Equity Markets were predominantly higher on Monday with stocks catching a bid from the open and grinding higher until the close with outperformance in the NASDAQ. The upside came despite notable weakness in the heavyweight stocks but with notable upside in the Semiconductor space aside from Nvidia (NVDA). On data, the latest New York Fed Consumer Inflation expectations saw the volatile 1-year ahead forecasts ease while the 3 and 5-year forecasts were left unchanged. In FX, the Japanese Yen saw notable selling after the rally last week on dovish Bloomberg Bank of Japan sources which downplayed the idea of an end to NIRP at the December meeting. The U.S. Dollar was ultimately little changed with earlier upside reversing as yields sold off in the wake of the 3 and 10-year auctions ahead of 30-year supply on Tuesday. Oil prices were choppy but ultimately settled flat as markets still digest the latest OPEC+ production cuts while Natural Gas tumbled on more mild weather forecasts. It was very much calm before the storm on Monday ahead of a plethora of risk events later in the week, with eyes turning to US CPI, US 30-year auction, FOMC, ECB, SNB and Bank of England. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.35% higher while Gold got hit again, closing lower by 1.1%.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 140 points yesterday and is now ahead by 512 points for December after ending November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.39% higher at a price of 4622.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 157 points higher for a 0.43% gain at a price of 36,404.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.85% higher at a price of 16,221.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.30% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.2% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.16% higher at a price of 32,843.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.07% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0758.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2556.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.8% closing at $146.18.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.27%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points higher at 4.08%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher 4.26%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.35% higher at $71.48 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.1% lower at $1980.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. November Payrolls Change which fell 12K versus +33K last month. Next, we have the German and Euro-Zone ZEW Survey at 10.00 am, followed by the NFIB Business Optimism Index at 11.00 am. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. CPI. Finally, we have a 30 Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and the Monthly Budget at 7.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Volatility for the S&P has now hit its lowest level in four years as shown by the VIX which has now closed with a 12 Handle for the last two weeks. The S&P has now closed higher for six consecutive weeks. This is a rare occurrence and last occurred in 2019. I can make a case that despite the sell-off that we saw in 2022, bulls have been in control as every key Moving Average has been defended. However, short-term we are as overbought as I have ever seen in my 25 Years of trading the S&P. For one, the $BPSPX has now parked itself with an 80 handle for the last number of weeks. That is massively overbought breadth where there is zero history of it staying at these elevated levels. The flip in CTA positioning from record shorts in Mid-October to record longs in six weeks is also unprecedented but probably no surprise given the rapid loosening of financial conditions. Bank Reserves increased by a further $78 Billion last week for a grand total of $368B added since the beginning of October with a quarter trillion dollars added since the October lows. QT and rate hikes have given the illusion of tightening whereas the reality is QE is still happening as has been the case since 2009. The bottom line is that the Chicago National Financial Conditions Index is now as loose as it was when the Fed started raising interest rates. Any major threat of a breakdown in the S&P over the past 15 years has been met by liquidity been added to the system. I watched a video interview with Jim Rogers yesterday on U Tube. Well worth spending 25 minutes of your time for his take on the markets and especially the insane debt levels. There is no doubt that this scenario will end badly, the question is the ‘’WHEN’’. Given the backdrop I will continue to be a seller of rallies. I am now short the S&P at an average rate of 4619 with the same 4641 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 4605. It is interesting that despite yesterdays across the board gains that the McClellan Oscillator closed lower at +84. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long the Euro from last Tuesday at an average rate of 1.0830 with the same 1.0875 T/P level. I will leave my 1.0735 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market traded in a narrow range over the past few days. This morning, the Dollar is trading higher at 104.15. We have strong resistance from 104.50/105.10 where I will be a seller with the same 105.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will still be a buyer on any dip lower to 102.50/103.20 with the same 101.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
The DAX closed at yet another new all-time high. This move higher comes against one of the most overbought RSI readings in many years. Last night the 14-Day RSI closed at 84. There have only been two occasions when the RSI was higher. In 2000 and 2018. Perhaps we will see further new highs, but also potentially bad news or at least dip of size coming. Today, I will again be a seller from 16870/17000 with a wider 17115 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 16710.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market again traded in a narrow range. I will not chase the market lower, keeping my 7590/7660 sell level unchanged with the same 7715 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
After the Dow hit my 36370-sell level we saw a small 90 sell-off. As I wanted to bank some points for yesterday’s dull session, I covered this short position at my revised 36310 T/P level, and I am now flat. The 14 Day RSI closed at 78.03 last night. The RSI has a reading over 70 for the past two weeks which is not normal or healthy. Given how overextended the Dow is, I will continue to be a seller of rallies. The Dow has further resistance from 36490/33740. I will be a strong seller in this area with a higher 36905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Thankfully we had no sell level in the NDX yesterday as the market led yesterday’s across the board rally, closing higher by 0.85%. The NDX has now closed at new highs for the year, despite the short-term technical signals witnessing a number of negative divergences. Yesterday’s move higher sees the NDX pressing against its Upper Bollinger Band. The NDX has resistance from 16290/16440 where I will again be a seller with a higher 16555 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be long the NDX at this time.
December BUND
No Change. The Bund traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 135.20/135.90 with the same 136.31 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold has now fallen a huge $180 off last Monday’s 2151 spike high. Yesterday’s move lower saw Gold hit my 1979 buy level. Overnight, Gold rallied to my 1987 revised T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1960/1975 with a lower 1949 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. Silver ended last week with a 2% fall. I am still long at an average rate of 24.40 with the same 25.05 T/P level. Given how bullish I am on Silver, I will now cancel any stop on this position. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Mem
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