U.S. Indices ultimately saw minor gains on Monday, but the Russell clearly outperformed. Sectors were predominantly green with outperformance in Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Energy, while Utilities, Financials and Consumer Staples lagged. The main developments on Monday were the resumption of US/China trade talks, which have concluded for the day, but will resume on Tuesday at 10:00BST/05:00EDT. Elsewhere, the latest New York Fed SCE saw consumer inflation expectations ease across the 1, 3 and 5-year horizons. T-Notes were choppy but ultimately settled firmer supported by the fall in consumer inflation expectations, although attention turns to supply and US CPI/PPI later in the week. The Dollar saw slight weakness while Antipodes outperformed with a focus on the US/China trade talks, which so far have been “good” or “fruitful”, according to US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Energy prices settled green with the focus on negotiations between Iran and US. Trump said that they will be meeting Iran on Thursday, but so far Iran is asking for things they cannot have, like enrichment, noting how alternatives are very, very dire and they are not there yet. If the talks fail reports suggest Israel will have to decide whether to strike Iran again. The New Fed Survey of Consumer expectations showed consumers have eased their inflation expectations across the 1, 3 and 5-year horizons. The one-year ahead forecast fell to 3.2% from 3.6% in the April report, with the 3-year dipping to 3.0% from 3.2% and the 5-year falling to 2.6% from 2.7%. Elsewhere, the report saw the median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increase by 0.2 ppt to 2.7% in May. Consumers’ outlook on the job market improved. The mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now — dropped 3.3 ppt to 40.8%, remaining well above the trailing twelve-month average of 37.7%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.5 ppt to 14.8%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months increased by 0.1 ppt to 18.3%. Year-ahead expected food price rise at 5.5%, highest since October 2023, but consumers are expecting slower gains in gas, medical care, college and rent. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed higher on Monday by 1.29% and 0.72% respectively.
To mark my 3200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 30 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1389 points for June, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.09% higher at a price of 6005.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2 points lower for a 0.001% loss at a price of 42,761.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.17% higher at a price of 21,797.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.07% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.92% higher at a price of 38,088.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.21% lower.
The Euro closed 0.21% higher at $1.1418.
The British Pound closed 0.17% higher at $1.3548.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.12% closing at $144.63.
Bonds
England’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.64%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.56%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.49%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.29% higher at $65.41 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.72% higher at $3334.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Unemployment and Average Earnings at 7.00 am, followed by Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 11.00 am. Finally, we have a Three-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
A very dull day overall in markets. The S&P 500 attempted to rally but could not maintain its gains, finishing flat. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 Futures show classic rising wedge patterns accompanied by declining volume. However, after two previous patterns suggested an imminent reversal, as previously noted, the market has merely consolidated sideways so far. From another perspective, the 79-day cycle is nearing completion. Historically, this cycle has been reliable in terms of timing, suggesting that the index may also be approaching a turning point. Meanwhile, the longer-term 180-week cycle, which remains the dominant cycle, is still firmly in a downtrend and is not projected to complete until October 2026. The previous cycle peaked in August 2021 and was originally scheduled to bottom in March 2023, but the market actually peaked six months later (January 2022) and bottomed six months earlier (October 2022). Given this, it is possible the current cycle could end earlier than expected. However, I would be surprised if it had already concluded, suggesting either another move lower or an extended period of sideways price action. Despite the Chinese, Bessent and Greer meeting yesterday in London there are no trade deals announced so far. The clock is ticking as the 90-day deadline is now less than a month away. We have a number of ‘Open Gaps’ below that market and I would not be surprised if we have a meaningful sell-off over the next two weeks to fill some of these gaps. The Seasonal Chart is certainly in agreement calling for a sell-off in the S&P until the last week in June. Trump wants rate cuts but is hard to see this scenario play out when the Dollar is so weak and the U.S. economy is not heading to recession anytime soon. Yesterday the S&P missed my initial 6023 sell level by just one point before falling 15 Handles into the close and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be an aggressive seller on any further rally to 6028/6048 with the same 6061 ‘Closing Stop’. Today, I will continue to be a small buyer from 5905/5925 with the same 5889 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5943. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6002.
EUR/USD
No Change. The Euro traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller of the Euro on any further rally to 1.1470/1.1550 with the same 1.1615 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1390. My only interest in buying the Euro is on a large move lower to 1.1140/1.1220 with the same 1.1035 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1290.
Dollar Index
No Change: The pessimism towards the Dollar is intense. Tariff uncertainty, fiscal concerns and a shifting global sentiment are just a few of the reasons cited by investors favouring alternate currencies. The CFTC Futures Contract net short position has increased to 5485 contracts. This is the largest net short stance in nearly 15 years, since August 2011, which was near the start of a four-year Dollar rally. Given this backdrop of negativity, I am happy to be long the Dollar which I am at an average rate of 99.10 with the same 98.45 ‘Closing Stop’. I will leave my T/P level on this position unchanged at 99.90. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat as the Russell never came close to Monday’s buy range, closing higher by over 1.5%. I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 2050/2120 with a higher 1985 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2175.
FTSE 100
To bank some points for Monday’s session, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short FTSE position at my revised 8820 T/P level and I am now flat. Given how severely overbought the FTSE is having risen in a straight line over the past few months I will continue to be a seller of rallies. Today, my sell level will be from 8880/8950 with a higher 9015 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 8830.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change: This morning, the Dow is trading higher at a price of 42780. We have further resistance from 43000/43250 where I will still be a seller with the same 43505 ‘Closing Stop’. The Dow has short-term support below from 41850/42100 where I will continue to be a small buyer with the same 41695 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 42760. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 42330.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller of the NDX on any further rally to 21900/22100 with the same 22255 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 21760.
December BUND
Even though the Bund had a small rally on Monday the market traded in a narrow range. Today, I will raise my buy level to 128.90/129.60 with a higher 128.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 130.15. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to find support at the 3300 level and I am still flat as the market never came close to Monday’s buy range. I will not chase the market higher. Gold has short-term support from 3230/3250 where I will be a small buyer with a 3215 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3275.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. This morning, Silver is trading at a new 13-year high at a price of 36.80 as the rally in Silver shows no sign of ending. In my opinion it is only a matter of time before Silver trades higher to $51 which is the all-time high from May 2011. Even though Silver is overbought short-term I will now raise my buy level to 35.50/36.30 with the same 33.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 37.90.
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