U.S. Indices closed mixed on Monday with markets chopping to the US/EU trade announcement. The news of the deal, which includes a 15% tariff, was initially hailed by markets as a step in the right direction, but sentiment on the deal swiftly turned. European officials do not seem pleased with the deal, with German Chancellor Merz warning of the significant impact it will have on the German economy, while The New York Post reported that Macron was still displeased with the deal and has been calling for the implementation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument, even after the deal was agreed. Overall, the deal is being framed as a win for the US but a loss for the EU, keeping tensions high despite the deal. Elsewhere on trade, the third round of US/China talks resumed yesterday and are set to continue today, but negotiators made no remarks to the press in the wake of the meeting. In the US, sectors were mixed with Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Tech leading gains, helping keep the Nasdaq buoyed ahead of key tech earnings this week from AAPL, META, MSFT and AMZN. All other sectors were red, with notable weakness in Real Estate, Materials and Utilities. The energy upside was buoyed by firmer crude prices after President Trump announced he is going to reduce Russia’s 50-day deadline for peace with Ukraine to 10 or 12 days from today. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ JMMC made no policy recommendation at Monday’s meeting. T-Notes saw two-way trade with upside in the morning faded ahead of supply with the 2 Year auction strong but 5 Year soft, while the Treasury announced much higher borrowing estimates for the July-September quarter than previously touted. In FX, the Dollar outperformed while the Euro lagged in wake of the trade deal. There are still plenty of key risk events this week, including the aforementioned earnings, but also US/China talks on Tuesday, US GDP and Fed on Wednesday, PCE on Thursday, NFP on Friday, as well as the August 1st trade deadline (Fri). Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 2.6% while a stronger Dollar saw Gold end Monday’s session with a loss of 0.66%.
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