U.S. Equity saw further gains to start the week, with the NASDAQ 100 (+1.3%) outperforming and buoyed by gains in Nvidia (+4.4%) in a day of very sparse newsflow and little-to-no data. Sectors are exclusively in the green, with large-cap Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary sitting a top of the pile, while Consumer Staples and Energy are the respective laggards, albeit still firmer. The latter is weighed on by weakness in the crude complex amid continued Gaza ceasefire talks and weak Chinese economy weighing on demand. The Dollar Index was lower and to the benefit of G10 peers, with Antipodeans and the Japanese Yen outperforming, albeit on no currency specific newsflow, just the wider Dollar weakness. Treasuries were mildly firmer to start the week, albeit in a choppy session, as a slew of corporate issuance initially weighed before later rebounding. On the Fed footing, Kashkari (2026 Voter) said debate about potentially cutting rates in September is an appropriate one to have, and in his view, the balance of risks has shifted more towards labour market and away from inflation sided of our dual mandate, which is very in fitting with the overall Fed message at the moment. For the record, Waller did not comment on the economy or monetary policy. Looking ahead, participants await FOMC Minutes (Wed), but most will be awaiting Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole on Friday at 3.00 pm. Fed Member Goolsbee said he has concerns for 2024, “we have crosscurrents” and has concerns that the Fed set this level of rates over a year ago and inflation and the labour market are cooling faster than expected. The Chicago Fed President thinks the Fed should take a step back and think about that. Kashkari (2026 Voter), in a Wall Street Journal interview, said the debate about potentially cutting rates in September is an appropriate one to have, and in his view, the balance of risks has shifted more towards labour market and away from inflation sided of our dual mandate.
To mark my 3050th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 365 points yesterday and is now down by 2073 points for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.97% higher at a price of 5608.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 236 points higher for a 0.58% gain at a price of 40,896.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.32% higher at a price of 19,766.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.61% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.77% lower at a price of 37,388.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.54% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.1082.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 1.2989.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.6% closing at $146.64.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher 2.25%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 3.92%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 3.87%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.97% lower at $74.97 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.13% lower at $2504 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German PPI Index at 7.00 am. This is followed by Euro-Zone CPI and Construction Output at 10.00 am. Next, we have Canadian CPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Bostic and Barr at 6.35 pm and 6.45 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Wrong! Just like the NDX, the S&P has now closed higher for eight consecutive trading sessions. While Monday’s 1% fall in the VIX saw this key signal close at its lowest level since July 23. Seasonal biases are negative for stocks into September and positive for the VIX until mid-October but so far this has not mattered. The S&P is now within touching distance of its 5669 all-time high. The S&P has now added $3 trillion Market Cap in the last two weeks. I am staggered how the value of stocks can move by this amount in 10 trading sessions. What happened with the GFC Crash in 2007 will not be allowed to happen again as the authorities will intervene to make sure markets never crash. They will every time we get a scare, and the entire market construct knows this, hence dips especially the sudden surprising ones as the one form August 5, are bought so frantically. It seems like the only shorts in the market are from us. In July we hit 200.9% Market Cap to GDP, the August drop got us to 175% in a hurry, but the rip higher has got us back to 196%. These levels are not sustainable, and it is why Buffet saw so much of his Equity Holdings over the past six months. I suppose the only way this will work for a proper cleansing is if one day interventions fail to work and something breaks that cannot be fixed by QE, rate cuts and jawboning. Looking at charts the only chance bears have is that the July high for the S&P pinged multi-decade trend lines. I just cannot be a buyer against this background as there is no precedence for these types of insane moves. The U.S. Treasury is running a $2.2 trillion deficit this year which is 6.7% of GDP. This is also not sustainable. Yesterday the S&P traded the whole of my sell range again for a 5580 average short position before stopping out again at 5607 and I am now flat. The S&P has resistance from 5618/5638 where I will again be a seller with a higher 5675 ‘’Closing Stop’’ which will be a new all-time high if executed. I will have no T/P level on this position.
EUR/USD
The Euro was strong yesterday, hitting my 1.1080 sell level. I am still short with a higher 1.1030 T/P level. I will add to this position at 1.1150 while leaving my 1.1205 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
Dollar Index
Wrong! I was finally stopped out of my 103.30 long position at 102.35 and I am now flat. As I am now long the Euro I will stay flat the Dollar. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
No Change: I am going to stay flat the DAX as I have no edge in this market at the moment. August has been the toughest month for my Platinum Service since I started writing my Daily Commentary over 11 years ago in February 2013. I will stay flat the DAX until I feel my edge has returned. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
No Change: The FTSE continues to consolidate the gains from the end of last week and I am still flat. This morning the FTSE is trading slightly higher at 8330. I will not chase the FTSE higher as I continue to look to buy the market on any dip lower to 8130/8210 with the same 8065 tight ‘Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow with the market trading less than 1% from all-time highs. This is hard to fathom given the price action over the past six weeks, but these are the markets we have. Today, I will now raise my Dow sell level to 41050/41300 with a higher 41505 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 40780. Given how extended the Dow is trading I no longer want to be a buyer of the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX has now closed higher for 8 consecutive trading sessions and completely filled the gap at 19754 from the close on July 23. Another potential target exists at 19,994 from July 10. The consecutive closing streak indicates the rally is stretched short-term. This move higher has me short at 19680. I will add to this trade at 19840 while leaving my 20005 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will have no T/P level on this position for now.
September BUND
No Change: I am still flat the Bund as the market traded in a narrow range yesterday. The Bund has support below from 133.00/133.70 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 132.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Bund has resistance from 135.50/136.20 where I will still be a seller with the same 136.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 134.30. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 134.95.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold hit a low at 2885 yesterday morning before rallying $20 off this low into the New York close. Today I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 2450/2465 with the same 2437 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2484.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver hit a low at 28.71 before attracting buyers to close at 29.43 in New York and I am still flat. Silver has support 27.90/28.60 where I will again be a buyer with a wider 26.29 ‘’Closing Stop’’ which is just below last week’s low print. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 29.50.
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