US Indices were lower on Tuesday, with the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.8%) lagging and giving back some of its recent strength post-US election. However, the same cannot be said for the FX space, as the Dollar Index soared to its highest level since May to the detriment of almost all global peers. In G10 FX, Sterling lagged as it was hit after UK jobs metrics whereby the Unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.0%. Moreover, the crude complex was choppy, albeit settling marginally higher as the initial heightened Middle East rhetoric was later offset by the broad Dollar bid. On the former, Israel’s Defence Minister Katz pushed back some of the more positive commentary regarding Israel and Hezbollah noting that there will be no ceasefire in Lebanon and will continue to hit Hezbollah with full force. In a further continuation of Trump trade, Treasuries were sold ahead of CPI on Wednesday. Back to stocks, sectors closed largely in the red with only Communications, Technology, and Consumer Staples in firmer territory, with Materials and Health lagging. The latter was weighed on by Amgen (-7%) with downside in the name attributed to chatter surrounding Phase 1 AMGN GLP-1 trial results. Elsewhere on the day, the New York Fed SCE was mixed with the 1yr and 5yr ahead inflation expectations easing, but the 3yr ahead forecasts rose to 2.5% from 2.3%. On the Fed footing, Kashkari (2026 voter) noted if inflation surprises to the upside between now and December, that might give us pause while Barkin spoke on risks of inflation getting stuck above target. The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations saw the 1yr ahead expectations ease to 2.9% from 3.0% in September, while the 5yr ahead expectations eased to 2.8% from 2.9%. However, the 3yr ahead forecasts rose to 2.5% from 2.3%. Note, the survey was conducted throughout the month of October, so it is unlikely to incorporate the latest US election. Elsewhere in the report, commentary was quite positive. Consumers saw a lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment for the first time in five months, as well as the lowest likelihood of a climb in the US unemployment rate over next year since February 2022. They also sees a lower chance of losing their current job and improved prospects for finding a new job if the current one was lost. On housing, median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in Oct. Next month’s data will be a more accurate read of the current consumer as it will incorporate expectations in response to Trump’s victory and what is looking increasingly like a Red Sweep (Decision Desk have called a Republican win in the House).
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 230 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1519 points for November having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.29% lower at a price of 5983.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 382 points lower for a 0.86% loss at a price of 43,910.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.17% lower at a price of 21,070.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.98% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.40% lower at a price of 39,376.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.45% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.0610.
The British Pound closed 1% lower at 1.2738.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.62% closing at $154.67.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher 2.37%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points higher at 4.51%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 13 basis points higher at 4.44%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.26% higher at $68.22 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.77% lower at $2600 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. CPI. Meanwhile, Fed speakers Williams, Logan, Schmid and Musalem are speaking at 2.30 pm, 6.30 pm, 7.00 pm and 7.10 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Frustratingly the S&P just missed yesterday’s sell range before hitting a low at 5960 before subsequently having a 40-Handle rally of this low into the close. The 5 EMA comes in at a price of 5957 explaining why the S&P rallied from its afternoon low. I am expecting a test of at least the 14 EMA over the coming days (5885) for a meaningful long position ahead of the Thanksgiving seasonally strong period of the year. I have never seen a situation where the $NYSI is still maximum oversold yet markets are at or near all-time highs. This is why the U.S. Indexes are so tricky to analyse at this time. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 6016/6036 with the same 6051 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 5875/5890 with a higher 5859 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
Although the Euro made a new six-month low at 1.0594, we had a small rally into the close which is no surprise given how oversold the market is at this time. I am still long from Monday at an average rate of 1.0665 with the same 1.0725 T/P level. I will leave my 1.0575 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar tagged on a further 0.5% yesterday as the buy everything American shows no sign of stopping anytime soon. I am still short the Dollar on Monday with the same 105.05 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 106.20. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
Finally, a decent down day for the DAX yesterday with the market trading 300 points lower from where I marked prices early yesterday morning. The DAX has short-term resistance from 19380/19480. I will now lower my sell to level to this area with a lower 19605 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 19310.
Cash FTSE
Monday’s late rally did not last long as sellers returned with venom yesterday. This move lower saw the FTSE hit my buy range for a now 8070 long position. I will now look to add to this trade at 7990 with a now lower 7935 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 8130. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Thankfully the Dow closed over 300 points lower in New York last night. I still have a large short position at an average rate of 43600. Given the number of points that I have managed to pick up since Friday I will now lower my exit level on this position to a loss at 43760. If this level is triggered, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Thankfully we held on to Friday’s latest 21000 short position as the market sold off to my tight 20970 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the NDX again at a price of 21100 which was filled just before the Chicago close. As I go to press the NDX is trading at a price of 21040. As I want to continue to bank points when available I have now exited this position here, and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 21150/21300 with the same 21405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 20970.
December BUND
Just before the New York close the Bund finally followed U.S. Treasuries lower. This latest sell-off saw my 131.70 initial buy level triggered. I am still long with the same 132.25 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 131.00 while leaving my 130.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 2597 average long position before rallying to my revised 2617 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. This morning Gold is trading lower at 2600. We have further support from 2570/2585 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 2558 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at an average rate of 32.30 with the same 29.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 32.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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