U.S. Indices were mixed on Monday with the S&P 500. Dow Jones and Russell 2000 paring some of the post NFP downside, although the NASDAQ added to losses in a tech-led sell off, particularly in semiconductors which are being weighed on by Biden export controls and also reports in ‘’The Information’’ that some of Nvidia’s (NVDA) biggest customers are facing new delays in getting its most advanced AI chips up and running in data centres. Meanwhile, the Dow was the clear outperformer due to upside in heavyweight UnitedHealth (UNH), which rallied after the US proposed a 4.3% avg. increase in Medicare Advantage plan payments for 2026. Elsewhere, T-Notes were choppy in quiet trade as attention turns to US inflation data this week (PPI on Tues, CPI on Wed) while Gilts saw further pressure with UK players looking to inflation and GDP data. In FX, the Dollar saw further upside with DXY breaking above 110.00 but failing to hold the level with the Dollar off highs heading into the European Open. Antipodeans outperformed with China announcing more tools to support the Yuan while the Swiss Franc lagged. Elsewhere, Crude prices were bid, particularly front-month contracts with time spreads seeing notable upside, likely on the impact of new sanctions against Russia from the US, which saw dozens of oil tankers anchor in Asia, Russia and the Middle East. The New York Fed survey of consumer inflation expectations were mixed in December. The 1 Year ahead expectations were unchanged at 3%, although the 3 Year ahead forecast rose to 3.0% from 2.6% in November, while the 5 Year forecasts fell to 2.7% from 2.9%. On job security, the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months declined by 1.6% to 11.9%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months also declined by 2.0% to 18.2%, taking both readings to the lowest since January 2024. Meanwhile, the mean perceived probability of finding a job, if one’s current job was lost, declined sharply to 50.2% from 54.1% in November, the lowest reading since April 2021. Looking into the report, December year-ahead expected food prices increased while year-ahead expected gas prices were down to the lowest since September 2022. Elsewhere, Oil surged again on Monday ending the session with a gain of 3% while Gold closed 1% lower.
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 365 points yesterday and is now ahead by 621 points for January after closing December with a gain of 1997 points after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.16% higher at a price of 5836.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 358 points higher for a 0.86% gain at a price of 42,297.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.3% lower at a price of 20,784.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.55% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.9lost% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.05% lower at a price of 39,190.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.22% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.0210.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 1.2170.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.02% closing at $157.75.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher 2.59%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 4.89%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.79%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.06% higher at $78.91 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.15% lower at $2660 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have German and Euro-Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 11.00 am. This is followed by PPI at 1.30 pm and a speech from Fed Member Schmid at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Williams at 3.05 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P is now trading almost 90 Handles higher form yesterday morning’s 5770 low print. At Monday’s low the S&P had given up all of its gains that it had made since the Presidential Election Day which would have been ironic since we are approaching Inauguration Day on Monday. The large movements that we have seen in the first two weeks of January are what I am expecting for 2025 – an emotional market where we see wild swings in both directions fuelled by optimism – which gets a bit too lofty – and then the reality of can actually get done. Monday’s low which occurred a few hours after I posted saw the S&P fall further into oversold territory while the Daily Technical Indicators that I follow got closer to ‘’Extremely Oversold’’ before traders took advantage by adding some long exposure in anticipation of the rubber band snapping back which we did late in the session before the S&P spiked into the close. This rally continued overnight with the S&P hitting my 5850 T/P level on Friday’s 5830 average long position and I am now flat. It is significant that the S&P again closed over its 100 Day Moving Average at 5820. Any test of this area should be met by strong buying ahead of Monday’s inauguration. Therefore, I will be a strong buyer from 5812/5827 with a lower 5798 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5848.
EUR/USD
The Euro has had a nice rally off Monday’s 1.0170 low print, trading at 1.0264 this morning. I am still long at an average rate of 1.0265 with the same 1.0330 T/P level. I will also leave my 1.0115 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still short the Dollar at an average rate of 109.30 with the same 110.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’. This morning the Dollar is trading 0.5% lower at 109.45. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 108.95. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
I am still flat the DAX as the market never came close to yesterday’s sell range. I have no interest in chasing the DAX lower, preferring to leave my 20470/20570 sell level unchanged with the same 20705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 20400.
Cash FTSE
Unfortunately, the FTSE just missed yesterday’s buy range, and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 8140/8210 with a now higher 8055 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8270. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow rallied 600 points of Monday’s low, hitting my 42300 T/P level on Friday’s 42230 average long position and I am now flat. The Dow has support below from 41930/42180 where I will again be a small buyer with a lower 41695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 42440.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 20530-buy level before rallying to my revised 20725 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The NDX has short-term support from 20450/20600 where I will again be a buyer with a higher 20295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 20750. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a small seller from 21150/21300 with a higher 21405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 20040.
March BUND
The T-Bond ETF (TLT) has fallen from 100 last September to just above 85 this morning. It is now quite oversold. It looks like to me that we should see a short-term rally if only to relieve the oversold conditions. Any rally should help the broad stock market to the extent that investors have been spooked by rising long-term rates. I am still long the Bund from last week at an average rate of 131.80 with the same 132.40 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will leave my 130.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold is trading $30 lower from where I marked prices yesterday morning. As I am back long Silver, I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher. Therefore, my only interest in buying Gold is still on a large move lower to 2575/2591 with the same 2559 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2603.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver followed Gold lower yesterday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 30.00 average long position. I will leave my 28.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 30.70. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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