U.S. Indices closed at session highs on Tuesday (SPX +0.6%, NDX +0.5%, RUT +0.6%) as comments from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick offer optimism over the US-China trade talks. While US-China trade talks have yet to conclude, session highs in stocks were seen on Lutnick’s reiteration that trade talks are going well. Sectors closed largely higher, with gains led in Energy (XOM +2.2%, CVX +1.9%) and Consumer Discretionary, while Industrials lagged in the red. For communications, the conversation was on OpenAI tapping Google (GOOGL +1.4%) in an unprecedented cloud deal, reducing OpenAI’s dependency on Microsoft (MSFT -0.4%). Early in the US afternoon, stocks were briefly hit by US President Trump telling Fox News that Iran is becoming much more aggressive in nuclear talks. On which, a brick wall between the US and Iran has seemingly formed, with neither side willing to give up on its demands regarding the prospect of uranium enrichment in Iran. The headline marked session highs in crude prices, which then headed lower into settlement following the EIA STEO, which marginally lowered its 2025 world oil demand forecast. However, the OPEC Sec General suggested oil demand grow this to continue, with no peak in sight. In FX, the dollar saw mixed price action, benefiting most notably against GBP following a poor UK jobs report. Gains were also present against Havens, while modest weakness was incurred vs the EUR, CAD, and AUD. The US Treasury curve flattened, albeit changes in yields were relatively small following an average 3yr note auction. Still, attention remains on the US-China trade talks (could go into tomorrow), but also on Wednesday’s US CPI report. Headline CPI is expected to rise by 2.5% Y/Y, vs the April read of 2.3%, with forecasts ranging between 2.2-2.7%. The M/M print is expected at 0.2%, matching the prior pace. Core CPI is expected to rise by 2.9% in May, accelerating from the prior 2.8%, with analyst forecasts ranging between 2.7-3.1%. The M/M core print is expected to tick up to 0.3% from 0.2%. Elsewhere both Oil and Gold closed lower on Tuesday by 0.58% and 0.2% respectively.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 705 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2094 points for June, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.55% higher at a price of 6038.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 105 points higher for a 0.25% gain at a price of 42,866.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.66% higher at a price of 21,941.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.08% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.32% higher at a price of 38,211.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.08% higher.
The Euro closed 0.01% higher at $1.1421.
The British Pound closed 0.31% lower at $1.3496.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.18% closing at $144.89.
Bonds
England’s 10-Year Gilt closed 8 basis points lower at 4.56%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 3 basis points lower at 2.53%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.47%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.58% lower at $64.91 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% lower at $3326.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the Euro-Zone or the U.K. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. CPI. Finally, we have a 10-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Lutnick was on the wires yesterday saying that trade talks with China are going well – yet we have no sign of a deal. So much good news is now priced into the S&P after one of the most dramatic rallies in the stock market since the 4805 low print on April 7. These constant misinformed headlines leave huge room for a sell-off if China do not agree. Selling rallies into these headlines worked well on Tuesday with the S&P hitting my 6030-sell level before trading lower to my 6002 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the S&P again at a price of 6035 we before the market sold off to my next T/P level at 6012 and I am now flat. I am seeing a number of negative divergences as these recovery highs and in my opinion it is only to take one hell of a sweet deal with China to sustain this rally. Therefore, I will continue with my strategy of selling spikes with reasonable T/P levels if executed. The S&P has further resistance from 6053/6073 where I will again be a seller with a higher 6091 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 6030. Today, I will continue to be a small buyer from 5905/5925 with the same 5889 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5943. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change. The Euro traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller of the Euro on any further rally to 1.1470/1.1550 with the same 1.1615 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1390. My only interest in buying the Euro is on a large move lower to 1.1140/1.1220 with the same 1.1035 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1290.
Dollar Index
No Change: The pessimism towards the Dollar is intense. Tariff uncertainty, fiscal concerns and a shifting global sentiment are just a few of the reasons cited by investors favouring alternate currencies. The CFTC Futures Contract net short position has increased to 5485 contracts. This is the largest net short stance in nearly 15 years, since August 2011, which was near the start of a four-year Dollar rally. Given this backdrop of negativity, I am happy to be long the Dollar which I am at an average rate of 99.10 with the same 98.45 ‘Closing Stop’. I will leave my T/P level on this position unchanged at 99.90. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. This morning, the Russell is trading at 2157. The key resistance area is from 2180/2190 where both the 200 Day Moving Average and 150 Day MA reside. This key resistance area is even made more pronounced by the fact that the 50 MA also resides in this region. Today, I will be a small seller from 2190/2240 with a tight 2275 ‘Closing Stop’. I no longer want to be long the Russell at this time. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2150.
FTSE 100
The FTSE rallied to my 8880-sell level before selling off to my revised 8855 T/P level as I wanted to be flat overnight. Today, I will again be a seller from 8920/8990 with a higher 9055 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 8870.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change: This morning, the Dow is trading higher at a price of 42840. We have further resistance from 43050/43300 where I will be a seller with the same 43505 ‘Closing Stop’. The Dow has short-term support below from 41850/42100 where I will continue to be a small buyer with the same 41695 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 42790. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 42330.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market rallied to my 21930-sell level before trading lower to my 21760 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 22020/22220 with a higher 22355 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 21860.
December BUND
The boring sideways price action for the Bund shows no sign of ending anytime soon. Hopefully today’s U.S. CPI print will change the narrative. Today, I will raise my buy level to 129.10/129.90 with a higher 128.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 130.55. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to find support at the 3300 level and I am still flat as the market never came close to Tuesday’s buy range. I will not chase the market higher. Gold has short-term support from 3230/3250 where I will be a small buyer with a 3215 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3275.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. This morning, Silver is trading at a new 13-year high at a price of 36.80 as the rally in Silver shows no sign of ending. In my opinion it is only a matter of time before Silver trades higher to $51 which is the all-time high from May 2011. Even though Silver is overbought short-term I will continue to be a buyer from 35.00/35.80 with the same 33.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 37.50.
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