U.S. Equity Markets were firmer to start the week (SPX +1.2%, NDX +1.3%, DJIA +1.2%, RUT +1.1%) in light newsflow amid a lack of tier 1 US data and Fed blackout ahead of the meeting next Wednesday. As such, all sectors, aside from Communication Services, saw gains with Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary sitting atop of the pile with the latter two buoyed by Boeing (BA) (+3.4%) and Tesla (TSLA) (+2.6%), respectively. In terms of stock specifics, Citi (C) sees Q3 market revenue -4% Y/Y and net interest income guidance looks modestly down Y/Y. On Apple’s (AAPL) Glow time Event, the tech giant announced the new iPhone 16 with Apple Intelligence, alongside a new Watch and AirPods. The Dollar was firmer to start the week to the detriment of most G10 FX peers, albeit in thin newsflow, with participants awaiting the US Presidential Debate on Tuesday and US CPI tomorrow, whereby the latter will likely be pivotal ahead of the FOMC meeting, given the magnitude of the cut is still a toss-up, albeit with most favouring a smaller 25bps cut. T-Notes see mixed price action in light trade, with the longer-end bid ahead of 3-, 10-, and 30-Year auctions later this week. Lastly, the crude complex was firmer to start the week, attempting to claw back some of its recent heavy selling, amid concerns Tropical Storm Francine could disrupt production and refining along the US Gulf Coast. Meanwhile the New York Fed SGE was released. Consumer inflation expectations for the 1yr and 5yr remained unchanged at 3% and 2.8%, respectively, but the 3yr rose to 2.5% (prev. 2.3%). The release saw credit delinquency expectations rise and households more upbeat on credit access. For home prices, the median expected rise ticked higher to 3.1% (prev. 3%), The survey also unveiled mixed labour market expectations, with the median one year ahead expected earnings growth rising to 2.9% (prev. 2.7%), while the mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now increased to 37.7% (prev. 36.6%), albeit, the mean perceived likelihood of losing one’s job in the next twelve months fell to 13.3% (prev. 14.3%), while and employment trends for August rose to 109.04, from the revised lower, 108.71.
To mark my 3075th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 210 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1227 points for September having ended August with a loss of 301 points after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.16% higher at a price of 5471.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 484 points higher for a 1.20% gain at a price of 40,829.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.30% higher at a price of 18,660.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.82% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.16% lower at a price of 36,159.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.37% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.1039.
The British Pound closed 0.4% lower at 1.3074.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4% closing at $142.98.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher 2.18%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower at 3.89%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 3.70%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.54% higher at $68.71 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $2503 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of Final German CPI for August which rose 1.9% versus +1.9% expected. Also released was the U.K. July Employment Rate which came in as expected at 4.1%. Next, we have the U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index at 11.00 am. Finally, we have a three-year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Monday’s rally in the S&P is likely part of a partial upward retracement from last week’s aggressive decline. There is variability in the short-term pattern because the decline from late August highs is not a clear impulse to last Friday’s low on the intraday charts, though it is possible to label a complete impulse using Daily ranges. The Index has retraced 32% of the decline so far. If prices were to retrace a Fibonacci 38.2% of the recent decline, the Index would hit the 5498 level. A Fibonacci 50% retracement would carry the S&P to 5527, while a Fibonacci 60%-63% retracement would see a rally to the 5552-5559 range. In my opinion the likelihood is a move to the 5505/5525 resistance level as a number of key Moving Averages are located in this range. Therefore, I will continue to be a seller in this area with the same 5541 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 5489. The S&P has short-term support from 5405/5421 where I will be a small buyer with a 5389 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5437. Today should see the S&P go on hold ahead of tomorrow’s key CPI release at 1.30 pm.
EUR/USD
The Euro closed 0.4% lower and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 1.0950/1.1020 with the same 1.0895 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1070. I still no longer want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
The Dollar closed 0.4% higher yesterday and I am still flat. This morning, the Dollar is trading at a price of 101.60. I will now raise my buy level to 100.30/100.90 with a higher 99.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
No Change: My fears that the DAX would fall finally happened last week with the DAX trading 600 points lower from where I last marked prices. Bund Yields are telling you that Germany is probably already in recession meaning that the DAX has a lot further to fall. However, it is extremely difficult to be short this market as any sell-off is met by aggressive buying. I am going to stay flat the DAX for now as I am afraid to be short and certainly have no interest in buying this expensive market at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. The DAX will hopefully give us a better edge after the ECB cut rates at Thursday’s Meeting.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE continues to trade heavy and found aggressive selling above 8400 last week. I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 8070/8140 with a higher 7995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE Market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow witnessed plenty of two-way volatility yesterday, trading in a 600-point range. Initially the Dow hit my 40800-sell level before falling to a low at 40660. This move lower saw my revised 40725 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. Subsequently, the Dow made a high at 41,000 before falling to sit at a price of 40770 this morning. The Dow has strong resistance from 41050/41300 where I will again be a seller with a higher 41505 ‘’Closing Stop’’ which is just above the all-time high. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX saw plenty of two-way price action yesterday. Initially the NDX rallied to my 15580 T/P level on Friday’s 18515 average long position, and I am now flat. Apple’s iPhone 16 presentation was a damp squid with the NDX trading in a narrow range following the event. The NDX has support at last Friday’s 18400 low print. Today, I will be a buyer from 18310/18470 with an 18195 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI release I do not want to be short the NDX as a retracement is now due. If this view, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund just mussed yesterday’s buy range by 10 points before having a nice 80-point rally off its 133.80 low print into the close. Today, I will raise my buy level to 133.40/134.10 with a higher 132.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the low Bund Yields I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to meander around the 2500 pivot point. On a valuation basis I much prefer to own Silver especially as we are in the seasonally weak September timeframe for the precious metals. I will not chase Gold higher preferring to only be a buyer on any dip lower to 2437/2452 with the same 2423 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2466.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver as the market fell shy of yesterday’s buy range. I will now raise my Silver buy level to 26.80/27.50 while leaving my 25.35 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
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