Monday was a quiet session to start the week on account of the Veteran’s Day holiday with no Fed speakers or US data released. The direction of trade, however, was largely a function of the Trump Trade with Republicans looking increasingly likely to take the House, resulting in a red sweep. This saw T-Note futures sell off to fall back beneath 110-00, settling just beneath the level. Meanwhile, the Dollar surged with DXY hitting the highest level since July. The strength in the Dollar and downside in T-Notes saw the Japanese Yen underperform in G10 FX, rising above 153.50 while the Bank of Japan SOO saw a member call for patience when it comes to rate hikes. Precious metals also tumbled with Gold hitting its lowest level since mid-October, while energy prices were hit amid the Dollar strength but also on an apparent easing in geopolitical tensions. Hezbollah, via Al Arabiya, said that there are negotiations to stop the war, while Israel later noted there has been progress on talks and they want a deal within a few weeks based on the “American document”. Attention on Tuesday turns to the NY Fed SCE and several Fed speakers before CPI on Wednesday and Powell on Thursday. Elsewhere, Oil closed 3.28% lower, while a stronger Dollar saw Gold hit hard, closing lower by 2.43% on Monday.
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 308 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1289 points for November having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.10% higher at a price of 6001.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 304 points higher for a 0.64%gain at a price of 44,293.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.05% lower at a price of 21,106.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.13% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.08% higher at a price of 39,533.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.52% higher.
The Euro closed 0.6% lower at $1.0654.
The British Pound closed 0.4% lower at 1.2864.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.75% closing at $153.75.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower 2.33%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 4.42%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.31%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.28% lower at $68.07 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.42% lower at $2620 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German CPI at 7.00 am. At the same time, we will have U.K. Employment Change and Average Earnings. This is followed by German and Euro-Zone ZEW Surveys’ at 10.00 am. Next, we have the U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index at 11.00 am. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Waller, Barkin and Kashkari at 3.00 pm, 3.15 pm and 7.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
I have mentioned a few times about the level of speculation in the market by the retail sector. The Wall Street Journal notes that the percentage of household assets in stocks relative to total financial assets is at an all-time high. Meanwhile, Corporate Bond Spreads have dropped to a 26-year low and are not at the tightest level since 1998. Concurrently, Junk Bond Spreads have dropped to their narrowest spread to U.S. Treasuries in 17 years, since May 2007 when the Financials peaked prior to the punishing bear market of 2007-2009. The 5-week average of Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus is 71.60, matching the level that occurred the week of January 26, 2018, market top. The S&P declined 12% over the next 10 days. Tesla’s shares have risen 69% in a span of just 13 trading days while Bitcoin has surged to over $87,000 since the election. It looks like investors are at or very near peak optimism. Prices will either top coincident with peak optimism or investor optimism will start to fade as prices rise to their final high and then start a long overdue historic bear market. My S&P plan worked well yesterday as the market traded the whole of my sell range for a 6017 average short position. Subsequently the S&P fell 30 Handles before having a small recovery into the Chicago close. This move lower saw my 6004 revised T/P level triggered and I am now flat. With so many ‘’Open Gaps’’ below it is only a matter of time before the market trades lower to fill some of these gaps. The S&P has further resistance from 6016/6036 where I will again be a seller with a higher 6051 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 5988. The S&P has left a number of large gaps below the market. As we know all ‘’Open Gaps’’ eventually get filled. If the S&P decides to fill Tuesday’s gap, I will be an aggressive buyer from 5785/5805 with a tight 5769 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5843.
EUR/USD
The Euro got hit hard yesterday as the Dollar tagged on a further 0.5%. This move lower saw my second buy level at 1.0630 triggered for a now 1.0665 average long position. I will leave my ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged at 1.0575 while lowering my T/P level to 1.0725. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The 0.5% rally in the Dollar on Monday saw the Dollar hit my sell range for a now 105.50 short position. I will now look to add to this position on any further move higher to 106.20 with a now higher 106.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will raise my T/P level to 105.05. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
Nothing matters as the DAX surged yesterday despite the breakdown of the German Coalition Government last week. This move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a 19440 average short position. As I am still short the American Indexes, I exited this position at my revised 19410 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The DAX has further resistance from 19560/19660 where I will again be a seller with a higher 19805 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
My latest 8082 average long FTSE position worked well as the market rallied to my 8130 T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE is severely oversold in contrast to the overbought American Indexes which is hard to fathom. The FTSE has support from 8010/8090 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 7945 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8155
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still short and wrong with my Dow position for now. However, given how overbought this market is trading I will continue to hold this position as long as I can manage to pick up points elsewhere. Friday’s late surge saw the Dow hit my next sell level at 43900 for a now large 43600 average short position. I am still short with no stop for now. I will have a T/P level at 43450 on this position. If any of the above levels ort my view changes will see me return with an updated email for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still short the NDX from last week at an average rate of 21000 with the same 21305 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will leave my 20970 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
It taken a while but finally the Bund rallied to my 132.40 T/P level on my 132.10 average long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer of the Bund on any further dip lower to 131.00/131.70 with a lower 130.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
A much stronger Dollar finally weighed on Gold as the marked closed in New York last night with a loss of 2.43%. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 2617 average long position. As I go to press Gold is trading at 2624. Given how long I am of Silver I have now exited my long Gold position here at 2624 and I am now flat. I will look to buy Gold again from 2590/2605 with a lower 2579 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at an average rate of 32.30 with the same 29.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 32.70. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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