U.S. Indices saw heavy losses on Monday, with all sectors, aside from Communications and Utilities, in the red. There was no one specific catalyst for the risk-off trade to start the week, just further concerns regarding elevated valuations in the AI space, while the S&P 500 slipped below 6,700 and closed beneath its 50-Day Moving Average of 6,707. Back to sectors, the Communications sector was boosted by Alphabet (GOOGL) being one of the clear gainers and supported after Berkshire Hathaway built a stake in the Co., as its latest 13-F declared. The Dollar was bought in a risk-averse environment, to the detriment of all G10 peers, with both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperforming. On data, NY Fed Manufacturing was solid, while the influential governor Waller toed a usual dovish tone, as he reiterated his support for a December rate cut (25bps) and does not see any factors that would cause acceleration in inflation. Jefferson reiterated the fed needs to proceed slowly as monetary policy approaches the neutral rate. Treasuries were supported and saw slight upside, but gains were capped on Amazon’s bond sale, whereby the behemoth upsized its USD 12 billion offering to USD 15 billion, in its first US bond sale since 2022. The crude complex traded in very narrow ranges on Monday, but settled marginally lower in light headline risk, although did see strength in the EZ morning in reports that Israeli warplanes targeted areas in southern Lebanon. Gold and Bitcoin were also pressured amid the equity weakness, with Bitcoin hitting its lowest level in six months and Gold testing USD 4,000/oz. While the scheduled events on Monday were light, it heats up later this week with particular focus on FOMC Minutes, NVIDIA earnings (Wed), and Sept. US jobs report (Thurs). The New York Fed saw a solid report with activity rising, employment remaining in expansionary territory, while the pace of price increases slowed. The November Empire State Manufacturing survey saw current business conditions rise to +18.7 from 10.7 in October, well above the 5.8 forecast. The report noted that new orders and shipments increased significantly. New orders rose to 15.9 from 3.7. Delivery times lengthened modestly, and supply availability worsened somewhat. Inventories expanded. Labour market indicators improved, pointing to a small increase in employment and a longer average workweek. The employment index rose to 6.6 from 6.2. The pace of both input price increases and selling price increases slowed slightly but remained elevated. Prices paid slowed to 49 from 52.4, while prices received fell to 24 from 27.2. Capital spending plans grew. Firms expect conditions to improve in the months ahead, though firms were not as optimistic as last month. Looking ahead, prices paid and received both slowed, while employment improved. The Fed Vice Chair (Jefferson) largely repeated comments he made in early November. The Vice Chair said the Fed needs to proceed slowly as monetary policy approaches the neutral rate, and it is still not clear how much government data will be available for the next meeting. He echoed that current Fed policy rate is still “somewhat restrictive”, and the balance of risks has shifted in recent months, with increased potential downside to employment. Looking ahead, and to next week, Jefferson looks forward to reviewing the Biege Book. Fed Governor Waller made the case for continuing rate cuts and voiced support for a 25bps cut in December, saying it would offer additional labour market insurance amid signs the economy is softening. Warned that restrictive policy may be weighing on activity, with the labour market weak and near stall speed. Argued that underlying inflation is close to 2%, expectations remain well anchored, and tariffs are merely a one-time price level shock. Said he sees no factors likely to accelerate inflation and expects that no upcoming data, including the jobs report, would change his view that another cut is warranted. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed lower by 0.6% and 1% respectively.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 203 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3192 points for November, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.92% lower at a price of 6672.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 557 points lower for a 1.18% loss at a price of 46,590.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.83% lower at a price of 24,799.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.54% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.10% lower at a price of 50,323.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.26% higher.
The Euro closed 0.25% lower at $1.1590.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at $1.3156.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.44% closing at $155.22
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points lower at 4.54%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.71%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.13%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.62% lower at $59.73 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.96% lower at $4043.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data pf note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 1.15 pm we have the ADP Employment Change and the Import/Export Price Index at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation at 2.15 pm, followed by Durable Goods Orders and the NAHB Housing Market Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Barr and Barkin at 3.30 pm and 4.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Pretty brutal shake and bake on Monday, driving the S&P 140 Handles lower from the early Monday morning high of 6780. It is hard to say if yesterday’s 6638 low print is an important print but with fear building everywhere as shown by the Fear & Greed Index closing at 14 I certainly would not want to be short at these levels. Bitcoin got hit hard again on Monday and is now 30% below all-time highs. Maybe we need Bitcoin to rally to save the rest of the market from tanking further. TBD. The week obviously far from over and fwiw we remain in the larger chop range, now we need to see if sellers can force new lows or if they get trapped again. Monday’s sell-off saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 6687 average long position. I will leave my 6659 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 6712. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro again traded in a narrow range. Today, I will again be a seller from 1.1670/1.1740 with the same 1.1805 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1400/1.1480 with the same 1.1335 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1540. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1610.
Dollar Index
The Dollar rallied to my 99.50 T/P level on my latest 99.00 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further weakness to 98.00/98.80 with a lower 97.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 99.40.
Russell 2000
The Russell hit my second buy level at 2340 for a now 2365 average long position. I will leave my 2295 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 2410. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
I am still flat the FTSE as the market traded in a narrow range on Monday. The FTSE has short-term support from 9500/9580 where I will be a small buyer with a 9435 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 9640.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change: As we know timing is everything in markets. Having been stopped out of my latest short position on Wednesday at 48205 the Dow subsequently fell 1500 points before having a small rally off Friday’s lows into the close and I am still flat. I am going to stay flat the Dow as I want to see how the market reacts today given the fact that Bitcoin is under pressure as I go to post. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 24680-buy level before rallying to my revised 24833 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer of the NDX on any further move lower to 24500/24650 with the same 24395 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24900. I no longer want to be short the NDX at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still long the Bund at an average rate of 129.50 with the same 129.80 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will leave my 128.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Gold has support below from 3890/3910 where I will be a strong buyer with a 3869 tight ‘Closing Stop’. I learnt my lesson in trying to short Gold last month and for now I will wait to see if my buy range gets triggered this week. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3948.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 47.50/48.50 with the same 45.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 49.70.
Please Note: I have taken very little time off work this year and I need a break. My next Daily Commentary will be on Monday. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently triggered on Wednesday/Thursday or Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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