U.S. Indexes closed higher on Monday, owing a large part of the gains to a strategic partnership announced between NVIDIA and OpenAI. The deal is to see NVDA invest up to USD 100 billion in OpenAI, deploying 10GW of AI centres, first to deploy in 2026. NVDA (+3.9%) saw upside on the news alongside a boost to the semiconductors and the tech sector, as well as equity indices. Meanwhile, Communications was the clear laggard amid lacklustre trade in Alphabet (GOOGL, -0.9%) and Meta (META, -1.7%). Macro updates were largely contained to central bank speakers. At the Fed, caution was argued from Musalem (2025 voter) and Bostic (2027 voter), the latter citing concerns over inflation. Meanwhile, Hammack (2026 voter) revealed herself as being in the upper end of estimates for neutral. Governor Miran further explained his dissent, reiterating his softer outlook on inflation amid immigration and fiscal policies. In FX, the Dollar Index traded lower due to strength in both Sterling and the Euro. Despite the numerous Fed speakers on the calendar, moves in the FX and Treasuries were muted in the wake of the remarks. T-Notes settled marginally lower ahead of the 2-year supply on Tuesday and S&P Global’s Flash PMI (Sept). Fed Chair Powell will be the key event on Tuesday, where he is due to speak on the economic outlook; Bowman (voter, dove) and Bostic (2027 voter, Hawk) will speak. Separately, crude prices were little changed following light newsflow. Energy developments included reports that Iraq is to sign a deal with oil firms to resume Kurdish exports, likely bringing back 230k BPD to international markets. Elsewhere, Gold prices benefitted from the softer dollar, continuing its ascent to new record highs, now trading a touch below USD 3,750/oz. In EMs, the ARS surged after US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced “all options are on the table” for the US to support Argentina’s government. Fed Governor Miran (voter), in his remarks explaining his dissent at last week’s FOMC (where he voted for a larger 50bps rate reduction), said he sees policy as ‘considerably restrictive’ and a threat to momentum, and he favours a quicker move to neutral. He argued that it was better to vote for what he believes in, rather than trying to support consensus, adding that unless something changes, he will continue to press for rate cuts, and is willing to dissent again. He believes the appropriate funds rate is mid-2%, and that restrictive rates would risk layoffs and higher unemployment. Miran said his focus was on lowering inflation and supporting the labour market; he remains committed to 2% inflation and anticipates rent inflation falling from 3.5% to 1.5% by 2027. Miran argues forecasters have underappreciated the impact of immigration policy on rent inflation and notes that net zero immigration would imply 1ppt lower rent inflation per year. Fed Member Hammack (2026 voter) said last week’s rate cut reflected a changing balance of risks. She warned the Fed should be cautious in removing policy restrictions, noting her estimate of the neutral rate is relatively high versus the rest of the Committee, and she thinks that current policy is only modestly restrictive. Hammack cautioned that easing too quickly could fuel inflation and risk overheating the economy. On inflation, Hammack expects pressures to persist, driven by both goods and services. On the labour market, she said headline payrolls show some softening, but unemployment at 4.3% remains healthy. Hiring is cautious, with businesses reluctant to expand, but indicators such as the openings-to-unemployed ratio suggest a robust market. She expects unemployment to rise slightly but is not seeing significant layoffs. The Fed’s Bostic -2027 voter – confirmed to the Wall Street Journal his position on the September 2025 dot plot, seeing no further rate cuts as of now, a view he has held for some time (he previously argued for one cut this year). Bostic cited inflation concerns behind his hesitation to support further easing in October, even though economic risks have shifted in recent months toward greater worries about employment. However, Bostic said the dot plot submissions were filled out “with a very light pencil”, highlighting Chair Powell’s remarks post-FOMC last week, that the projections do not indicate a set path for rates, but a lens of probabilities. The Atlanta Fed President named the current moment as “one of the most difficult” periods for policymakers because “both risks are rising”. Bostic does not believe that the labour market is in crisis right now. “It’s an open question about exactly how weak it is”. Ahead, he sees core inflation at 3.1% by year-end (prev. said 2.9% in July) and the unemployment rate at 4.5%. He does not expect inflation to return to the 2% goal until 2027. On tariffs, Bostic said tariff-driven cost increases have been more muted than initially projected in part because businesses have used various strategies that are spreading out or delaying the pass-through to consumers. “Those buffers could be exhausted over the coming months”. In that case, the economy might avoid a much-feared immediate run-up in prices but instead endure a longer period of moderate price pressures. Bostic estimates that workforce supply constraints explain around one-third of the recent slowdown in hiring. He expects those pressures to increase because of an approximately one-year lag starting from when people immigrate and when they receive work permits. This means immigrants who legally entered the country last year could still be moving into the workforce. “The supply challenge is going to get more acute.” Elsewhere, Oil closed flat following a volatile trading session while Gold surged a further 1.65%, closing at a new all-time high at $3745.
