U.S. Indices closed substantially lower on Monday led by the 3.8% fall in the NASDAQ 100 and 2.7% fall in both the S&P 500 and RUSSELL 2000. This move lower wiped out Friday’s late rally and hitting six-month lows on concerns over the US economy, present/incoming US tariffs and retaliatory tariffs from others. For example: China’s latest retaliatory tariffs (effective Monday) weighed. Sectors ex-Utilities & Energy were in the red, with all of the MAG-7 losing ground. As such, Technology, Discretionary, and Communications were hit the hardest. For Discretionary, pressure came largely by way of Tesla (TSLA) having its worst day since 2020 (-15%) after China vehicle exports tanked in February. In FX, the Dollar caught relief from recent heavy selling, prevailing over the Canadian Dollar amid intensifying relations between Canada and the US, given that the incoming Prime Minister Carney showed no immediate plan of removing their tariffs on the US. Meanwhile, the Euro was weighed on by a Greens Party official recommending the party’s lawmakers to not vote for the spending plan bill, contending it must show investment going towards climate and the country. On Crude, prices were lower by over USD 1/bbl with energy/geopolitical updates taking the backfoot as the subdued demand picture took the reins. That said, the US Energy Secretary said he is looking at working with Congress on cancelling mandate sales from oil reserve. In geopolitics, via AFP, Kyiv will propose a truce in the air and sea during talks with Washington in Riyadh. Elsewhere, Treasuries were firmer across the curve, with the 10-year yield having its biggest down day since September, -10bps, as risk-off trade lifted the space higher. Data in the US was contained to the New York Fed SCE, which saw the 1-year ahead exp. inflation rise to 3.1% (prev. 3.0% in Jan) and consumers expected probability of missing debt payments at its highest level since April 2020. For the week ahead, main events take off on Wednesday, with US tariffs on aluminum and steel to go into effect and the release of February CPI, ahead of PPI on Thursday and University of Michigan Consumer Survey on Friday. In February’s New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, it saw 1 year ahead inflation expectations tick slightly higher to 3.1% (prev. 3% in Jan), while both the 3 year and 5 year ahead expected inflation were both unchanged at 3%. Elsewhere within the report, consumers’ year-ahead expectations about their households’ financial situations deteriorated considerably in February. The share of households expecting a worse financial situation one year from now rose to 27.4%, its highest level since November 2023. Expected home price climbed 3.3% (prev. 3.2% in Jan), and the mean unemployment expectations, or the mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now, jumped up by 5.4ppt to 39.4%, its highest reading since Sept. 2023. Lastly, the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.3 ppt to 14.6%, its highest level since April 2020. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1.67% while Gold ended Monday’s session with a loss of
To mark my 3150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 1745 points yesterday and is now down by 1906 points for March after closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Recent Comments