U.S. Indices climbed higher on Monday (SPX +0.7%, DJIA +0.4%, RUT +0.4%) despite tariff escalation talk over the weekend, namely that US President Trump is to announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium coming into the US. NDX (+1.2%) outperformed, and supported by Technology outperforming on broad-based semiconductor manufacturers’ strength as Evercore added Nvidia to its Tactical Outperform list; Nvidia (NVDA +3.6%), Broadcom (AVGO, +4.5%), AMD (AMD, +2.7). Energy was the best-performing sector amid firmer crude prices on said tariff developments and also geopolitical woes, while Financials were the clear laggard. The widely anticipated announced US metal tariffs, benefitted US Steel (NUE, STLD, X, CLF) and aluminium names (AA), while European counterparts saw lacklustre trade. US data was light, but the latest NY Fed SCE, revealed 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations unchanged at 3% while 5-year expectations jumped to 3.0% (prev. 2.7%). In FX, the dollar was firmer vs. most major peers on the weekend tariff developments, while the Australian Dollar saw gains as PM Albanese urged the US to give the country exemption over the steel tariffs, and hotter-than-expected Norwegian inflation supported NOK’s outperformance. For Treasuries, gains in the morning pared, with the longer end seeing slight losses as spreads steepened. As mentioned, crude prices were firmer, with WTI and Brent settling in the green by over USD 1.20/bbl as energy-specific updates took the back foot. Latest geopolitical updates included, Gaza ceasefire mediators fearing the breakdown of the agreement, with talks postponed until a clear indication from the US on the continuation of the phase plan. While Trump’s envoy for Russia/Ukraine is reportedly preparing options to end the war in Ukraine, and he will visit Ukraine next week. Ahead, attention is on Trump’s announcement of steel/aluminium tariffs, as well as reciprocal tariffs scheduled on either Tuesday or Wednesday. Tuesday’s calendar sees Fed’s Chair Powell testify before the Senate. The January NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations saw the 1- and 3-year inflation forecasts maintained at 3.0%, while the 5 year ahead forecast was revised higher to 3.0% from 2.7%. Within the report, it notes that “Commodity price expectations rose across the board, with the expected price change for gas, food, medical care, education, and rent all increasing. Labour market expectations were mixed, with job loss and job finding expectations both rising and unemployment expectations falling to the lowest level since July 2021. Household spending growth expectations also declined in January, hitting the lowest level seen in the last four years.” The inflation forecasts follow on from what was seen in the preliminary University of Michigan Survey last week for February, which saw the 5-year inflation expectations tick up to 3.3% from 3.2%, although the 1 year rose to 4.3% from 3.3%. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 2% while Gold surged 1.5%, closing at yet another new all-time high above $2900.
To mark my 3150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 60 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1475 points for February, after closing January with a gain of 2768 points, after closing December with a gain of 1997 points after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.67% higher at a price of 6066.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 167 points higher for a 0.38%gain at a price of 44,470.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.245 higher at a price of 21,756.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.58% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.03% higher at a price of 38,801.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.22% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0315.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2370.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $151.90.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower 2.37%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 4.46%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.50%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.06% higher at $72.46 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.5% higher at $2904 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the Euro-Zone or the U.K. At 11.00 am we have U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony to Congress on Monetary Policy at 3.00 pm. Next, we have a Three-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Bowman at 8.30 pm and Williams at 8.35 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P gapped higher at the European Open before trading sideways for most of the day. This move higher saw the S&P hit my sell range for a 6067 short position. Shortly after the U.S. Markets closed President Trump announced a blanket imposition of tariffs with no exceptions from March 4 which is the day that the 30-day pause on Mexico and Canada tariffs is due to end. The S&P sold off on this news to my revised 6052 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. However, as shown by yesterday’s price action that markets remain absolutely bullet proof no matter what happens. This is why I covered my S&P short position. China announced tariffs over the weekend while Trump announced he will implement 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium globally and nobody cares. Retail continues to aggressively buy any dip while insiders continue to sell. Given how overbought the $NYSI and valuations that are at nose-bleed levels I just cannot be a buyer of the S&P at current levels. Therefore, I will continue to be a seller of strong rallies believing that one of these aggressive moves lower is not coming back which will in turn trap anybody long. The S&P has further resistance from 6090/6106 where I will be a seller with a higher 6121 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has support below from 5950/5970 where I will be a small buyer with the same 5935 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded lower to my second buy level at 1.0290 for a now 1.0325 average long position. I will leave my 1.0235 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 1.0370. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: Today, I will Again be a buyer on any dip lower to 107.00/107.60 while leaving my 106.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Russell 2000
I am still flat the Russell as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 2170/2230 with the same 2115 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2270.
Cash FTSE
Wrong! The FTSE refuses to fill any ‘’Open Gap’’ below the market, much to my frustration. The Daily Chart remains severely overbought as I was stopped out of my latest 8635 average short position at 8725 and I am still flat. The FTSE has further resistance from 8790/8870 where I will again be a seller with a higher 8945 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 8720.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Monday’s buy range and I am still flat. The Dow has support below from 43900/44150 where I will continue to be a small buyer with the same 43695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I do not want to be short the Dow at this time especially as we have CPI and PPI to look forward to over the next couple of days.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX again traded the whole of my sell range for a now 21710 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level to 21630 while leaving my 21955 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
No Change: The Bund traded in a narrow 50-point range yesterday, and I am still flat. Given how Bund Yields are trading, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 133.90/134.60 with a higher 135.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold surged on Monday, hitting yet another new all-time high in what is now one of the most overbought markets out there. This move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a now 2900 average short position. I will leave my 2921 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 2889. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver continues to trade heavy, and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 30.50/31.30 with the same 29.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
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