U.S Equity Markets saw mild gains on Monday with outperformance in the NASDAQ as gains in Consumer Discretionary and Communication names, like AMZN, TSLA, META, GOOGL, supported the move higher. It appeared to be an unwind of the short NASDAQ/long RUSSELL 2000 trade with the Russell notably underperforming on Monday. Similar in the treasury space, recent steepening was unwound with the curve flattening ahead of key risk events, including the Bank of Japan, FOMC, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Non-Farm Payrolls, key tech earnings, as well as Quarterly Refunding. There was a lack of tier 1 data yesterday although the refinancing estimates ahead of the QRA saw the treasury lower its estimated financing needs as expected, although it was on the lower end of forecasts, while the Q4 estimates were within the forecast range. Crude chopped to geopolitics but was ultimately settled in the red despite futures gapping higher on the open in response to the Hezbollah strike on Israel’s Golan heights, although the West is pursuing the Israeli response not to lead to an escalated war. Elsewhere, oil closed Monday with a loss of 1.72% while Gold ended flat following a session that saw plenty of two-way price action.
To mark my 3025th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 248 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1608 points for July after closing June with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.08% higher at a price of 5463.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 49 points lower for a 0.12% lower at a price of 40,539.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.19% higher at a price of 19,059.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.18% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.15% higher at a price of 38,525.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.25% higher.
The Euro closed 0.24% lower at $1.0820.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2857.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $154.00.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower 2.36%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 4.05%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.17%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.72% lower at $75.83 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% lower at $2382 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GDP at 9.00 am. This is followed at 10.00 am by Euro-Zone GDP and the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Next, we have German CPI at 1.00 pm. At 2.00 pm we have U.S. Housing Price Index. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Confidence. Remember after the close this evening we have the latest earnings report from Microsoft.
Cash S&P 500
Normally, the month of August is seasonally a bearish month for U.S. Equity Markets. However, in Presidential Election years the month of August tends to be bullish. Looking at the seasonal chart it looks to me that another set of highs are coming next month or at least another rip higher from here. As I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary that buybacks are coming in August and who has the biggest buyback? Tech of course which will greatly help the S&P to recover some of its losses from the past 10 trading sessions. Most of the large S&P companies are reporting this week. So far earnings growth appears very solid this quarter. The S&P is reporting Y/Y earnings of 9.8% for Q2, 2024, which is above the estimate of 8.9% on June 30. As true bear cases come from weak/declining earnings. If these earnings track, then this is another argument for a renewed rally. However, Market Sentiment readings are at dangerous levels which is a concern for bulls. The question is when these things matter and perhaps as long as earnings remain supportive then they will not matter for now. With McDonalds reporting their weakest number in four years maybe the Fed will use the economic slowdown to cut rates at tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting. Remember there is not another FOMC Meeting until September which is only a few weeks from the November Presidential Elections. Frustratingly, the S&P just missed my initial 5540 buy level with a 5542 low print overnight before rallying to sit at a price of 5464 as I go to press. Today, I will raise my buy level slightly to 5428/5442 with a higher 5415 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
Although the Euro again traded in a narrow range the market did sell-off to my 1.0820 buy level. I am still long, and I will add to this position at 1.0760 with a now lower 1.0695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0870. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: The last six trading sessions have seen the Dollar trade in a 30-point range. This I find incredible given the vast two-way price action in Dollar/Yen. This morning, the Dollar is trading higher at a price of 104.58. I am still flat the Dollar as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 103.20/103.90 with the same 102.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
Surprisingly the DAX fell 200 points to my 18310-buy level. As I want to keep banking points when available, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at my revised 18358 T/P level and I am now flat. The DAX has further support below from 18120/18200 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 18045 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 18280. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE reversed some of Friday’s gains, hitting my 8270-buy level overnight. I am still long with a now lower 8310 T/P level. I will add to this trade on any further move lower to 8200 while leaving my 8145 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market sold off to my 40460-buy level before rallying almost 200 points. This move higher saw my 40550 revised T/P level triggered and I am now flat. A late sell-off sees the Dow trading at a price of 40530 as I go to press. Ahead of Microsoft earnings after the close this evening means my only interest in buying the Dow is on a move lower to 40050/40300 with a lower 39895 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Meeting I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well. Shortly after the American Cash Markets opened, the NDX made a high at 19225 before falling over 250 points. This move lower saw my 19020-buy level triggered before rallying to my revised 19130 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 18800/18950 with a now lower 18695 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
September BUND
The Bund continues to build value above the key 130.50 support level which was tested two weeks ago. This morning the Bund is trading at a price of 133.25 as I go to press. I am still flat. I will now raise my sell level to 133.75/134.45 while leaving my 135.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I no longer want to be long the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
So far Gold has not confirmed the recent lows in Silver. I am still flat as Gold never came close to yesterday’s buy range before closing Monday unchanged. Today, I will continue to be a small buyer on any dip lower to 2348/2364 with the same 2339 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2375.
Silver Rolling Contract
Yesterday, saw Silver record an outside day, with a higher high and a lower low than Friday’s range. However, Monday’s close was very near Friday’s close of $27.94, so there was not much damage at the session’s end. Silver is oversold having fallen over 11% last week. I am still long Silver at a price of 29.80. This morning Silver is trading at 27.90 as I go to press. I will now cancel my stop on this position and instead I will look for a spot to add to my Silver portfolio over the coming days. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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