U.S. Indexes saw mild gains to start the week as NVIDIA gains (PT raise at Jefferies) supported in light newsflow, with Fed speak coming via Williams, Musalem, and Hammack, and US data in Pending Home Sales, which was better than expected. On the Fed footing, little new was said, and the influential New York Fed President reiterated data dependence. Sectors were almost exclusively in the green with only Energy and Communications in the red, with the former weighed on by weakness in the crude complex amid a couple of bearish factors: 1) Kpler’s Bakr reported that OPEC+ will likely raise oil production quotas by at least 137k bpd at its October 5th meeting; 2) resumption of flows on the Ceyhan pipeline. In FX, the Dollar saw weakness to the benefit of G10 FX peers, with the Japanese Yen outperforming and buoyed by comments from Bank of Japan’s Noguchi overnight, whereby he noted that upside risks are becoming more important in making policy decisions, and the need to adjust policy has heightened. Treasuries saw slight gains and within thin ranges ahead of a slew of US jobs data this week, which culminates with US Payrolls on Friday. Another thing to watch is the looming US Government shutdown, whereby BLS said it plans not to release economic data during the Government shutdown and will suspend all operations. Pending Home Sales rose 4% in August, above the expected +0.2% and the prior -0.3%. Pending Sales lifted M/M in the Midwest, South, and West, and declined in the Northeast – Y/Y sales increased in all regions. NAR Chief Economist Yun said, “Lower mortgage rates are enabling more homebuyers to go under contract. In the Midwest, low mortgage rates combined with high levels of affordability are attracting more buyers compared to other regions.” Williams, The NY Fed President said monetary policy continues to be restrictive and they are still in a position to put downward pressure on inflation. Williams noted that some upside inflation risks have ebbed, so it made sense to cut rates. He reiterated his view of a low-neutral rate era being far from over, saying his model estimate for the real neutral rate is 0.75%. Ahead, Williams noted the Fed are to decide on monetary policy meeting-by-meeting. Musalem, The St. Louis Fed President once again argued there is limited room before policy becomes too loose. Similar to Hammack, Musalem noted the impact of tariffs has been more muted than expected, and is only responsible for perhaps 10% of current inflation. Going forward, Musalem expects inflation to be elevated for two or three quarters. On policy, Musalem said it is between modestly restrictive and neutral; open-minded to future potential cuts but needs to be cautious. Finally, Fed Member Hammack maintained her recent posture, voicing concerns over inflation. Hammack continues to view policy as a short distance from neutral and the need to maintain restrictive policy, with current policy “mildly restrictive”. Hammack sees inflation reaching 2% target in late 2027 or early 2028. She views inflation as a greater concern than employment, noting that services inflation has remained elevated and is concerning. Ahead, the Cleveland Fed President expects firms to pass on more of tariffs; More difficult to see that tariffs will be a one-time impact. Elsewhere, Oil got hit hard on Monday ending the session lower by 4% while Gold closed at a new all-time high with a near 2% gain.
To mark my 3250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 380 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3624 points for September after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.26% higher at a price of 6661.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 68 points higher for a 0.15% gain at a price of 46,316.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.44% higher at a price of 24,611.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.34% higher
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.1% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.18% lower at a price of 44,962.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.24% lower.
The Euro closed 0.21% higher at $1.1728.
The British Pound closed 0.26% higher at $1.3435.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.59% closing at $148.60
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points lower at 4.71%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 4 basis points lower at 2.71%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 4.14%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.94% lower at $63.13 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.79% higher at $3827.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of UK Final Q2 GDP which rose 0.3% as expected. Also released was German Retail Sales for August which printed – 0.2% versus + 0.6% expected. Next, we have German Unemployment at 8.55 am and CPI at 1.00 pm. This is followed by U.S. House Price Index at 2.00 pm and the Chicago PMI Index at 2.45 pm. At 3.00 pm we have Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings. Finally, we have speeches from ECB President Lagarde at 1.50 pm, Bank of England Member Mann at 2.25 pm while Fed Members Collins speaks at 2.00 pm and Goolsbee at 6.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Selling rallies near contract highs worked again yesterday with the S&P hitting my sell range for a 6679 short position before selling off to my 6658 revised T/P level and I am now flat. There is no doubt that Treasury Secretary Bessent is watching the stock market like a hawk. Following three down days last week for a total 1.4% loss, Bessent hit the wires stating that ‘I think we can get the stock market up’. This is a lot more explicit and in your face that what Janet Yellen was. With these type of statements it is no surprise that we have not seen any follow through to the down side since the April 9 bottom at 4810. On Friday we get the latest NFP release. Ever since the head of the BLS got fired for reporting unfavorable data all economic data reported suddenly shows nothing but good news. Q2 GDP 3.8%, Q3 GDP 3.8% and the labour market suddenly looking better. How can the Fed have cut rates against this backdrop. Now the Trump administration wants to end Quarterly earnings from 2026 – just having half-yearly earnings instead. Everybody is long and so far nobody is wrong. However, as I have outlined over the past few weeks I have trouble buying this market without seeing a dip first. Today, I will again be a seller from 6682/6702 with a higher 6725 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my buy level to 6585/6605 with a higher 6569 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6659. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6623. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro rallied to my 1.1750 sell level. I am still short with the same 1.1915 ‘Closing Stop’ I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.1830. I will now raise my T/P level to 1.1690. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer of the Dollar on any further dip lower to 97.00/97.70 with the same 96.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 98.30.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 2465/2525 with the same 2575 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2420.
FTSE 100
I am still short from last Friday at a price of 9290. I will continue to look to add to this position at 9360 while leaving my 9425 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. Meanwhile, I will leave my 9240 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Monday’s sell range. Today, I will leave my 46550/46800 sell level unchanged with the same 47005 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 46290. I still have no interest in buying the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still short from early yesterday at 24610. I will continue to look to add to this position at 24780 while leaving my 24905 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. Meanwhile, I will leave my 24490 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
At least the Bund rallied 40 points yesterday. I am still long at 129.00 with the same 129.60 T/P level. I will add to this position at 128.30 while leaving my 127.85 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold pan worked well but you had to be quick to take any gain. Shortly after I posted Gold traded higher to my 3830-sell level before trading lower to my revised 3813 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning Gold is trading at a new all-time high at 3865. We have further short-term resistance from 3888/3908 where I will again be a seller with a higher 3931 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 3858. I still do not want to be long Gold at this time.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 44.00/45.00 with the same 42.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46.20.
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