U.S. Indexes closed higher on Wednesday with upside led by the NASDAQ as tech stocks, namely NVDA, outperformed while the Dow lagged. Progress on the government shutdown was lacking, but there was some optimism in France regarding political instability and optimism on a Gaza deal, which appears very close to an agreement. Meanwhile, in the US, the Fed minutes were hawkish, and the 10-year T-note auction was weak. T-notes settled flat with the curve flattening slightly – early upside was seen tracking EGBs higher on hopes of progress towards the French budget, albeit T-notes had pared the move in US trade ahead of the minutes and auction. The auction saw T-notes push to lows, but little reaction was seen to the minutes. Within the Fed Minutes, it revealed a few participants saw merit in keeping rates unchanged in September, or that they could have supported such a decision, while Miran was the only member to support a 50 basis point rate cut. In FX, the Dollar added to recent gains thanks to weakness in the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc, but the Euro was off lows into the APAC session after French Caretaker PM Lecornu. He said there is a majority in parliament that is against the dissolution of parliament, and he said there could be a new PM within 48 hours (later confirmed by Elysee reports, citing Macron). The New Zealand Dollar underperformed after the RBNZ cut rates by 50 basis points early Wednesday morning versus split market expectations and pricing. Oil prices chopped once again but settled in the green, albeit off peaks, on reports that a Gaza deal is very close and likely to be signed within the next two days. Gold and Silver prices continued to rally, albeit heading into APAC trade off the earlier peaks, with both precious metals earlier printing fresh record highs. The FOMC Minutes had some hawkish and dovish elements. On the hawkish side, some participants said financial conditions suggest policy may not be particularly restrictive. Those members judged that a cautious approach to future policy was warranted. Moreover, a few participants saw merit in keeping the Fed Funds rate unchanged in September, or that they could have supported such a decision. Also, the minutes confirmed Miran was the only member to support a 50 basis point rate cut – even among the non-voting members. However, offsetting some of the hawkishness was that most participants judged the downside risks to employment had increased, while upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased. Although, the majority emphasised upside risks to their outlooks of inflation. When describing the labour market, the Minutes acknowledged the low number of monthly job gains, with several expecting it to remain low, citing low net immigration and workers nearing retirement age. However, when looking at other metrics (other than headline payrolls), participants generally assessed that recent readings did not show a sharp deterioration in labour market conditions. Following the minutes, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights that a 25 basis point rate cut remains a solid bet, but there will likely be some hawkish dissent. Elsewhere, Gold surged above $4000 with a 1.36% gain while Oil ended yesterday’s session with a 0.6% gain.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 310 points for October after closing September with a gain of 3774 points after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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