Following another volatile trading session U.S. Equity Markets finished the day lower led by the Dow closing with a small loss of 0.49%. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Federal Reserve needs to dial back its economic stimulus more aggressively, because of the recent string of higher inflation readings. Bullard added that he wants the Fed’s tightening to be “front loaded” – meaning he wants the central bank to act fast. This follows his comments from Friday, where he called for 100 basis points of hikes by July. There were also developments on the conflict with Russia and Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly interested in continuing dialogue. He made the statement as part of a televised meeting with cabinet officials. Russian’s Foreign Minister agreed with this statement. These developments boosted markets in the afternoon, as they could indicate that an invasion of Ukraine is not imminent, which lowers geopolitical tensions. Of course, there were still reports that Russia was planning to invade this week. This situation will continue to be closely watched by investors, as Russia controls the majority of energy supply to Europe. In the S&P 500, the declines vastly outnumbered the advances. Energy stocks were the laggard today, likely on profit-taking after the sector’s big run higher lately. On the up- side, consumer discretionary names bucked the broader selling trend, boosted by Amazon (AMZN). Within the S&P 500, nine of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. French government officials said Putin gave no indications he plans to invade Ukraine during a call with French President Emmanuel Macron. Central bank messaging was mixed. European Central Bank (“ECB”) Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said its policy approach will remain flexible as it withdraws stimulus. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said the central bank should not overreact to the recent spike in prices, adding tightening policy too quickly would choke off economic growth. In Asia, The People’s Bank of China pledged to increase financial support for the economy, looking to stabilise property and land prices. The Bank of Japan said it did not see any takers following its offer to buy an unlimited amount of five- to 10-year sovereign bonds at a fixed rate. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol and Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki pledged to work in a more coordinated fashion to fight inflation. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea pledged to work more closely together to promote regional stability while calling for ongoing peace in the Taiwan Strait. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2% higher on supply concerns as investors monitor the ongoing situation with Russia, while Gold jumped 1.72% as continued geopolitical concerns spurred demand for haven assets.
To mark my 2475th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 680 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3415 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.38% lower at a price of 4401.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 171 points lower for a 0.49% loss at a price of 34,566.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.12% higher at a price of 14,270.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.1% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.6%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.23% lower at a price of 27,079.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.1301.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.3522.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1%, closing at $115.40.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.27%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at 1.59%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed six basis points higher at 1.98%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2% higher at $95.30 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.72% higher at $1,873.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Average Earnings and the Unemployment Rate at 7.00 am. Next, we have German CPI at 8.00 am. This is followed at 10.00 am by Euro-Zone Trade Balance, GDP, ZEW Survey and the Employment Change. Finally, we have U.S. PPI and the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index at 1.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The idea of buying the dip in U.S. Indexes again paid large dividends yesterday as all three American hit my buy ranges before rallying to my T/P levels and I am now flat. I bought the S&P at a price of 4368 before hitting my 4388 T/P level. With technical so oversold I will continue to be a buyer of dips without any stop. As I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary ”Wars” tend to be bullish for Equity Markets. Today, I will be an aggressive buyer from 4345/4375 with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4396. Given how oversold my charts are I do not want to be short the S&P at this time, preferring to buy any flush lower.
EUR/USD
No Change. My only interest in selling the Euro is still on a rally higher to 1.1390/1.1450 with the same 1.1505 stop. I do want to be long the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
No Change. Friday’s late rally in the Dollar saw the market hit my 96.05 sell level. I am still short and I will add to this trade at 96.45 with a tight 96.81 stop. I will now raise my T/P level to 95.80 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
The DAX missed my 14800 buy level by 25 points before rallying 250 points into the close and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 14740/14830 with the same wider 14595 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14910.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE traded lower to my 7500 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 7560 T/P level. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. I will now lower my stop to a wider 7395 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked perfectly with the market trading lower to my 34480 buy level before rallying to my 34710 T/P level. The Dow subsequently made a high of 3740 before falling 440 points before turning around and rallying 250 points off its 34300 low print into the close. The Dow has strong support from 34150/34350 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 33895 wider stop. Ahead of this week’s ‘’Event Risk’’ I do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 14100 buy level before rallying to my 14350 T/P level with a rebound high of 14400. The NDX was the strongest of the U.S. Markets yesterday, closing higher by 0.12% after Friday’s drubbing. Today, I will again be an aggressive buyer from 14180/13995 with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14330.
March BUND
No Change. I am still long at 166.26 with the same 166.50 T/P level. The Bund rallied almost 200 points on the equity sell-off so the idea of holding this position with no stop should be rewarded when the Bund opens for trading this morning. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to make new rebound highs and I am still flat. I am still reluctant to chase this market price at these levels. Therefore, my only interest in buying Gold is still on a drop lower to 1805/1820 with a higher 1789 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1831.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 22.70/23.40 with no stop.
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