Risk sentiment chopped to start the week with US Equity Futures initially hit with T-Notes supported following reports over the weekend that US President Trump is pushing senior advisors to go big on tariffs. However, a turnaround was seen after the Chicago PMI data topped all analyst forecasts, with month/quarter-end also at play. This saw T-Notes fall from highs while equities picked up from lows. Crude prices surged after the Chicago PMI data and the reopening of cash energy trade as traders digested escalating geopolitics and the improvement in the risk tone. On geopolitics, US President Trump over the weekend threatened to bomb Iran if they do not make a nuclear deal, while he also threatened oil sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine. In FX, the Dollar was bid ahead of the key risk week (Liberation Day, NFP, ISM PMIs, Fed Chair Powell), while the antipodeans lagged, but were off lows on the improvement in risk sentiment while attention for Australian traders turned to the RBA overnight. Gold prices continued to surge ahead of Liberation Day. Fed Member Wiliams stated it is early days in figuring out the impact of tariffs, noting there is a lot of uncertainty and they will need to watch the data to measure the impact. He stated the Fed has the ability to gather more information on hard data as the economy is doing reasonably well with a solid labour market. Williams said that he will not discount the weak survey and anecdotal data, noting uncertainty appears to be impacting behaviour. He warned there are upside risks to inflation being higher than Fed forecasts, and he forecasts that inflation will be relatively stable this year, but with upside risks. Williams expects the economy will continue to grow, but slower than last year, noting the economy does not have stagflation right now. He noted the Fed needs to keep longer-run inflation expectations anchored as they are today. Williams said monetary policy and the target rate for the FFR are currently really well positioned, and when asked about the balance sheet, said it was the natural next step to slow the balance sheet runoff to minimise bumpiness where possible. Meanwhile, Fed Member Barkin said it is going to take a while before we get clarity on tariff impact, and to cut rates you need confidence on inflation and the higher the inflation numbers, the less likely you’ll see that. Barkin added he is in no hurry on rate cuts, this is not a time for him to say how many rate cuts he has pencilled in for this year, and let’s wait and see how it plays out, as Fed Chair says. Richmond Fed President on the balance sheet, said run off could be slower for longer. Moreover, Barkin added data right now is okay, there is a risk on the employment side, and he is nervous about inflation and employment. Elsewhere, Oils surged, closing higher by 3.16% on Monday, while Gold made a new all-time high, with a 1.2% gain.
To mark my 3150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 210 points yesterday, closing March with a gain of 2254 points after closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.55% higher at a price of 5611.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 417 points higher for a 1.01% higher at a price of 42,001.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.02% lower at a price of 19,278.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.51% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.4% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 4.05% lower at a price of 35,617.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.20% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0809.
The British Pound closed 0.27% lower at 1.2905.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.3% closing at $150.27.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.75%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 4.69%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.26%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.16% higher at $71.55 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.2% higher at $3121.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Manufacturing PMI at 9.30 am, followed by Euro-Zone CPI and Unemployment Rate at 10.00 am. Next, we have a speech from Fed Member Barkin at 2.00 pm. At 2.45 pm we have U.S. Manufacturing PMI. Finally, we have ISM Manufacturing PMI and the JOLTS Job Openings at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Despite the S&P closing 0.55% higher yesterday, March saw a decline of 5.75% which was the largest monthly fall since December 2022. Seasonally April is one of the strongest months of the year and may account for the 120 Handle reversal off Monday’s 5490 low print. This reversal came exactly at the right time as sentiment got extremely weak as shown by the ‘Fear & Greed’ Index printing a low at 18 yesterday before rallying to close at 21 which is still a reading of Extreme Fear. Markets have been hit pretty hard since the February highs just six weeks ago. Net leverage is showing more short positions than during the COVID lows while M&A activity is dropping hard. Wall Street cannot be happy about this as all of the Trump election gains have now been wiped out. With this backdrop you ask why I am long? As bad as everything is currently advertised, things always look gloomiest during corrections. The details of the April 2nd may of course make things worse but they may also not be as bad. We cannot know that now unfortunately as we are now in the phase where politics heavily influence markets and we cannot control that. Positioning to the long side of the S&P is at its lowest level since August before a mega 400 Handle two-week rally commenced. I am still long the S&P at an average rate of 5643 from Friday. I will continue to have no T/P level on this position while my ‘Closing Stop’ will be at 5485 which is just below Monday’s low print. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 1.0690/1.0760 with the same 1.0615 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0820. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
The Dollar rallied to my 104.20 T/P level on my latest 103.90 long position and I am now flat. The Dollar has resistance above from 104.60/105.30 where I will be a small seller with a 106.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 104.20. I no longer want to be long the Dollar at this time.
Russell 2000
I am still long the Russell at an average rate of 2035 with the same 2070 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will leave my 1945 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE got hit hard yesterday before recovering into the close. This initial move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 8560 average long position. I will leave my 8465 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 8635. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market sold off to my 41150-buy level before rallying 980 points. This move higher saw my 41620 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. The Dow has support below from 41300/41550 where I will again be a buyer with a higher 41095 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 41940.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change: I am still long the NDX from Friday at an average rate of 19620 with the same no stop. I will now lower my T/P level slightly to 19710. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat. The Bund hit a high at 130.10 before falling 100 points into the close following the Equity Market recovery. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 127.80/128.60 with the same 127.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 129.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
Wrong! Gold closed at yet another all-time high on Monday. This move higher saw my latest 3082 average short position stopped at 3111 and I am now flat. I am going to stay flat Gold for now. The market is severely overbought but I prefer to be a buyer of dips than sell the rally. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my 33.60 buy level. I am still long with the same 34.30 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 32.80 while leaving my 31.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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