To mark my 3250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 177 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2567 points for September after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.44% higher at a price of 6693.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points higher for a 0.14% gain at a price of 46,381.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.55% higher at a price of 24,761.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.08% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.99% higher at a price of 45,493.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.30% lower.
The Euro closed 0.39% higher at $1.1796.
The British Pound closed 0.34% higher at $1.3517.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.18% closing at $147.67
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.71%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.74%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.15%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.26% lower at $62.64 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.65% higher at $3745.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Manufacturing PMI at 8.30 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have U.K. CBI Industrial Trends at 11.00 am followed by a speech from Fed Member Bowman at 2.00 pm. At 2.45 pm we have U.S. Manufacturing PMI. Finally, we have the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.00 pm and a speech from Fed Chair Powell at 5.35 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The next two/three weeks should offer the best shot for technical signals to trigger some downside. The RRP will be drained, share buybacks are coming out while the seasonal weakness of Rosh Hashanah into Yom Kippur and upcoming Quarter End rebalancing. These re all various historic and liquidity reasons why we should see some sort of pullback coming. Technically, charts show an insanely extended market with shares like Google showing a Monthly RSI of 82 after its vertical rip higher since the April lows. Google is now so far outside both its Weekly and Monthly Bollinger Band where in my opinion there is absolutely no positive risk/reward to chase here. Today, the NYSI Stochastic has just been released and is maximum overbought. While this signal may take a few days to correct, historically it has been a good barometer for a market turn. The past 13 weeks have only produced on red candle which was August 1 when the S&P hit a late session low of 6209. In just 7 weeks the S&P has rallied nearly 500 Handles in a straight line. With charts so extended I came across the following quote from Druckenmiller over the weekend in 2000 highlighting this very issue:
Looking at the same charts I can hear that same voice: Don’t buy and I will remain patient until we get a meaningful correction first. The 14 Day RSI close above 75 last night. Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the S&P traded lower to my 6644 T/P level on my latest 6660 short position. Subsequently, after the S&P rallied to new all-time highs I went short again at an average rate of 6674. I am still short with a 6701 ‘Closing Stop’. I will have a T/P level on this position at 6656. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. It is interesting that on a day when the S&P made a new all-time high that the VIX ended Monday’s session with a gain of over 4%. This is the second trading session in a week when the S&P made a new high that the VIX closed higher. Historically, a rising VIX into a rising market is a warning for lower prices ahead.
EUR/USD
Overnight, the Euro rallied to my 1.1820 initial sell level. I am still short with a now higher 1.1770 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move higher to 1.1900 while leaving my 1.1965 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
Overnight, the Dollar sold off to my buy range for a now 97.25 long position. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 96.55 while leaving my 95.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 97.80. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
To reduce risk I emailed my Platinum Members to exit their 2750 average short Russell position at my revised 2433 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 2480/2550 with a higher 2605 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2440.
FTSE 100
I am still flat. The FTSE continues to trade in narrow daily ranges making it difficult to make any points on this market. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 9270/9340 with the same 9405 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9220. I no longer want to be long the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The Dow traded in a wide 400 points on Monday. Given how overbought the Dow is trading technically, I will continue to be a seller from 46600/46850 with the same 47005 ’Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 46320. I still have no interest in buying the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still short from last week at an average rate of 24520. The market came within a whisker of stopping me out last night. Today, I will leave my 24765 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 24450. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still long the Bund at 129.00 with the same 129.60 T/P level. I will add to this position at 128.30 while leaving my 127.85 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold surged on Monday, trading the whole of my sell range for a now 3726 average short position as emailed to my Platinum Members. I will leave my 3751 tight ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 3710. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver continued to build higher momentum throughout Monday’s session, hitting new highs for the year above $44. Today, I am going to stay flat the Silver market as I want to see the price action now that we are at new year-to-date highs. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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