U.S. Indices closed higher on Monday. The trading day was quiet, but stocks trended higher throughout Europe and the US sessions before paring slightly into the close – the Russell led the gains. Materials, Financials and Energy outperformed sector wise with Materials benefitting from upside in metals prices. The Energy sector was buoyed by gains in crude prices as geopolitical tensions mount with regard to Venezuela, Russia/Ukraine, and Syria. There are also concerns regarding Israel and Iran after Iran conducted missile drills. Regarding the laggards, Staples was the only sector in the red, while Tech and Utilities also underperformed, albeit still closed green. Chip names were firmer with SMH and SOXX ETF rising over 1% with NVIDIA (NVDA) gaining on reports it is preparing to export H200 chips to China from mid-February in 2026, albeit it is still awaiting government approval. T-Notes settled slightly lower across the curve ahead of supply this week, while the 2-year note auction was lacklustre, albeit with little reaction. Miran also spoke, who hinted at slowing down his rate cut votes to 25bps from his usual 50bps dissent, but also no move was seen with the Fed largely expected to hold in January following the guidance tweak in December. In FX, the Dollar lagged while Antipodes outperformed on the upside in stocks and base metals. The Japanese Yen also strengthened after more commentary from Finance Minister Katayama – who said they have a free hand to take bold action on the Yen. Attention turns to the quarterly PCE and GDP data on Tuesday, as well as Consumer Confidence and Industrial production. Treasury traders will be eyeing the auctions ahead of Christmas. Fed Governor Miran refused to commit to a January decision, as when he was asked about reducing rates by 50bps in January, the uber-dove said given policy moves thus far, the need for him to dissent and vote for 50bps again has become a bit less, and he needs to see the data before making a decision. The Trump appointee added the Fed can get to a point of ‘micro managing’ the policy rate when they get closer to neutral, but they are not there yet. On data, Miran remarked there were some anomalies in the inflation metrics from the shutdown, and the data suggests the Fed should be moving in a dovish direction. Re. the neutral rate, Miran said it has shifted lower, policy needs to reflect this, and it is important that the policy rate continues to be adjusted down, as if not, the risk of recession increases. Lastly, he is unsure if he will stay on at the Fed but noted if no one is confirmed for his seat by end-January, will assume he is staying on. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed higher by 2.65% and 2.3% respectively.
To mark my 3300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 90 points yesterday is now ahead by 2599 points for December after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.64% higher at a price of 6878.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 227 points higher for a 0.47% gain at a price of 48,362.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.46% higher at a price of 25,461.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.13% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.02% higher at a price of 50,412.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.42% lower.
The Euro closed 0.35% higher at $1.1750.
The British Pound closed 0.59% higher at $1.3459.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.49% closing at $156.97
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points higher at 4.54%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.90%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.17%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.65% higher at $58.02 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.29% higher at $4437.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of the German Import Price Index which rose 0.5% versus +0.2% expected. Next, we have U.S. ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm followed by Building Permits, PCE, GDP and Durable Goods Orders at 1.30 pm. This is followed by Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production at 2.15 pm. At 3.00 pm we have the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Finally, we have a Five-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The ‘’MAG 7’’ which are the largest stocks in the S&P have ben lagging the broader market during the rebound off the November 21 low. That shows that big money is exiting on rallies. These seven stocks make up 36% of Market Cap of the S&P 500 Index. These stocks have led the rally for most of this year. Therefore, the weakness in the Mag 7 is bearish for an intermediate term. The big smart money is more interested in selling their holdings than in buying new ones. In my opinion this is an early warning sign for early 2026. The bullishness among analysts on TV is off the charts bullish. It is important to remember that just about all market tops occur at the peak of bullish sentiment. Unfortunately, that is when most retail investors get the most courage and buy, often using leverage. Why is big bullish sentiment actually bearish? Because that means all the ‘’sideline money’’ has gone into the market and there is virtually no investible cash remaining. Then, when there is one unexpected negative announcement, sellers find out there are no buyers for what they want to sell. This is where the selling avalanche starts, into a vacuum resulting in huge down gaps on the charts. Listening to financial TV last week, there is not a bear to be found. In my opinion this suggests that 2026 is being set up for the ‘BIG SELL’. Not one analyst mentions that tomorrow’s reality is already built into today’s prices. I am still flat the S&P looking for a further move higher to get short. Today, my sell range will be from 6910/6940 with no stop or T/P level if triggered. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still short the Euro at an average rate of 1.1735 with the same 1.1835 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 1.1720. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar at an average rate of 98.80. Today I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 99.10 while also leaving my 97.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. Despite the fact that 40% of the 2000 stocks in the Russell 2000 Index have no earnings the Russell rose 1.25% yesterday to close near all-time highs. The Russell has short-term resistance from 2600/2660 where I will be a seller with a 2715 ‘Closing Stop’. I no longer want to be long the Russell at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2530.
FTSE 100
I am still flat as the FTSE traded lower on Monday, never coming close to my sell range. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 9940/10010 with the same 10085 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9880.
Dow Rolling Contract
After the Dow rallied to my initial 48450 sell level the market had a small sell-off to my revised 48360 T/P level and I am still flat. The Dow has further resistance from 48700/49000 where I will again be a seller with a 49305 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 48350. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat. Given the fact that we are in the Santa rally window, my only interest in selling the NDX is on a further rally 25650/25850 with the same 26005 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25490.
December BUND
I am still long the Bund at an average rate of 126.95 with the same 127.40 T/P level. I will leave my 125.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Both Gold and Silver jumped to new record highs on Monday on the back of marginally higher Fed-rate-cut bets and heightened geo-political tensions relating to both Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine. Copper has also climbed 1% to a new all-time high as its tests $12000 per ton having risen 40% so far this year. I am still flat Gold and I am going to stay flat over the holidays as I have no edge at these price levels. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
In recent weeks, Silver has been engaged in what can be described as an accelerating, virtually parabolic rally. To put that into perspective, it gained 83% from its early-April low to its October 16 high. It followed that up with a 38% rally from its October 27 low to yesterday’s high of 69.45. The last consolidation for Silver occurred during October/November with a high of $54.49 per ounce, and a low of $45.55. If the breakouts from the two prior consolidations are any guide, we should expect a test of this range in the weeks ahead. Overnight, Silver made another new all-time high at $70. This move higher saw my 69.80 sell level triggered. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 68.40. I will add to this trade at 71.30 while leaving my 72.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of these levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please note: My next Daily Commentary will be on Monday January 5 2026. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are triggered over the next 10 days will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members. I would like to wish you all a Happy Christmas and prosperous new year. Finally, thank you for your continued support over the past year.
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