Former U.S. President Trump was called the clear winner of the Iowa Republican Caucuses from very early on while Edison Research later announced that Trump has 51.1%, DeSantis has 21.2% and Haley has 19.0% with 95% of estimated Iowa caucus votes in. U.S. Equity Futures were steady on Monday as investors were displeased by hawkish comments from ECB’s Holzmann, who said there may not be any rate cuts this year which pushed European stocks to session lows, while also bracing for more earnings later this week. With cash stock markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day and global liquidity especially thin, markets traded in narrow ranges before selling off overnight on higher Treasury Yields. Treasury cash markets were also closed on Monday, although TSY futures suggested yields are higher by about 6bps to 4.00%; the Bloomberg Dollar Index edged higher following weekend news that a government shutdown had been delayed until March. European Equity Markets fell as economic data from Germany underscored the ugly backdrop for corporate profits ahead of a raft of speeches by policy makers at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 0.5%, trading at session lows and extending a lacklustre start to the year after a 13% rise in 2023. Consumer goods and carmakers led the decline after Germany’s economy dodged a recession, though the latest data showed it contracted for the first time since the pandemic last year. Germany’s 10-year yield rose about five basis points as bonds across the Euro region fell as the ECB’s Holzmann stated their may be no Interest Rate cuts this year. “Yesterday’s data could encourage the ECB to speed up monetary easing but we’re now getting at the stage when bad economic news no longer translates into good news for equity markets,” said Benoit Péloille, chief investment officer at Natixis Wealth Management. In the U.S., market pricing for as many as six quarter-point rate cuts “can be a stretch; bad economic news will start to hurt,” he said. Among individual stock moves in Europe, Dassault Aviation SA slumped after the French aircraft maker reported a decline in 2023 jet orders. Delivery Hero SE and Just Eat Takeaway.com NV dropped after BNP Paribas Exane analysts recommended steering clear of Europe’s food delivery sector. Volvo Car AB extended a decline sparked Friday when it said it’s temporarily halting some production due to shipping delays caused by Red Sea attacks.
To mark my 2925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 81 points on yesterday and is now ahead by 2011 points for January. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.08% higher at a price of 4783.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 118 points lower for a 0.31% loss at a price of 37,592.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.07% higher at a price of 16,832.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.53% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.79% lower at a price of 35,619.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.20% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0955.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2734.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.6% closing at $145.77.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points higher at 2.23%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 3.82%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower 3.94%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.29% lower at $71.74 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.3% higher at $2053.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German December Final CPI which printed 3.7% as expected. Also released this morning was U.K. Employment Change which came in at -24K versus -13K expected. Next, we have Euro-Zone and German ZEW Surveys at 10.00 am. This is followed by Canadian CPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Waller at 4.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P has got hit hard overnight and this morning, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 4758 average long position. I will leave my 4739 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 4767. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
Overnight the Euro has sold off to yesterday’s buy range. I am now long here at 1.0910. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 1.0850 while leaving my 1.0795 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will have a T/P level at 1.0960 on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update form my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar. I will now raise my buy level to 101.60/102.30 with a higher 100.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
The DAX fell 200 points from its morning high, hitting my 16610 initial buy level. We had a small rally to my revised 16644 T/P level, and I am now flat. This morning, the DAX is trading lower at 16500. The DAX has short-term support from 16340/16420 where I will again be a strong buyer with a lower 16285 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Even though the price action for the DAX has been bearish for the past three weeks, I will not chase the market lower.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE continues to trade heavy unable to get any upside momentum. After the FTSE hit my 7580 buy level, we had a small bounce to my revised 7595 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the FTSE is trading lower at 7550. We have strong support from 7440/7510 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a lower 7385 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7565. Given how oversold the FTSE is trading, I still do not want to be short the Market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. We have support from 37000/37250 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 36855 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my sell level to 37950/38200 with a lower 38355 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Yesterday, the NDX traded in a narrow range before selling off overnight to my 16695 buy level. I am still long and I will add to this position on any further move lower to 16545 with a higher 16425 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 16770. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
My Bund plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 135.00 buy level before rallying to my revised 135.31 T/P level and I am still flat. The Bund has further support below from 133.90/134.70 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 133.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Gold never came close to yesterday’s buy range. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 2013/2028 with the same 1999 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short Gold at this time.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I still believe in the bull case for this precious metal. I will continue to hold my 24.40 average long position with no stop or T/P level for now. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
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