U.S. Indices ended Monday’s trading session with gains in what was a very choppy session as Middle East tensions ruled the roost. At the reopening of trade, the crude complex gapped higher while US equity futures gapped lower after the US attacked Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend in what was a clear escalation of the Israel/Iran war. As such, WTI and Brent soared to highs of USD 78.40/bbl and 81.40/bbl, respectively, before swiftly paring amid profit-taking and an absence of further escalation in the US morning. However, as the session continued and European players left for the day, the Iranian retaliation attack on the US occurred, but it was largely seen as ‘de-escalatory’ and as such WTI and Brent tumbled to lows of USD 68.20/bbl and 71.15/bbl, highlighting a USD 10/bbl swing in benchmarks on the day, while US Indices gained. On Iran’s response, it was seen as a ‘symbolic’ attack on the US rather than one to cause damage – Iran warned Qatar and the Trump admin hours before the attack to limit the damage, and while they attacked the largest US military base in the Middle East, it has been widely circulated that it has been vacated with no personnel in it at the moment. Note, that reports initially said Iran targeted bases in Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, but a US military official confirmed no Iranian attack was recorded at any US base other than Qatar. The Dollar was also choppy but ultimately settled with losses amid risk-on trade to the benefit of the majority of G10 peers. On top of geopoliticals, which did dominate, Fed’s Bowman was notably dovish and joined the Waller camp in stating open to cutting rates as soon as the July FOMC meeting if inflation pressures stay contained. The reaction saw a dovish move across markets, so Treasuries and Equities lifted, while the Dollar sold off. Sectors were exclusively firmer, aside from Energy, which was weighed on by the losses in the crude complex. Elsewhere, US Flash PMIs garnered little reaction but Manufacturing was surprisingly unchanged, against an expected fall, while Services fell less than anticipated. Into the close, the above moves accentuated as Trump posted on Truth, the Iran response was very weak, confirmed Iran had let them know, no US officials died, and now encourages world peace. Fed Member Bowman (voter) struck a notably dovish tone, following in the footsteps of known dove Waller last week, continue to highlight a potential divide forming between FOMC Committee members. Bowman said she is open to cutting rates as soon as the July FOMC meeting if inflation pressures stay contained, and ‘it is time to consider adjusting the policy rate’. Bowman added they should put more weight on downside risks to the job market going forward, and trade policy is only likely to have ‘minimal impacts’ on inflation. She added data not showing much impact from trade policy shifts, the Government policy changes should lower inflation risks, and tariffs likely to have a small impact on inflation. Note, that Bowman, after Waller, is the second Committee member to signal a willingness for a July cut, and both of them are Governors. The year-end 2025 median SEP dot plot signalled 50bps of cuts, but with a hawkish composition, as if 1 Committee member shifted to 25bps of cuts this year (from 50bps) the median would have shifted to 25bps of cuts. Meanwhile, Goolsbee (voter) said it’s critical to look at soft economic data at the current moment of transition. On tariffs, the Chicago Fed President said the impact is blunted by lowered levels and exemptions, the surprise so far is that inflation has not jumped yet on tariffs, and “Less immediate pass through of tariffs relative to past”. Moreover, if they do not see an inflation jump on tariffs, then the economy is still on the golden patch. On the job market, Goolsbee noted so far, immigration enforcement hasn’t had a major impact on the job market. The U.S. Composite Index fell to 52.8 from 53.0, and was largely due to Services PMI falling to 53.1 from 53.7, albeit above the expected 53.0. Manufacturing was unchanged at 52.0, but again above the forecasted 51.0. The June flash PMI data indicated that the US economy continued to grow, but that the outlook remains uncertain while inflationary pressures have risen sharply in the past two months. The report further adds that stronger domestic demand is partly due to stock building, although “Such a boost is likely to unwind in the coming months”, and noted that “Prices for goods have meanwhile jumped sharply again, the rate of increase accelerating to a three year high as firms pass higher tariff-related costs on to customers.” The report concludes, “…data therefore corroborate speculation that the Fed will remain on hold for some time…”. Elsewhere, Oil had a massive reversal, closing Monday with a loss of 7% while Gold was flat.
To mark my 3200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 70 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4470 points for June, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.96% higher at a price of 6025.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 374 points higher for a 0.89% gain at a price of 42,581.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.06% higher at a price of 21,856.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.28% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.24% higher at a price of 38,828.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.27% lower.
