U.S. Indices closed mixed, with the S&P and NASDAQ 100 seeing slight gains, while the RUSSELL lagged, weighed by higher US yields. Amid Fed blackout, the US highlight on Tuesday was the Preliminary BLS Benchmark total payroll revisions for March 2025, which were revised down by 911k, a steeper drop than the median estimate compiled by Bloomberg of -682k, and also outside of the BBG forecast range. The revisions, which include data from April 2024-March 2025, will see the final revision released in February 2026, alongside the January jobs report. Overall, the preliminary estimate is weak and shows that the labour market was at an even weaker point than originally estimated and adds to the already downbeat labour market concerns, which only bolsters the arguments for the Fed to lower rates. Initially, Dollar weakness and Treasuries strength were seen, but later pared. Elsewhere, geopolitical headlines dominated the space, which saw spot gold soar to another all-time-high and the crude complex extend higher, albeit currently residing well off their peaks. Recapping, Israel attacked a Hamas delegation in Qatar, and despite conflicting reports, the White House confirmed the US was notified this morning and said Witkoff was told to inform Qatari’s of the impending attack. However, Qatar said reports about being informed beforehand were false, and the call received from a US official came when the sound of explosions was heard in Doha. Sectors were mixed – Communications and Energy outperformed while Materials was the laggard as lithium names, such as ALB, weighed on after news that CATL’s Yichun lithium mine is expected to recommence production shortly. The Dollar saw upside, reversing weakness seen post-revisions, while the Japanese Yen was the relative G10 outperformer amid hawkish Bank of Japan sources. T-Notes faded the gains from the downward BLS revision into supply and inflation data, which saw a strong US 3-year auction. The Preliminary BLS Benchmark total payroll revisions for March 2025 were revised down by 911k, which was a steeper drop than the median estimate compiled by Bloomberg of -682k, and also outside of the Bloomberg forecast range of -200 to -900k. Governor Waller had expected a negative print of -720k. The revisions, which include data from April 2024-March 2025, will see the final revision released in February 2026, alongside the January jobs report – but with the downward revisions, it shows job creation from April 24-March 25 at 847k, averaging 70k per month. Nonetheless, the preliminary estimate is weak and shows that the labour market was at an even weaker point than originally estimated and adds to the already downbeat labour market concerns, which only bolsters the arguments for the Fed to lower rates. With the benchmark revisions usually revised down, it only adds to fears of the real situation in the jobs market in H2 25, given the recent slowdown. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.82% higher while Gold reversed earlier gains, closing lower by 0.3%.
To mark my 3250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 355 points yesterday and is now ahead by 727 points for September after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.27% higher at a price of 6512.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 196 points higher for a 0.43% gain at a price of 45,711.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.33% higher at a price of 23,839.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.06% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.75% higher at a price of 43,788.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.21% higher.
The Euro closed 0.39% lower at $1.1719.
The British Pound closed 0.05% lower at $1.3537.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.14% closing at $147.30
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.63%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.66%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.08%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.82% higher at $62.77 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.3% lower at $3625.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 12.00pm we have the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications, followed by PPI at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Wholesale Inventories at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a Ten-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P continues to attract strong buying on any sell-off as the market goes on hold ahead of PPI this afternoon and CPI tomorrow. JP Morgan were the latest Finance House to warn about the overvalued stock market stating: ‘‘JP Morgan’s trading desk warns the Fed’s expected September 17 rate cut could spark a sell the news drop in US Stocks. Despite the S&P 500’s 30% rebound since April, risks from inflation, weak jobs, tariffs and seasonal September weakness remain. JP Morgan suggests hedging with VIX calls and adding Gold, though history shows rate cuts can still lift markets’’. Technicals keep screaming caution and is why I have no interest in being a buyer at this time. Market Cap to GDP is now at an outrageous 214% which is just mind blowing. At 1.30 pm we get the PPI report, and estimates are for it to rise by 0.3% m/m, down from 0.9% last month, with the y/y rate expected to remain at 3.3%. If the PPI stays unchanged on a y/y basis, I would be really surprised. Every Fed regional survey shows that prices paid measures have increased significantly this year, and historically, these surveys track inflation metrics extremely