U.S. Indexes broadly saw slight strength to settle around highs as they saw a bid through the US afternoon and into Month/Quarter-end, although the Russell 2000 did still close marginally in the red. There was little headline driver for the paring of losses seen, while US data via JOLTS and Consumer Confidence were in focus. There are arguably additional eyes on the metrics, and also ADP on Wednesday, given the potential US Government shutdown, which would see neither NFP nor Initial Jobless Claims reported, so these metrics give us the latest insight into the labour market. JOLTS impressed and was above expectations, but Consumer Confidence widely disappointed. As such, T-notes saw two-way moves, falling on the better-than-expected JOLTS and then rising on the weak consumer confidence. Ultimately, Treasuries closed the day mixed, with the short-end firmer and the long-end weaker. The Dollar was slightly weaker, with the Australian Dollar outperforming following a hawkish hold by the RBA yesterday, while the crude complex was lower and ultimately weighed on by OPEC sources, to which OPEC later refuted (more below). Sectors were mixed, but with a green bias, as Energy lagged and weighed on by the aforementioned oil prices, while Health sat atop of the pile and was supported by Pfizer (+6.5%), in the wake of a raft of Trump announcements. US Job Openings rose by 7.227 million in August, improving from the prior (revised up) 7.208 million, above the expected 7.185 million. Both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. The Vacancy Rate was unchanged at 4.3%, while the Quits Rate fell to 1.9% from 2.0%. Oxford Economics wrote that the report is consistent with a roughly balanced labour market and overall did not show a material change so implications for the Fed are minimal. However, with the government at risk of a shutdown, market participants may be putting more onus on other reports about market reports (like JOLTS, ADP) if the weekly claims data and monthly NFP reports cannot be produced amid the shutdown. Consumer Confidence for September fell to 94.2 from 97.8, the lowest since April ’25, and beneath the expected 96.0. The Present Situation Index dropped to 125.4 from 132.4, while Expectations fell to 73.4 from 74.7. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions deteriorated, with 19.5% saying conditions were “good” (prev. 21.8% M/M) and 15.4% saying they were “bad” (prev. 14.6%). Views of the labour market cooled further, as 26.9% said jobs were “plentiful” (prev. 30.2%), and 19.1% said “hard to get,” unchanged M/M. Consumers were more worried about the labour market outlook, although income prospects were slightly more positive. Moreover, consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future business conditions, with 18.7% (prev. 20.2%) expecting conditions to improve. Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board, Guichard said “consumers appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings”. Guichard added, “Consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to prices and inflation rose, while references to tariffs declined. Nonetheless, consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations inched down to 5.8% in September (prev. 6.1% M/M), but is still notably above 5.0%, the level at the end of 2024.” Fed Member Collins said it may be appropriate to cut rates again if data supports easing, adding she supported the recent cut given the risks to the Fed’s mandate. She said a modestly restrictive policy is appropriate due to inflation, and although the inflation threat remains, upside risks have waned. Collins also suggested she cannot rule out worse outlooks for inflation and the job market, and the baseline outlook is relatively benign. Collins expects hiring to rebound once firms become accustomed to tariffs, and expects inflation to be elevated into 2026, before easing. On rates, she said the Fed did not lay out a preset path at the September FOMC, noting they are not out of the woods on inflation. She expects tariffs to feed through but only resulting in a small impact. Finally, Fed Member Jefferson said the labour market is softening and could see stress if not supported; expects disinflation to resume after 2025. Sees growth to remain around 1.5% for the rest of 2025 (Fed SEP median is 1.6% for ’25), and is uncertain where the neutral rate is (Fed SEP median is 3%). Jefferson added that if labour force growth continues to slow, it will impact the GDP and output gap and added that they do not need to see further softening in the labour market. On the balance sheet, he added that the size of it is something Fed members think differently about, and it continues to shrink in an orderly way. Elsewhere, Spot Gold reversed earlier losses to continue its ascent higher and printed a new All-Time-High, while Oil ended Tuesday’s session with a loss of 1.45%.
To mark my 3250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 150 points yesterday to close September with a gain of 3774 points after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.41% higher at a price of 6688.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 81 points higher for a 0.18% gain at a price of 46,397.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.28% higher at a price of 24,679.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.45% higher
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.85% lower at a price of 44,550.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.04% lower.
The Euro closed 0.01% higher at $1.1729.
The British Pound closed 0.08% higher at $1.3443.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.41% closing at $147.97
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.70%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.70%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.13%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.45% lower at $62.20 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.7% higher at $3860.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German, Euro-Zone and UK Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am and a German 10-Year Bund Auction at 10.30 am. This is followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and the DP Employment Change at 1.15 pm. Finally, we have Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm and ISM Manufacturing at 3.00 pm along with Construction Spending. Meanwhile, Fed Member Barkin is due to speak at 5.15 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Despite the decline in liquidity on Tuesday, as shown by the rise in the average repo rate, which surged to 4.31%—6 basis points above the Fed’s target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, the S&P closed at a new all-time-high. The liquidity drain likely means that SOFR will be very elevated today and could also move above the 4.25% level. This is why volumes in the reverse repo facility fell yesterday. It suggests that excess liquidity in the marketplace may be gone. If ample liquidity were still present, the overnight funding rate would likely have traded closer to the lower bound of the Fed’s target (4%), and reverse repo volumes would have been much higher. The S&P 500 Dispersion Index is now at its highest level since the tariff tantrum. It could go higher, but historically, readings at these levels have not been a good sign. Yesterday’s late surge saw the S&P hit my sell range for a 6686 short position. The expected Government shut-down sees the S&P trading 50 Handles lower this morning. This move lower saw my 6659 T/P level executed and I am now flat. Today’s S&P points gain I will take into the October numbers. The S&P has strong support below from 6570/6590 where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 6555 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term resistance from 6680/6700 where I will be a seller with the same 6725 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6615. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6658. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still short the Euro at a price of 1.1750 with the same 1.1690 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.1830 with the same 1.1915 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar traded lower to my 97.70 buy level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 97.00 with the same 96.35 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 98.25. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 2465/2525 with the same 2575 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2420.
FTSE 100
The FTSE made a new all-time on Tuesday. This move higher saw my second sell level at 9360 triggered for a now 9325 average short position. I will leave my 9425 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 9270. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Tuesday’s sell range. Today, I will leave my 46550/46800 sell level unchanged with the same 47005 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 46290. The Dow has short-term support below from 45550/45800 where I will be a small buyer with a 45395 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46040.
Cash NASDAQ 100
This morning the Government shutdown saw the NDX hit my 23490 T/P level on Monday’s 23610 short position and I am now flat. The NDX has left a large gap from last night’s Chicago close. I will be a seller on any rally back to 24600/24760 with the same 24905 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 24460.
December BUND
Ahead of this morning’s key Bund Auction I exited my latest 129.00 long Bund position at my revised 129.30 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 127.90/128.70 with a lower 127.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 129.30
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a small seller from 3888/3908 with the same 3931 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 3860. I still do not want to be long Gold at this time.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 44.00/45.00 with the same 42.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46.20.
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