The Euro closed 0.46% higher at $1.1573.
The British Pound closed 0.56% higher at $1.3521.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.04% closing at $146.18.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points lower at 4.50%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.51%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 9 basis points lower at 4.31%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 7.12% lower at $68.58 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.3% higher at $3378.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Survey at 9.00 am, followed by a speech from ECB Member De Guindos at 12.15 pm. Next, we have the U.S. Current Account at 1.30 pm and the Housing Market Index at 2.00 pm. Fed Chair Powell is testifying before the Joint Economic Committee on Monetary Policy at 3.00 pm. At 6.00 pm we have a Two-year Treasury Auction. Finally, Fed Members Williams, Collins and Barr are speaking at 5.30 pm, 7.05 pm and 9.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
- We face the highest geopolitical risks in many decades (which will not be resolved quickly).
- We face the largest level of social and political risks in the US since the Vietnam War.
- We face the greatest chance of “slugflation” (slowing economic growth and sticky inflation) since the 1970s.
- We face the biggest threat that the US dollar and capital markets will no longer be a “safe haven” in modern history.
- We face the greatest debt load and deficit ever—and neither party seems to favor any fiscal discipline whatsoever.
- We face the largest capital spending spree in history (on artificial intelligence) though the return on that investment is less certain.
- We face a viable alternative to equities in fixed income (for the first time in 15 years) as bonds present an equity-equivalent yield with limited risk and volatility.”
If you were told that all of the above was going to happen a few months ago you would expect the S&P to be trading lower by 5/10% instead following the announcement by President Trump overnight that Iran and Israel have now announced a ceasefire the S&P is now less than 1% from its Feb all-time high of 6145. But here we are as my ‘Nothing Matters’ theme continues to influence markets. I learnt many years ago to respect the price action in markets and if markets continue to ignore bad news and rally this has to be respected. Yes, we have tried to short markets over the past 18 months but if you are not quick to take any gains then they will evaporate in minutes. This morning the S&P is trading at a price of 6075 – 125 Handles higher from where I marked prices yesterday morning. This move higher saw the S&P gap above Monday’s sell range and I am now short at 6045. Given the number of gains for June I will now add to this position at 6085 with a now higher 6101 ‘Closing Stop’. I will also raise my T/P level on this position to 6028. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I certainly did not expect the Euro to be trading above 1.16 this morning when I woke up. This move higher saw the whole of Monday’s sell range triggered for a now 1.1575 average short position. I will leave my tight 1.1665 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 1.1520. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the Dollar thankfully rallied to my 99.30 T/P level on my latest 98.60 long position and I am now flat. With sentiment readings indicating that a bottom in the Dollar is close I will continue to be a buyer of the market on dips. The Dollar has strong support at 97.50 which is the year-to-date low. Therefore, I will be an aggressive buyer of the Dollar from 97.00/97.80 with a lower 96.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 98.70.
Russell 2000
Frustratingly, the Russell twice missed Monday’s 2080 initial buy level by three points before rallying to sit at 2165 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 2040/2120 with a higher 1985 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2170.
FTSE 100
The FTSE quicky reversed Monday’s sell-off, trading back above 8800 this morning. The FTSE has resistance from 8870/8950 where I will be a seller with a 9025 ‘Closing Stop’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow is now trading over 1200 points higher from the lows of early Monday morning as yet again anyone trying to short this market is slammed. The Dow has short-term resistance from 43200/43450 where I will be a small seller with a higher 43605 ‘Closing Stop’. Despite the positive price action I no longer want to be long the Dow at this time. Remember we still have no new trade deals announced as we quickly move forward to the July 9th deadline.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX never came close to Monday’s buy range before surging overnight on the ceasefire announcement. This move higher has me short the NDX at a now average rate of 22060 as emailed to my Platinum Members late yesterday. I will leave my 21305 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level on this position to 21950. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
No Change: I am still flat the Bund as I continue to be a small buyer on any further move lower to 129.40/130.20 with a higher 128.65 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 130.80. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
On the back of the ceasefire announcement, Gold is trading 1.5% lower at a price of 3317 this morning. Gold has support below from 3240/3260 where I will be a small buyer with a 3225 ‘Closing Stop’. I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 3420/3440 with the same 3461 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3287. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 3397.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver from last week at 36.30. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 35.30 while leaving my 33.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 36.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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