U.S. Indices closed little changed on Monday, although outperformance was seen in the NASDAQ 100 thanks to gains in the Tech and Consumer Discretionary sectors. On the flipside, Utilities, real Estate and Consumer staples underperformed while overall breadth was weak as the large-cap stocks kept indices bid. Equities were bid at the open but sold off throughout the last few hours of trade with little fresh news driving price action. Participants are still cognizant of the soft labour market report seen last Friday, ahead of inflation data this week. T-notes were firmer across the curve, but much more so in the long-end, seeing the curve bull flatten mid Trump naming Waller, Warsh and Hassettt as final three Fed Chair Picks. In FX, Antipodes outperformed while the Dollar and Japanese Yen lagged, with the Yen pressured by Japanese PM Ishiba resigning as leader of the LDP, and as such resigning from the PM role. Crude prices were bid as the OPEC-8 lifted production, albeit at a slower pace of increase of 137k bpd (as touted), while reports of fresh Russia sanctions from the US and EU also supported the upside. Although crude prices settled well off earlier peaks after Saudi Arabia cut October OSPs to NW Europe and Asia, while maintaining prices to the US from September. Gold prices continued to advance to a fresh record high on rate cut expectations, geopolitics, and dollar weakness. Attention this week turns to the BLS Benchmark Payroll revisions on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, CPI on Thursday, as well as the Senate Banking panel vote on Fed Governor Nominee Miran. Treasury traders will also be watching 3-, 10- and 30-year supply throughout the week. The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations for August saw inflation expectations tick up at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Unemployment and job loss expectations worsened. Job finding expectations declined to a series low. Spending and household income growth expectations remained broadly unchanged. Specifically, median one-year ahead inflation expectations rose 0.1% to 3.2%, but the three-year and five-year forecast horizons were unchanged at 3.0% and 2.9%. Inflation uncertainty increased for the one and three-year horizons, but declined for the five-year horizon. Home price growth was unchanged at 3.0%. On the labour market, one-year ahead earnings growth expectations fell by 0.1% to 2.5%, below the 12-month average of 2.8%. Mean unemployment expectations rose by 1.7% to 39.1%, above the 38.1% 12-month average. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months rose by 0.1% to 14.5%, also above the 14.0% average. Also, the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell markedly by 5.8% to 44.9%, the lowest readings since the start of the series. Elsewhere, both Gold and Oil rose by 1.38% and 0.8% respectively.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 150 points yesterday and is now ahead by 372 points for September after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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