well. It would seem highly odd to me not to see Producer Prices reflect this in a more meaningful way than they have so far. It would be surprising if the PPI index did not show some kind of uptick for inflation. Then again, this is the BLS—and yesterday we learned that 911,000 fewer jobs were created than originally reported, marking the largest revision to Non-Farm Payrolls ever on an absolute basis. Meanwhile, Oracle did not report the most stellar quarter, yet the stock is up about 25% after hours because it signed three deals that boosted its performance obligations by roughly 359% to $455 billion. On the call, we learned the customers were none other than OpenAI (already known), Meta, and—interestingly—Nvidia. Here is where it gets puzzling: Nvidia sells GPUs to Oracle, and then Nvidia signs contracts to use Oracle’s data centers. So what—Oracle then buys more GPUs? At the same time, Meta continues to spend at an astonishing pace, as does OpenAI. It feels like one big revolving door to me with all the same customers and suppliers. I could see if we saw big contracts for new players, but it is all the same companies. I am simply not smart enough to make sense of it—because it just does not feel right and for these reasons, I will continue to be a seller of rallies in this most overvalued stock market in history. Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the S&P spiked higher to my initial 6516 sell level before trading lower to my 6491 T/P level (low 6482) and I am now flat. Subsequently, the S&P rallied into the close, and again overnight on the back of Oracle trading at a price of 6534 this morning, which is a new all-time high. Today. I will again be a seller from 6538/6560 with a higher 6581 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6507.
EUR/USD
I am still short the Euro from last Friday at an average price of 1.1740 with the same 1.1825 ‘Closing Stop’. I will leave my 1.1670 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: One of the main factors contributing to the Dollar weakness this year was the increase in Dollar hedging by non-USD based asset managers. In 2024, the Dollar was the best performing G10 currency as the greenback rose on the tide of U.S. exceptionalism. Data from the Bank of Japan between 2021 and 2024 shows that the hedging ratio for major Japanese Life Insurers dropped from around 60% to 40% as fund managers took advantage of the upward trend in the value of the Dollar. The opposite has happened so far this year and may be running out of steam. For these reasons I am happy to be a buyer of dips in the Dollar. On Friday, the Dollar hit my buy range for a now 97.70 long position. I will add to this position at 97.00 while leaving my 96.45 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will leave my 98.50 T/P level unchanged for now. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell was weak yesterday. To reduce risk ahead of PPI I emailed my Platinum Members to exit their recent 2405 short position at my revised 2375 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 2405/2465 with the same 2505 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2365. I still do not want to be long the Russell at this time.
FTSE 100
No Change: The FTSE continues to trade in narrow ranges which is done almost every day for September. I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 9070/9150 with the same 8995 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 9205. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Just before the close the Dow hit my sell range for a 45760 short position. Subsequently post-close we had a small sell-off to my revised 45675 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the Dow does not follow both the NDX and S&P higher, trading at a price of 45665. The Dow has resistance from 45900/46160 where I will be a small seller with a 46305 tight ‘Closing Stop’. I will not chase the Dow higher preferring to leave my 44700/44950 buy level unchanged with the same tight 44495 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 45620. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 45200.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still short the NDX at a price of 23810 as the market just missed Tuesday’s 23670 T/P level before surging into the close and again overnight, trading at 23920 as I go to post. Today, I will continue to add to this position at 23970 while raising my ‘Closing Stop’ to 24165. I will also raise my T/P level to 23720. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat as the market never came close to Tuesday’s buy range. Ahead of the key inflation reports from the U.S. this afternoon and tomorrow, I will not chase the Bund higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 128.60/129.40 with the same 127.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 129.95. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold hit a high of 3676 before falling $50 into the New York close. I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 3685/3705 with the same 3731 ‘Closing Stop’. Gold has support below from 3530/3550 where I will be a small buyer with the same 3505 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 3651. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3573.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Silver continues to trade heavy which is no surprise given the rally over the past week. I will now lower my buy level to 39.20/40.10 while leaving my 38.25 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 41.05.
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