It was calm before the storm on Monday as participants await key risk events, namely U.S. CPI on Wednesday, but also several Central Bank decisions, including from the ECB, BoC and RBNZ, while the FOMC Minutes will also be released post-CPI. Earnings season also starts at the tail end of this week. Stocks finished little changed but the Russell 2000 outperformed. In FX, the Dollar was sold and the Euro bid but Antipodes outperformed while the Swiss Franc lagged. The Japanese Yen was ultimately little changed but it did test 152.00 to the upside with traders cognizant of any intervention on a move above this level, particularly with CPI on Wednesday which could have a large sway in the pair. Crude prices saw choppy price action on mixed geopolitics report regarding a ceasefire which was ultimately rejected by Hamas while Iran was punchy on retaliatory language against Israel following the attack on its consulate, it also was pointing responsibility towards the U.S. Elsewhere, modest pressure was seen in oil on the Reuters report that Iraq has completed the first stage of repairing oil export pipeline to Turkey. Treasuries were firmer across the curve ahead of supply and the aforementioned risk events. Short-term consumer inflation expectations remained low in March’s New York Fed survey, whilst the longer-term gauges were mixed. One-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3%, which remains the lowest since January 2021 and is nearing the series’ pre-2020 average of 2.8% (inception in 2014); the gauge never rose above 3% between August 2014 and February 2021. However, the three-year-ahead figure jumped again from 2.7% to 2.9%, which is now back to the pre-2020 series average. The five-year-ahead expectations, which were introduced in January 2022, fell back down to 2.6% from 2.9%, in the middle of the series range of 2.00-3.00%. Elsewhere in the survey, year-ahead expected home price increases were unchanged at 3%. Participants saw larger year-ahead increases expected for food, gas, rent, and medical costs. Year-ahead expected earnings growth was steady at 2.8%. Labour market expectations were mixed. Fear of missing debt payments rose to the highest in four years but household view on personal finances improved modestly in March. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.49% lower while Gold rose a further 0.8%.
To mark my 2975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 1013 points for April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.04% lower at a price of 5202.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points lower for a 0.03% loss at a price of 38,892.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.05% lower at a price of 18,100.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.47% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.91% higher at a price of 39,347.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.14% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0858.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2655.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $151.84.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 2.44%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 4.09%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.43.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.49% lower at $86.48 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.8% higher at $2338.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the ECB Bank Lending Survey at 9.30 am, followed by the U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index at 11.00 am. Finally, we have a Three-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P just missed my 5222-sell level with a 5220 high print before falling 20 Handles into the close. Even though the VIX closed 5% lower, all three American Indexes traded in narrow ranges on what turned out to be a nothing day. Even 10-Year Treasuries rising to 4.43% could not knock the Equity Market. Today, I will raise my S&P sell level to 5228/5244 with a higher 5261 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 5160/5176 where I will continue to be a small buyer with a 5149 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long the Euro from last week at 1.0828 with the same 1.0895 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.0768 with the same 1.0712 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar traded in a narrow range, and I am still flat. Today, I will again lower my sell level tom 104.55/105.25 while leaving my 106.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
Cash DAX
The DAX finally outperformed the American Indexes yesterday and I am still flat. I will now raise my sell level to 18390/18490 with a wider 18605 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still have no interest in being long the Market. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 18305.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE traded in narrow range over the past 48 hours and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 7810/7890 with a higher 7755 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow. Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data, I still do not want to be short the market. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower 38430/38680 with the same tight 38295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 38840.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX just missed my buy range yesterday, before having a 100 point-rally off its 18050 low print. I am not going to chase the market higher, leaving 17870/18020 buy level unchanged with the same tight 17765 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time.
March BUND
The Bund continued Friday’s late sell-off, hitting yesterday’s buy range. I am now long at 131.70 with a now lower 132.25 T/P level. I will add to this position at 131.00 while leaving my 130.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold rallied $50 after I posted early yesterday morning. This latest move higher to yet another new all-time high saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a now 2334 average short position. The Daily Sentiment Index closed at 93 last night, suggesting a sell-off is imminent. I will now raise my T/P level to 2325. I will leave my ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged at 2359. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver surged over 3% yesterday from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 26.80/27.50 with a higher 25.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
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