U.S. Equity Markets closed higher on Monday despite risk-off in Europe following the EU Parliamentary elections over the weekend which saw the Far-Right parties make notable gains, with French President Macron ultimately calling a snap election. Equities clawed back earlier losses once cash trade got underway in quiet trade with attention turning to the Apple (AAPL) WWDC event, which ultimately confirmed its partnership with OpenAI, but only briefly supported AAPL stock which sold off over 2% on Monday. T-notes bear steepened with weakness following on from JGB and EGB pressure overnight and in the European morning but lows in T-notes were seen in the wake of the weak 3 Year Auction before paring slightly into settlement. There was little reaction to the mixed NY Fed Survey of Consumer Inflation expectations, which saw the 1 Year ease, 3 Year unchanged, and 5 Year rise. Crude prices were bid throughout the session on geopolitics and optimism around Summer fuel demand while Gold and Silver attempted to recover some of the steep losses incurred on Friday in the wake of the hot NFP. Attention now turns to the US CPI and FOMC on Wednesday. The U.S. sold USD 53 Billion of 3yr notes at a high yield of 4.559%, tailing the When Issued by 1.1bps, much larger than the six auction average of a tail of 0.1bps and prior stop-through of 0.3bps. The B/C was also weak at 2.43x, beneath the 2.63x prior and 2.57 six auction average. The soft reception was led by a drop in direct demand which came in beneath the prior average, but indirect demand was relatively stable at 64%, albeit not enough to offset the drop in direct demand, seeing dealers take a chunky 20% of the auction. The soft 3yr auction added to the soft 2yr, 5yr, and 7yr supply recently, with participants perhaps sitting on the sidelines ahead of key risk events like the US CPI and FOMC tomorrow. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 3.14% while Gold had a small rebound off Friday’s rout, ending Monday above $2300 with a 0.6% gain.
To mark my 3000th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 112 points yesterday and is now ahead by 653 points for June, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.26% higher at a price of 5360.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 69 points higher for a 0.18% gain at a price of 38,868.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.39% higher at a price of 19,074.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.40% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.25% higher at a price of 39,134.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.24% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.0762.
The British Pound closed 0.1%higher at 1.2732.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $157.02.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points higher at 2.68%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points higher at 4.34%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 4.47%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.14% higher at $77.90 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.6% higher at $2310 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. Unemployment Rate which came in at 4.4% versus 4.3% expected. Next, we have the U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index at 11.00 am and a speech from ECB Members Lane at 12.00 pm and Elderson at 5.45 pm. Finally, we have a 10-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P closed 14 Handles higher at a price of 5360 which is a new all-time closing high. This high was attended by a flat Breadth as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which improved only a few points, closing at – 86 last night. The extended nature of the advance since the lows from October 2022 with minimal declines, especially since October of last year, suggests that when we do get a sell-off it could and should accelerate quickly. Again, as I have said a few times it is the ‘’WHEN’’ we are looking for and will only become clear after the event. For now, buying the dip a cross all markets continue to pay dividends. Yesterday, the S&P missed my 5315-buy level with a 5328-morning low before rallying into the close and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 5321/5337 with a higher 5309 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P is close to my 5400 Target Level. I will now raise my sell level to 5395/5411 with a higher 5425 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
I am still long the Euro from early yesterday at a price of 1.0785. I will add to this position at 1.0705 while lowering my ‘’Closing Stop’’ to a price of 1.0655. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0835. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
This morning, the Dollar is trading a few points lower at 105.13. I am still flat Today; I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 103.70/104.40 with the same 103.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked well as the market sold off to my 18360-buy level before rallying over 150 points. This move higher saw my revised 18427 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer of the DAX on any further move lower to 18320/18410 with a higher 18235 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
My latest 8175 long FTSE position worked well as the market rallied to my 8220 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the FTSE is trading higher at 8250 as I go to press. As long as the FTSE does not close below 8100, I will continue to be a buyer of dips despite how overbought the Market is at this time. The FTSE has short-term support from 8130/8200 where I will again be a buyer with a tight 8075 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8240. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Although the Small Cap Russell 2000 rallied yesterday the Index is still lagging the Blue-Chip-Indexes in a notable way. The ratio of the Russell 2000 Index to the S&P 500 has now dropped to its lowest level in 23 years, since August 2001. I am now looking at the Russell 2000 as a potential buying opportunity. I have been doing a lot of research on this market over the past few months and I will look to add this Contract to my Daily Service over the coming days. I am still flat the Dow as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. Ahead of the Fed and key CPI data tomorrow, I will now raise my Dow buy level to 38430/38680 with a now higher 38295 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 38840. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat the NDX as twice the market came close to yesterday’s sell level before falling and then rebounding into the close. I will now raise my sell level to 19160/19310 while leaving my 19405 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
The Bund continued sell-off yesterday. This move lower saw my second buy level at 129.70 triggered for a now 130.05 average long position. I will leave my 129.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 130.50. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 2272/2288 with a higher 2259 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2302.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver from last week at a price of 29.80. I will continue to look to add to this position at 29.00 while leaving my 28.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. Meanwhile, I will leave my 30.40 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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