U.S. Indices ultimately saw minor gains on Monday, but the Russell clearly outperformed. Sectors were predominantly green with outperformance in Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Energy, while Utilities, Financials and Consumer Staples lagged. The main developments on Monday were the resumption of US/China trade talks, which have concluded for the day, but will resume on Tuesday at 10:00BST/05:00EDT. Elsewhere, the latest New York Fed SCE saw consumer inflation expectations ease across the 1, 3 and 5-year horizons. T-Notes were choppy but ultimately settled firmer supported by the fall in consumer inflation expectations, although attention turns to supply and US CPI/PPI later in the week. The Dollar saw slight weakness while Antipodes outperformed with a focus on the US/China trade talks, which so far have been “good” or “fruitful”, according to US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Energy prices settled green with the focus on negotiations between Iran and US. Trump said that they will be meeting Iran on Thursday, but so far Iran is asking for things they cannot have, like enrichment, noting how alternatives are very, very dire and they are not there yet. If the talks fail reports suggest Israel will have to decide whether to strike Iran again. The New Fed Survey of Consumer expectations showed consumers have eased their inflation expectations across the 1, 3 and 5-year horizons. The one-year ahead forecast fell to 3.2% from 3.6% in the April report, with the 3-year dipping to 3.0% from 3.2% and the 5-year falling to 2.6% from 2.7%. Elsewhere, the report saw the median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increase by 0.2 ppt to 2.7% in May. Consumers’ outlook on the job market improved. The mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now — dropped 3.3 ppt to 40.8%, remaining well above the trailing twelve-month average of 37.7%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.5 ppt to 14.8%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months increased by 0.1 ppt to 18.3%. Year-ahead expected food price rise at 5.5%, highest since October 2023, but consumers are expecting slower gains in gas, medical care, college and rent. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed higher on Monday by 1.29% and 0.72% respectively.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 30 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1389 points for June, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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