U.S. Indexes saw a gyration on Tuesday, as they were initially weighed on by continued heightened US/China tensions and mixed US bank earnings. Afterwards, Indices reversed through the majority of the US session, before once again falling near the close as Trump once again upped his rhetoric on China. Early Tuesday morning, MOFCOM said it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms and said the US cannot have talks while threatening new restrictions. Meanwhile, USTR’s Greer later stated they have had constructive talks with China over the past six months, but China’s rare earth measures are disproportionate, and 100% US tariffs on China could come sooner than November 1st. Trump concluded the day’s updates on China, threatening to terminate business with China on cooking oil. Sectors ended mixed, as Tech and Consumer Discretionary lagged, while Consumer Staples and Industrials outperformed. On earnings (more details below), JPM and GS were the laggards, while WFC and BLK strengthened as attention turns to MS and BAC on Wednesday. The Dollar was lower and weighed on by the aforementioned US/China news, which saw the Australian Dollar as the distinct G10 underperformer and once again fell foul towards the broader risk sentiment, while the Japanese Yen outperformed. The crude complex was weighed amid heightened US/China trade tensions and an oversupply of global oil as the IEA said the world oil market faces a surplus of almost 4mln BPD next year. Spot Gold was firmer but did not get near the highs seen in the APAC session. Treasuries saw gains across the curve, and most notable in the short-end, while Powell touted an end of balance sheet drawdown. Ahead of the Fed blackout at midnight on Friday, Fed Chair Powell said little new about the economy or on the interest rate path, but mentioned the Fed may be approaching the end of the balance sheet contraction in the coming months, and officials will be discussing the composition. In the text release, there was little new information about the economy or on the interest rate path. It appears amid the government shutdown, he is relying on data already available but added that there are other data sources used other than by the government. He does not appear to be focusing on one side of the mandate over the other, noting how downside risks to the labour market have risen, but available data shows tariffs are pushing up price pressures. Note, US CPI will be released on October 24th, the Friday before the next Fed meeting. Powell mentioned the Fed may be approaching the end of the balance sheet contraction in the coming months, and officials will be discussing the composition. The Fed have said before they want to get to a Treasury-only balance sheet – which Powell reiterated here. Reminder, in March, the Fed announced it will slow the pace of its balance sheet run off – reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasuries to USD 5 billion from USD 25 billion, but maintained the MBS redemption cap at USD 35 billion to support a move to a Treasury-only balance sheet. Powell stated here that the Fed’s long-standing plan is to stop the balance sheet run off when reserves are somewhat above the level they judge to be consistent with an ample amount of reserves. Powell said now they may approach that point in the coming months. In the accompanying Q&A, he added data since the July meeting shows the labour market has softened considerably, and noted they will get access to the CPI and PPI report [before the next FOMC meeting]. On this, the Chair noted the Fed will start to miss data, which will become more challenging if the shutdown lingers and October is delayed. There is plausible data for the state of the job market, though private data is best as a supplement, and added substitutes are better for the job market than they are for inflation. Speaking on the balance sheet, Powell said not so far but a way to go. Fed Member Bowman maintained her view of two more 25 basis points rate cuts before the year end, putting her in line with the Fed September SEP median view and alongside 8/19 members who share the same view. Collins – The Boston Fed President said even with some additional easing, monetary policy would remain mildly restrictive, which is appropriate to ensure inflation resumes its decline once tariff effects fade. However, Collins acknowledged that policy is not a preset path; ahead, decisions will depend on data and their implication for the outlook. Given inflation risks are somewhat more contained, but with greater downside risks to employment, Collins argues that it is prudent to normalise policy a bit further this year to support the labour market. Collins expects more growth, a small climb in unemployment, and inflation to remain elevated in the near term, largely due to tariffs. Albeit, Collins’ baseline is for inflation to remain elevated into next year as tariffs get passed through, before resuming its decline. Goldman Sachs (GS): Expenses rose more than expected; note, EPS, revenue, & FICC topped with provision for credit losses better than anticipated. JPMorgan (JPM): EPS, revenue, FICC & equities revenue beat; Credit loss provision. above expected, with NII light; Solid FY NII guidance. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1.5% while Gold ended Tuesday’s session with a further 0.75% gain.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 1290 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3315 points for October after closing September with a gain of 3774 points after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.16% lower at a price of 6644.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 202 points higher for a 0.44% gain at a price of 46,270.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.69% lower at a price of 24,579.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.37% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.2% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.58% lower at a price of 46,847.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.19% lower.
The Euro closed 0.28% higher at $1.1601.
The British Pound closed 0.14% lower at $1.3318.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.31% closing at $151.80
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.65%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 4 basis points lower at 2.59%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 4.03%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.56% lower at $58.62 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.78% higher at $4142.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Wholesale Price Index at 7.00 am, followed by Euro-Zone Industrial Production at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Bostic at 5.10 pm, Waller at 6.00 pm and Schmid at 7.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Incredible two-way volatility on Tuesday for a session that worked really well for my Platinum Members. The S&P hit my 6678-sell level before trading lower to my 6642 T/P level. Subsequently, the S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a 6584-buy level before rallying to my revised 6596 T/P level. I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the S&P again which I did at a price of 6566 before the market hit my 6605 T/P level and I am now flat. It is hard to believe that a small sell-off in the S&P sees the $NYSI stochastic maximum oversold. I have never seen anything like this before as this stochastic is now the most oversold in 2025. Now while we can stay max oversold for a few weeks like we did in 2022 so it is not prohibitive of new lows coming still, but it also informs of firepower for a rally to keep building. This was one of the main reasons why I mostly had only buy signals in Tuesday’s Daily Commentary. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip to 6590/6610 with a 6575 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term resistance from 6700/6720 where I will be a small seller with a 6736 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6635. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6676. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro never came close to yesterday’s sell range. Today I will raise my sell level to 1.1670/1.1730 with a higher 1.1795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1610. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will leave my buy level unchanged at 98.00/98.80 with the same 97.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.45.
Russell 2000
The Russell finally rallied to my 2515 sell level for a now 2480 average short position. I will leave my 2575 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 2440. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
FTSE 100
I am still flat as despite Tuesday’s strong rebound off morning lows my sell level was not triggered. I will leave my sell level unchanged at 9510/9580 with the same 96.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9450.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market hit my buy range for a 45600-buy level before rallying to my revised 45940 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow hit an afternoon high at 46500 before having a small sell-off into the close. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 45750/46000 with a higher 45555 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46280. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX traded the whole of my buy range for a 24470 average long position before rallying to my 24550 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 24320/24470 with a lower 24195 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24620.
December BUND
I will not chase the market higher preferring to leave my 128.90/129.60 buy level unchanged with the same 128.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 130.30.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still short at an average price of 4059 with no stop. I will now raise my exit level to a small loss at 4075 and reassess if triggered. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. There is no doubt that we are living through times of extremes on every front, known as the great debasement trade as shown by the vertical move higher in Gold where the Monthly RSI is at 91. There is no history that this move is sustainable and will crash the only question is the when and from where.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 46.80/47.80 with a higher 45.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 49.30.
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