U.S. Indices closed mixed, with the S&P and NASDAQ 100 seeing slight gains, while the RUSSELL lagged, weighed by higher US yields. Amid Fed blackout, the US highlight on Tuesday was the Preliminary BLS Benchmark total payroll revisions for March 2025, which were revised down by 911k, a steeper drop than the median estimate compiled by Bloomberg of -682k, and also outside of the BBG forecast range. The revisions, which include data from April 2024-March 2025, will see the final revision released in February 2026, alongside the January jobs report. Overall, the preliminary estimate is weak and shows that the labour market was at an even weaker point than originally estimated and adds to the already downbeat labour market concerns, which only bolsters the arguments for the Fed to lower rates. Initially, Dollar weakness and Treasuries strength were seen, but later pared. Elsewhere, geopolitical headlines dominated the space, which saw spot gold soar to another all-time-high and the crude complex extend higher, albeit currently residing well off their peaks. Recapping, Israel attacked a Hamas delegation in Qatar, and despite conflicting reports, the White House confirmed the US was notified this morning and said Witkoff was told to inform Qatari’s of the impending attack. However, Qatar said reports about being informed beforehand were false, and the call received from a US official came when the sound of explosions was heard in Doha. Sectors were mixed – Communications and Energy outperformed while Materials was the laggard as lithium names, such as ALB, weighed on after news that CATL’s Yichun lithium mine is expected to recommence production shortly. The Dollar saw upside, reversing weakness seen post-revisions, while the Japanese Yen was the relative G10 outperformer amid hawkish Bank of Japan sources. T-Notes faded the gains from the downward BLS revision into supply and inflation data, which saw a strong US 3-year auction. The Preliminary BLS Benchmark total payroll revisions for March 2025 were revised down by 911k, which was a steeper drop than the median estimate compiled by Bloomberg of -682k, and also outside of the Bloomberg forecast range of -200 to -900k. Governor Waller had expected a negative print of -720k. The revisions, which include data from April 2024-March 2025, will see the final revision released in February 2026, alongside the January jobs report – but with the downward revisions, it shows job creation from April 24-March 25 at 847k, averaging 70k per month. Nonetheless, the preliminary estimate is weak and shows that the labour market was at an even weaker point than originally estimated and adds to the already downbeat labour market concerns, which only bolsters the arguments for the Fed to lower rates. With the benchmark revisions usually revised down, it only adds to fears of the real situation in the jobs market in H2 25, given the recent slowdown. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.82% higher while Gold reversed earlier gains, closing lower by 0.3%.
To mark my 3250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 355 points yesterday and is now ahead by 727 points for September after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Recent Comments