U.S. Indexes saw gains in risk-on trade amid very light newsflow to start the week amid the Fed blackout and lack of US data given the Government shutdown. On which, White House Economic adviser Hassett thinks the shutdown is likely to end sometime this week, but did not give any reason why, and added if the shutdown does not end, the White House is to look at stronger measures. While headline action was sparse, US President Trump comments largely echoed recent remarks, noting if a deal is not made with China, they will face 100% tariffs (existing tariffs + 100% additional tariff threat). He said that he wants the US and China to thrive together and stressed he will be meeting Chinese President Xi in South Korea, and thinks they will end up with a strong trade deal. Sectors, ex-Consumer Staples, closed in the green with Communication Services, Industrials, and Technology leading the gains, with the latter buoyed by a trifecta of positive Apple (AAPL) newsflow . In FX, the Dollar eked out mild gains with Antipodeans profiting off of risk-on sentiment, while the Chinese Yuan was boosted overnight after better-than-expected Q3 GDP Q/Q. The crude complex saw choppy trade as focus continued to reside on geopolitics, with the Israel/Hamas ceasefire just about maintained, despite reports over the weekend that Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement, which Israel then responded to, before resuming the ceasefire thereafter. Meanwhile, Trump continues to try and sort a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire. T-Notes saw mild gains in quiet trade, while spot gold printed another All-Time-High.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 4845 points for October after closing September with a gain of 3774 points after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.07% higher at a price of 6735.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 515 points higher for a 1.12% gain at a price of 46,706.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.31% higher at a price of 25,141.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.05% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.1% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 3.37% higher at a price of 49,185.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.19% higher.
The Euro closed 0.12% lower at $1.1639.
The British Pound closed 0.12% lower at $1.3402.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.03% closing at $150.62
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points lower at 4.51%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.58%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 3.98%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.03% lower at $57.52 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.21% higher at $4353.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing at 7.00 am followed by a speech from ECB Member Lane at 8.00 am and a speech from Bank of England Governor Bailey at 11.30 am. Next, we have Canadian CPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have the TICS Capital Flow at 10.0 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 gapped higher yesterday following Friday’s close, and as last week showed, these types of moves tend to be unstable. It is not unusual to see the Index give back the day’s gains fairly quickly, as happened twice last week. Additionally, the Index reached the 100% extension of the rally from low to high on Thursday and Friday, making this as good a place as any for a potential pullback. VIX options expiration is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon, and currently, the ‘’put wall’’ appears to be around 18 – just above Monday’s close following a 12% fall yesterday. That likely suggests the VIX is not expected to decline much further from Monday’s close. Additionally, realised volatility rose Monday across the board, and as long as the S&P continues to move by more than 0.8%, then 21-day realised volatility will rise and keep implied volatility elevated. However, Monday’s rally saw the S&P close over its 20 Day Moving Average (6660) for the first time in a week. The spreads between the dispersion index and the 3-month implied correlation index have returned to their pre–October 10 sell-off levels. Whatever progress has been made has now been undone, leaving the market back at some overly stretched metrics. This will need to unwind eventually, but it seems market participants are determined to keep pushing this trade until the Big Four report earnings next week. Monday’s spike higher saw the S&P traded the whole of my sell range for a now 6719 average short position. I will leave my 6741 tight ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 6702. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still short the S&P at 1.1675 with the same 1.1620 T/P level. I will add to this position at 1.1735 while leaving my 1.1795 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: I am still long the Dollar at 98.70 with the same 99.25 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 98.00 while leaving my 97.25 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Russell 2000
The Russell rallied to my sell range for a now 2495 short position. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 2555 while leaving my 2605 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 2450. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
I am still flat. Today, I will raise my sell level to 9490/9560 with a higher 9615 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9430.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow gapped higher on Sunday night on the open and was bid for all of Monday’s session as the market closed within 2% of all-time highs. I am still flat. Yesterday’s move higher saw the 20 Day Moving Average recaptured (46219) and this level will offer strong support on any future tag. Today, I will move my buy level higher to 46200/46450 with a higher 45995 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46720. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX never came close to Monday’s buy range, and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 24760/24920 with a higher 24595 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 25090.
December BUND
The Bund traded in a narrow range on Monday, and I am still flat. I will now raise my T/P level to 129.00/129.80 with a higher 128.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 130.40.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still short at an average price of 4059 with no stop. Today, I will now raise my exit level to a loss at 4150 and reassess if triggered. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today I will leave my 48.80/49.80 buy level unchanged with the same 47.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 51.30.
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