound closed 0.32% higher at 1.3232.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.03% closing at $143.14.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower at 2.53%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 4.66%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points lower at 4.33%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.08% lower at $61.48 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.58% higher at $3229.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK CPI, PPI and RPI at 7.00 am, followed by Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and Retail Sales at 1.30 pm. This is followed by Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production at 2.15 pm. At 2.45 pm we have the Bank of Canada Rate Announcement followed by U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index and Business Inventories at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Chair Powell at 6.15 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Tuesday was a boring day with little or no price movement compared to the last two weeks. At least on Monday, the price moved some, but yesterday was just a non-event. There was sideways trading ahead of this afternoon’s March Retail Sales Report. I am not sure how much that is playing into yesterday’s price action, but it was boring. When you go from big, impulsive moves to these sideways, blah periods of time, it is a warning message to me that we are just consolidating sideways here, that this is not the start of some big initiation higher. I am still flat the S&P. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 5490/5530 with the same 5551 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term support from 5280/5320. I will continue to be a strong buyer on any dip to this area with the same 5265 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 5455. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5363.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still flat the Euro as the market tries to consolidate last week’s gains. Given how overbought the Euro is trading and oversold the Dollar is at this time I will not chase the price of the Euro higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 1.1110/1.1200 which was the high from last September with the same 1.1045 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1280.
Dollar Index
The Dollar rallied to my 99.90 T/P level on Monday’s 99.40 long position and I am now flat. As long as the Dollar can hold the 98.80/99.50 support area, I will continue to be a buyer of dips. Today, I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a higher 97.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 100.20. Given how oversold the Dollar is trading, I have no interest in shorting the market at this time.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1780/1850 with the same 1715 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1910.
FTSE 100
The FTSE rallied to my sell range for a now 8225 short position. I will add to this position on any further move higher to 8305 while leaving my 8375 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 8160. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. With 30-Year Bonds at 5% I am not sure that this crisis is anyway close to been over. We are probably in the early stages of a massive financial reordering that will end the U.S. Dollar status as the world’s only reserve currency. We are entering a period of monetary plurality that will see the Dollar, Euro, Gold, the Chinese Yuan and Bitcoin compete as the monetary reserve currency. This transition will be extremely painful for America, which for the last 50+years has enjoyed the ‘’exorbitant’’ privilege of being able to print the reserve currency. President Trump’s trade war means this global order can no longer be financed only with the currency that America prints. Federal spending for the first half of 2025 totals $3,56 trillion, a 10% increase over the $3.25 trillion spent in the same period last year. The result is the U.S. Bond Market selling off at a scale that I have never seen before. Normally, when global market volatility strikes, investors rush into U.S. Treasury Bonds. Now, investors (most likely foreign central banks) are dumping bonds, producing declines that are virtually unprecedented. To say that America Inc is now trading as a third world country is not far from the truth something that no one of us would ever believe we would see in our lifetimes. This move higher in yields is causing a huge threat to financial institutions like Bank of America who has invested over $600 billion into long-duration, low yield mortgages (45%) and Treasury Bonds (52%) at the top of the bond market ana re sitting on massive capital losses given the average yield on these investments is just 2%. The last 50 years has seen the creation of an immense financial bubble in financial bonds. That bubble is now being popped and there is going to be a lot of fireworks going forward. This will now be good for global equity markets. I am still flat the Dow. The Dow has short-term resistance from 41100/41400 where I will be a small seller with a tight 41605 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 40750.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat. This morning the NDX is trading higher at 18790. We have strong resistance from 19600/19900 where I will continue to be a seller with the same 20105 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a strong buyer on any dip lower to 18100/18300 with the same 17995 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 19350. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 18530.
December BUND
My 131.80 short Bund position worked well as the market sold off to my 131.20 T/P level and I am now flat. With Bund Yields close to 2.5% it is extremely difficult in buying Bunds at such a low yield. The Bund has further resistance from 132.20/133.10 with a higher 133.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 131.60.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: After the US raised tariffs on China to 145% last week, China announced they would be raising tariffs to 125% on Friday. Meanwhile, PPI and CPI inflation both came in far weaker than expected for March which further supported gold prices. The story was largely about the US Dollar Index (DXY) which collapsed to a new 52-week low of 99.01 on April 11th. The sudden move lower sent gold above $3200 and accelerated capital rotation into safe haven assets. Furthermore, as the basis trade was unwound in bond markets and yields surged rapidly, more capital rotated out of bonds and into gold, a “golden” scenario’’. Given how oversold the Dollar is I would expect Gold to fall once the Dollar starts to recoup some of last week’s large losses. I will use a sell-off in Gold to buy the market. For now, I will stay flat until we get a badly needed retracement.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver has traded in a narrow range over the past week and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 30.50/31.30 with a higher 28.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 31.95.
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