U.S. Indices closed the first trading session of the week in the green amid risk-on sentiment as the US Senate took the first steps over the weekend to end the US government shutdown, alongside continued positive US/China trade developments. Sectors are predominantly firmer with mega-cap sectors Technology, Communications, and Discretionary outperforming with all Mag-7 names in positive territory. Consumer Staples was one of few sectors in red and saw a lack of demand due to risk-off characteristics. The Dollar was weaker with high-beta FX profiting due to the risk-on environment, with both the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen the laggards, with the latter clearly underperforming on known themes. The Australian Dollar was also supported by constructive Chinese inflation figures. Newsflow on Monday was very quiet, so far, with no US data. Fed speak came via Musalem, Miran, and Daly, with the former toeing his usual hawkish tones, Miran, as expected, being the known dove, and the San Francisco President noted policymakers need to keep open mind on further rate cuts. WTI and Brent were choppy in thin energy-specific newsflow, but ultimately settled in the green, while spot Gold lifted back above USD 4,100/oz. Treasuries are weaker across the curve with the greatest losses seen in the short-end. Mild strength was seen following the solid US 3-year Treasury auction. In later trade, US President Trump on Truth regarding tariff pay backs, and noted the “Pay Back” Number on tariffs… would be much higher than those being stated by “our Fake Opposition”… and would be in excess of $2 Trillion Dollars”. Note, Tuesday is Veterans Day where cash bonds are closed. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed higher by 0.5% and 2.75% respectively.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 180 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2687 points for November, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.54% higher at a price of 6832.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 381 points higher for a 0.81% gain at a price of 47,368.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.20% higher at a price of 25,611.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.42% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.26% higher at a price of 50,911.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.03% lower.
The Euro closed 0.06% lower at $1.1560.
The British Pound closed 0.13% higher at $1.3181.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.35% closing at $153.98
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.47%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.67%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.11%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.57% higher at $60.09 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.76% higher at $4111.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Unemployment and Average Earnings at 7.00 am. Next, we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 8.20 am followed by the ZEW Surveys for both Germany and the Euro-Zone at 10.00 am. The only other data of note is the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey at 11.00 am.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 closed 1.5% higher on Monday as implied volatility levels fell sharply. The VIX 1-Day dropped from 16.9 to open around 9—a big decline—before closing at 11.2. The volatility reset now appears complete. This suggests the rally is likely to stall on Tuesday, following the typical pattern seen after strong Monday gains, when implied volatility is elevated on the preceding Friday. Also, with the announcement that the government shutdown is likely ending, the VIX index fell sharply closing lower by over 7%. As usual, when implied volatility declined, the stock market rallied—and once the VIX stabilised, the rally stalled. This has become a recurring pattern in recent months, underscoring how much of the market’s day-to-day movement is being driven by options positioning and flows rather than fundamental and technical factors. It is hard not to be cynical about the market action currently. There is no doubt that given the scale of the late rally on Friday, followed by the massive gap higher on Monday that someone close to the administration new about the weekend news. Monday’s low of 6770 left a 41 Handle gap from Friday’s 6729 Chicago close. This 210 Handle rally off Friday’s 7.00 pm 6632 low print is just insane with no two-way price action as yet again anyone attempting a short position and hold over the weekend is just slammed. Overall, I doubt this rally amounts to much, but it is hard to say in a market where one stock can drive half the day’s gains and add nearly $300 billion to its market cap, as Nvidia did yesterday, for no apparent reason. Meanwhile, its 1-week implied volatility rose to 53.9% from 44.5% and is probably on its way to 100%. Unfortunately, Nvidia has left one more volatility dispersion trade on the table that is yet to be completed. After the S&P traded the whole of my sell range for a 6784 average short position I was lucky that the S&P fell to a 6770 low print which enabled me to cover this position at my revised 6774 T/P level and I am now flat. As I go to post the S&P is trading at 6842. We have short-term resistance from 6865/6885 where I will again be a seller with a 6901 ‘Closing Stop’. My only interest in buying the S&P is from 6720/6740 with a 6699 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6841. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6753.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded in a narrow range on Monday, and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1400/1.1480 with the same 1.1335 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1540. I still no longer want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
No Change: Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 98.50/99.20 with the same 97.85 ‘Closing Stop. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.80. I no longer want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Russell 2000
The Russell never came close to Monday’s buy range, closing 1.4% higher at a price of 2470. Today, I will raise my buy level to 2360/2420 with a higher 2315 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2465.
FTSE 100
The FTSE surged yesterday, closing at a new all-time high. This move higher saw the market hit my 9760 T/P level on Friday’s 9680 long position and I am now flat. The FTSE has resistance from 9900/9980 where I will be a small seller with a 10045 ‘Closing Stop’. If I a taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9845. I no longer want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow as the market never came close to Monday’s aggressive sell range. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 47600/47850 with the same 48205 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 47350.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Wow! The NDX has now rallied over 1000 points off last Friday’s 24605 low print as yet again anyone holding a short position over the weekend is slaughtered. No two-way price action as all last week’s worries over AI valuations are put to bed. Monday’s aggressive rally saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a now 25480 average short position. I will leave my 25705 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 25390. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
No Change: I am still long at a price of 130.00 as the boring sideways price action in the Bund shows no sign of ending anytime soon. I will continue to look to add to this position at 129.00 with the same 128.35 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will leave my 130.20 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Thankfully we had no sell level in Gold yesterday as the market continues to build momentum of the recent 3900 correct low. Gold has support from 4020/4040. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 3985 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4073. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Wow. Silver rose 4.35% yesterday as yet again anyone trying to short a global asset is tanked. I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 48.60/49.60 with a higher 47.45 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 50.80.
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