U.S. Indices reversed initial losses seen in what was a day of two halves. At the cash open, and US equity futures prior to it, weakness was seen, which was led by CoreWeave cutting revenue guidance, and Softbank selling its whole stake in NVIDIA. While both those names still notched notable losses, with the former down in excess of 11%, and Technology the only sector in the red, broader indices pared losses. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 settled with gains, while Nasdaq 100 had marginal losses as risk sentiment turned around after European players left for the day, albeit on no specific newsflow. Prior to this, T-Notes saw gains, while the Dollar was sold after a dismal weekly ADP employment change metric – the four weeks, ending 25th October 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labour market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month. In FX, the Dollar was sold, while the Pound pared its initial weakness seen on a terrible UK labour figure, which showed employment surprisingly contracting in October and unemployment moving higher. The Swiss Franc was the clear outperformer and supported by positive US/Switzerland trade talks, as reports continue to suggest the US will lower the tariff rate to 15%. The crude complex was firmer and buoyed by the turnaround in risk sentiment alongside continued Russian refinery attacks. As mentioned above, T-Note futures were bid after soft preliminary weekly ADP figures but note cash bonds were closed due to Veterans Day. The preliminary weekly ADP report for the four weeks ending 25th October saw private employers cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week. This suggests the labour market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of October. Amid the current lack of government data, the ADP reports are highly watched to gauge the health of the labour market. This report has bolstered labour market concerns and saw traders boost Fed rate cut bets, despite Fed Chair Powell’s pushback against a December cut being a foregone conclusion at the October FOMC meeting. Markets are currently pricing in 17bps of easing, implying a 68% probability of a 25bps rate cut. With prospects improving of the government reopening, we may be in a position where the September and October NFP reports, as well as the October inflation reports, will be seen before the Fed meeting on December 10th. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1.35% and Gold by 0.27%.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 80 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2767 points for November, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.21% higher at a price of 6846.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 559 points higher for a 1.18% gain at a price of 47,927.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.31% lower at a price of 25,533.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.28% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.14% lower at a price of 50,842.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.13% lower.
The Euro closed 0.23% higher at $1.1583.
The British Pound closed 0.11% lower at $1.3158.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.08% closing at $154.12
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 8 basis points lower at 4.39%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.65%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.12%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.35% higher at $60.96 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.27% higher at $4127.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German CPI at 7.00 am. Next, we have speeches from ECB Members Schnabel and De Guindos at 1.45 am and 11.40 am respectively followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Williams at 2.20 pm and Waller at 3.20 pm
Cash S&P 500
We are now in the final six weeks of trading for 2025 and for all practical purposes the obvious question is whether any macro/valuation concerns will still matter this year or whether markets just continue to rally into year-end. Some of the mechanics keep staring us in the face as the corporate flood will be hitting to the tune of $8 billion in share buybacks per trading day now while this window will remain open until the end of the year. This is the largest buyback in history, coming against a backdrop of valuations remaining incredibly stretched to say the least. With a number of technical signals still oversold it is going to be difficult to see a meaningful sell-off. There is every chance that last Friday’s 6632 low will be the low for the rest of the year. Yes, we can get surprises especially as the structural concerns are glaring, the question is whether they matter this year or not. I am still flat the S&P as the market traded in a narrow range. Friday’s 6729/6770 Open Gap remains. Any attempt to close this large gap will attract strong buying initially. Today, I will move my buy level higher to 6755/6775 with a higher 6739 ‘Closing Stop’. My only interest in selling the S&P is on a further rally to 6885/6905 with a higher 6923 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6801. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6863. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded in a narrow range on Monday, and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1400/1.1480 with the same 1.1335 ‘Closing Stop’. The Euro has short-term resistance from 1.1650/1.1730 where I will be a small seller with a 1.1805 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1540. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1590.
Dollar Index
No Change: Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 98.40/99.10 with the same 97.85 ‘Closing Stop. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.70. I no longer want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Russell 2000
The Russell never came close to Tuesday’s buy range, and I am still flat. I will not chase the Russell higher, as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 2360/2420 with the same 2315 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2465.
FTSE 100
The FTSE continued to build value on Monday’s move to new all-time highs. Just before the New York close the FTSE hit my 9910 sell level. I am still short with a now higher 9850 T/P level. I will add to this position at 9980 while leaving my 10045 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I did not expect the Dow to rally by 500 points yesterday. This move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a now 47750 average short position. I will leave 48205 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 47630. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
In contrast to the Dow, the NDX was weak on Monday. This move lower saw the NDX hit my 25400 revised T/P level (25376 low) on Monday’s 25480 average short position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to go short the NDX again which I did late in the session at a price of 25580. I will add to this position at 25780. My ‘Closing Stop’ will be at 25905 while I will have a T/P level at 25450. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
No Change: I am still long at a price of 130.00 as the boring sideways price action in the Bund shows no sign of ending anytime soon. I will continue to look to add to this position at 129.00 with the same 128.35 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will leave my 130.20 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Gold traded in a narrow range on Tuesday, following Monday’s 2.7% surge. Gold has support from 4020/4040. I will leave my buy level unchanged in this range with the same 3985 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4073. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 48.60/49.60 with the same 47.45 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 50.80.
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