U.S. Indexes broadly saw slight strength to settle around highs as they saw a bid through the US afternoon and into Month/Quarter-end, although the Russell 2000 did still close marginally in the red. There was little headline driver for the paring of losses seen, while US data via JOLTS and Consumer Confidence were in focus. There are arguably additional eyes on the metrics, and also ADP on Wednesday, given the potential US Government shutdown, which would see neither NFP nor Initial Jobless Claims reported, so these metrics give us the latest insight into the labour market. JOLTS impressed and was above expectations, but Consumer Confidence widely disappointed. As such, T-notes saw two-way moves, falling on the better-than-expected JOLTS and then rising on the weak consumer confidence. Ultimately, Treasuries closed the day mixed, with the short-end firmer and the long-end weaker. The Dollar was slightly weaker, with the Australian Dollar outperforming following a hawkish hold by the RBA yesterday, while the crude complex was lower and ultimately weighed on by OPEC sources, to which OPEC later refuted (more below). Sectors were mixed, but with a green bias, as Energy lagged and weighed on by the aforementioned oil prices, while Health sat atop of the pile and was supported by Pfizer (+6.5%), in the wake of a raft of Trump announcements. US Job Openings rose by 7.227 million in August, improving from the prior (revised up) 7.208 million, above the expected 7.185 million. Both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. The Vacancy Rate was unchanged at 4.3%, while the Quits Rate fell to 1.9% from 2.0%. Oxford Economics wrote that the report is consistent with a roughly balanced labour market and overall did not show a material change so implications for the Fed are minimal. However, with the government at risk of a shutdown, market participants may be putting more onus on other reports about market reports (like JOLTS, ADP) if the weekly claims data and monthly NFP reports cannot be produced amid the shutdown. Consumer Confidence for September fell to 94.2 from 97.8, the lowest since April ’25, and beneath the expected 96.0. The Present Situation Index dropped to 125.4 from 132.4, while Expectations fell to 73.4 from 74.7. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions deteriorated, with 19.5% saying conditions were “good” (prev. 21.8% M/M) and 15.4% saying they were “bad” (prev. 14.6%). Views of the labour market cooled further, as 26.9% said jobs were “plentiful” (prev. 30.2%), and 19.1% said “hard to get,” unchanged M/M. Consumers were more worried about the labour market outlook, although income prospects were slightly more positive. Moreover, consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future business conditions, with 18.7% (prev. 20.2%) expecting conditions to improve. Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board, Guichard said “consumers appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings”. Guichard added, “Consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to prices and inflation rose, while references to tariffs declined. Nonetheless, consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations inched down to 5.8% in September (prev. 6.1% M/M), but is still notably above 5.0%, the level at the end of 2024.” Fed Member Collins said it may be appropriate to cut rates again if data supports easing, adding she supported the recent cut given the risks to the Fed’s mandate. She said a modestly restrictive policy is appropriate due to inflation, and although the inflation threat remains, upside risks have waned. Collins also suggested she cannot rule out worse outlooks for inflation and the job market, and the baseline outlook is relatively benign. Collins expects hiring to rebound once firms become accustomed to tariffs, and expects inflation to be elevated into 2026, before easing. On rates, she said the Fed did not lay out a preset path at the September FOMC, noting they are not out of the woods on inflation. She expects tariffs to feed through but only resulting in a small impact. Finally, Fed Member Jefferson said the labour market is softening and could see stress if not supported; expects disinflation to resume after 2025. Sees growth to remain around 1.5% for the rest of 2025 (Fed SEP median is 1.6% for ’25), and is uncertain where the neutral rate is (Fed SEP median is 3%). Jefferson added that if labour force growth continues to slow, it will impact the GDP and output gap and added that they do not need to see further softening in the labour market. On the balance sheet, he added that the size of it is something Fed members think differently about, and it continues to shrink in an orderly way. Elsewhere, Spot Gold reversed earlier losses to continue its ascent higher and printed a new All-Time-High, while Oil ended Tuesday’s session with a loss of 1.45%.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 150 points yesterday to close September with a gain of 3774 points after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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