US equity futures were bid with outperformance in the Russell 200 while the S&P, NDX and Dow Futures all saw gains of 0.4%. T-Note futures were also bid with morning weakness pared after reports in the Wall Street Journal said US President Trump is to avoid day-one tariff policies, which ultimately was confirmed and largely dictated trade for the rest of the session. The announcement saw a typical dovish reaction with upside in T-Note futures and stocks while the Dollar plummeted, supporting the Euro, Antipodes, and the Canadian Dollar. Both the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen were bid – but to a lesser extent than other G10 currencies due to their haven prospects in a risk on trade. Meanwhile, the Euro was already buoyed following hawkish ECB commentary while the JPY had support after more reports, this time from WSJ, suggesting a Bank of Japan rate hike is likely on Friday. In response to the lack of tariffs, crude prices sold off while Trump echoed his drill baby, drill agenda he will fill strategic reserves again. Elsewhere, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is now in place, and reports suggest it is going smoothly so far although there are still weather related concerns in the US given the cold weather. Gold prices saw slight gains, primarily propped up by dollar weakness. Crypto prices sold off with Trump failing to announce Crypto as a matter of national priority despite reporting suggesting so beforehand. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.27% while Gold was basically flat.
To mark my 3125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 295 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1515 points for January after closing December with a gain of 1997 points after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1% higher at a price of 5996.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 334 points higher for a 0.78% gain at a price of 43,487.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.66% higher at a price of 21,441.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.05% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.17% higher at a price of 38,902.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 1.16% lower.
The Euro closed 1.37% higher at $1.0411.
The British Pound closed 1.31% higher at $1.2323.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.41% closing at $155.64.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower 2.52%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 4.65%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 4.63%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.27% lower at $76.89 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% higher at $2705 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Unemployment including the well watched Average Earnings Rate at 7.00 am. Next, we have German and Euro-Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment at 10.00 am. The only other data of note is Canadian CPI which will be released at 1.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my sell range on the ”no tariff” announcement. This move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a 6034 average short position before subsequently selling off to my revised 6012 T/P level and I am now flat. If Treasury Secretary Yellen had been more responsible when she had the chance to re-finance U.S. debt when Interest Rates were 1% (which in my opinion was criminally stupid) as she could have issued 30-Year Treasury Notes, America would not have the debt problem that they are now facing. There are several reasons the U.S. will face mounting inflationary pressure in 2025, largely attributable to the Republican Victory in November’s election. This is one of the main reasons why I will continue to be a seller of rallies especially as President Trump takes office at the highest valuations ever. The S&P is trading at 6030 as I go to press. We now have almost a 100 Handle Gap from last Thursday’s 5937 Chicago close which is insane. I will be a small seller from 6035/6055 with a higher 6071 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6022. I will be a buyer of the S&P on any initial close of the 5937 gap where my buy level will be from 5937/5952 with a 5919 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5968.
EUR/USD
Frustrating as the Euro just missed my 1.0270 buy level with a 1.0280 low print, before subsequently rallying 130 points into the New York close. This rally was long overdue given how oversold the Euro is after falling over 1200 points since September. The Euro has short-term support from 1.0280/1.0350. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 102.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
The Dollar came close to Thursday’s sell range but missed and I am still flat. This morning, the Dollar is trading over 120 points lower at 108.10. I will now lower my sell level to 108.60/109.30 with a wider 110.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 108.10. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Russell 2000
No Change: I have now replaced the DAX temporarily with the Small Cap Russell 2000. This Index of small stocks has been particularly weak after falling 11% in December. The ticker code is $IWM and the Index closed at a price of 2254 on Friday after making a new all-time high in late November at a price of 2450. Given the Index is trading with a 2000 Handle, in points terms it will be less volatile than the DAX. This will be an interesting Index to trade as over 40% of the companies in the Russell 2000 are unprofitable. If the U.S. economy starts to weaken, bankruptcies will surge which will in turn hit Small Companies hard. The Russell has support at its 200 Day Moving Average (2140) and resistance at its 50-Day MA (2300). This range should contain the Index until the market either breaks higher or lower over the coming days. Today, I will be a buyer of the Russell from 2150/2210 with a 2085 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2270.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market continues to trade well outside the top of its Daily Bollinger Band. We have resistance from 8560/8630 where I will continue to be be a small seller with the same 8705 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 8510.
Dow Rolling Contract
Although the Cash Dow was closed yesterday, the market surged in the ‘’Gray’’ trading session after it was reported in the Wall Street Journal that President Trump would not introduce tariffs on day one. This move higher saw the Dow hit my 43660 sell level. I will add to this position on any further move higher to 43860 while raising my T/P level to 43510. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market rallied to my 21600 sell level before selling off to my revised 21525 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The NDX has further resistance from 21670/21830 where I will again be a seller with a higher 21955 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given the number of ‘’Open Gaps’’ below, I have no interest in being a buyer of the NDX at this time.
March BUND
I am still flat as the Bund traded in a narrow range yesterday. The Bund is still oversold despite Wednesday’s rally. We have short-term support below from 130.40/131.20. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip to this area with the same 129.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 131.90
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat as I refuse to chase the market higher. Gold has support from 2635/2653. I will leave my buy level unchanged to this area with the same 2619 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2666
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at an average rate of 30.40 with the same 31.00 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 29.60 while leaving my 28.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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