U.S. Equity Markets were choppy on Monday and ultimately lower in a very quiet session as far as macro news flow is concerned. Nonetheless, price action was the story with Gold (> 2,100/oz) and Bitcoin (> 67k) both surging to new recent peaks as momentum/euphoria takes over. Tech was mixed with AI names rallying, including a surge in Nvidia (NVDA), while other mega-cap names struggled. Tesla (TSLA) saw big losses on weak China sales figures, while Google (GOOGL) joined the automaker and Apple (AAPL) in falling beneath its 200 Day Moving Average. Super Micro (SMCI) supported the AI bid with the company set to join the S&P 500, rallying a huge 20%. The Russell 2000, before dipping with other major Indices into the close, had initially outperformed, with SMCI and bitcoin-affiliated names providing tailwinds, while regional banks (KRE) held up well despite another dip in NYCB shares. Cross asset, US Treasuries were lower with another slew of corporate Dollar debt deals weighing in the lack of other catalysts. Fed’s Bostic (voter) gave even more comments, saying once the Fed starts cuts (he still sees two 25bp cuts in the back half of this year) it is unlikely to be back-to-back cuts. The Dollar was flat with Sterling firmer ahead of Wednesday’s budget. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen sold off on the back of higher US yields, and the Swiss Franc closed slightly lower after some fleeting strength on the hotter-than-expected Swiss CPI. Yuan was flat amid the ongoing Two Sessions in China. Oil prices were lower with the extension of OPEC+ cuts into Q2 very much expected, meanwhile, Gaza ceasefire negotiations continue. Nat gas prices surged after EQT cut production. Fed Member Bostic said he would not anticipate that cuts, when they start, would be “back-to-back”. The Atlanta Fed President noted a third quarter cut will likely be followed by a pause, but he still expects two 25bps rate cuts this year (current market pricing has 84bps of cuts in 2024, vs the 75bp suggested in the Fed December Dot Plots). On the economy, Bostic added the strength of the economy and job market means the Fed has the “luxury” of proceeding without “urgency”. In addition, on inflation, Bostic declared “pent-up exuberance” in the economy is an upside risk to inflation that “bears scrutiny”. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.56% while Gold continued Friday’s breakout, closing higher by 1.2%
To mark my 2925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 37 points yesterday and is now ahead by 442 points for March. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.12% lower at a price of 5130.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 97 points lower for a 0.25% loss at a price of 38,989.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.42% lower at a price of 18,226.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.03% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.50% higher at a price of 40,109.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.02% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0850.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.2688.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $150.52.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.40%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 4.22%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.22%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.56% lower at $78.72 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.2% higher at $2115.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Services PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone PPI at 10.00 am ahead of U.S. Services PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have ISM Services PMI, Factory Orders and a speech from Fed Member Barr at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Following on from yesterday’s Daily Commentary, we are witnessing something none of us have ever experienced. This is the longest continuous rally since 1971. The closest we have as a reference is 2017 and now the challenge is to figure what type of beast we are dealing with here and what our options are. On the cynic side the Fed have already stated that if we see any major downside when the RRP no longer will be a liquidity backstop, they will intervene. 26.2% of the gains in the S&P for February have come from one stock -NVIDIA- making it very uncomfortable given all the distortions. I have stated many times that when the 14 Day RSI exceeds 73, I will go short. At one stage yesterday the RSI was at 76. I can point out all sorts of troubling aspects here, the Weekly RSIs, the divergences, even problems in stocks such as Apple and Google. The S&P hit a late high at 5150 before falling over 20 Handles into the close. I am still short at an average rate of 5126 with the same 5114 T/P level. I will continue to have no stop on this position. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro again traded in a narrow range, and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1.0740/1.0810 with a now higher 1.0675 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 1.0860.
Dollar Index
No Change. I am still flat the Dollar. I will continue to be a seller from 104.35/105.05 with the same 105.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
No Change. I have no edge in the DAX at this time. The RSI is fried to the upside. I just cannot justify a long position here while I still have no interest in been short, as I prefer to sell the American Indexes. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE continues to trade heavy, totally ignoring the surge in American Indexes over the past week. Yesterday’s move lower saw my 7630-buy level triggered. I am still long with a now lower 7670 T/P level. I will add to this position at 7570 while leaving my 7525 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, the Dow again missed yesterday’s initial 38800 buy level by just 60 points before rallying 230 points. I am still flat. I will not chase the Dow higher leaving my 38550/38800 buy level unchanged with the same 38595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX hit a new all-time high at 18340 late yesterday before falling 130 points into the close. I am still short from last Friday at an average rate of 18110. I will continue to hold this position with no T/P level or Stop for now. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
My Bund plan worked well as the market sold off to 132.10 buy level before rallying to my 132.42 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 131.10/131.90 with a lower 130.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continued to build on Friday’s breakout, tagging on a further $43. This move higher sees Gold now overbought. Gold has support from 2080/2095. I will raise my buy level to this area with a higher 2069 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2107.
Silver Rolling Contract
I have said a number of times this year that ‘’Patience’’ is required in order to make sustained points in 2024. I am glad that I have stuck to the long-side in Silver, despite been offside on my latest 24.24 average long position for the past month. Thankfully, Silver rallied 3% yesterday and is now trading just below my entry point at 23.92 this morning. I will now have a T/P level on this position at 25.10. I will continue to hold this position with no stop. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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