U.S Equity Markets closed lower on Wednesday with big tech/NDX leading the downside, while small caps (Russell 2000) saw relative outperformance despite slipping into the red in late trade as part of the broader risk souring. Treasuries continued to see bull-flattening in wake of the soft economic data – soft ADP Employment, and falling Unit Labour Costs – while traders are reticent to push Fed rate cut pricing any further for the time being at least ahead of NFP on Friday and FOMC next Wednesday. The Dollar Index was ultimately firmer, reversing initial losses seen after the US data as the risk environment soured into the close. The Euro saw noteworthy selling, with ECB rate cut pricing ramping further in 2024 to nearly 150bps amid tumbling German Factory Orders. Sterling was another standout underperformer in the G10 space, with soft construction data weighing. Oil prices hit multi-month lows amid mixed inventory data and the global growth woes, with OPEC action and jawboning failing to stop the rot; WTI is now beneath USD 70/bbl. For stocks, homebuilders did well, led by Toll Brothers (TOL) after its strong earnings report. Food producers were also well supported after the Campbell Soup (CPB) report. AMD (AMD) was lower despite the unveiling of its new MI300X chips, with competitor Nvidia (NVDA) even lower on the day, although the losses were already accruing before the announcement. Elsewhere, Oil closed a whopping 4.23% lower while Gold closed basically flat.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 200 points yesterday and is now ahead by 125 points for December after ending November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.39% lower at a price of 4549.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 70 points lower for a 0.19% loss at a price of 36,054.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.56% lower at a price of 15,788.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.52% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.76% lower at a price of 32,858.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.13% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.0765.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2555.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $147.35.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 2.20%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 11 basis points lower at 3.97%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points lower 4.12%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4.23% lower at $69.26 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.3% higher at $2026.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Industrial Production which fell 0.4% versus +0.2% expected. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone GDP and Employment Change. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and Wholesale Inventories at 1.30 pm. Finally, at 5.40 pm we have a speech from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem.
Cash S&P 500
For the first time since late October, the S&P closed below its 5 EMA following yesterday’s strong reversal off its 4593 high afternoon print. It is a start and if the 5 EMA (4560) holds as resistance then the long-awaited pullback may finally commence. The NFP Report tomorrow will have a big say on any potential move lower. With yesterday’s reversal one can make a case that we have a large topping pattern in the NDX having again found strong resistance at the 16000-resistance level. The 14 EMA has held the S&P consistently over the past few weeks. This morning the 14 EMA comes in at a price of 4534 which is not far below the current 4548 price as I go to press. I would love to see this support level break for a potential sell-off to the 4415/4430 major support where I would look to put a large, long position for the ‘’Santa’’ rally. Both the 30 EMA and 100 EMA are at this support area. Share buybacks have really helped the S&P to rally 450 Handles since the end of October. However, the buyback blackout window begins next Monday and lasts until January 19th, 2024. This blackout window means corporate execution volumes drops 35% during this closed window. Following the expected Santa rally, January could see a meaningful decline given all the extended technical signals. Vastly negative internals have not led to much of a sell-off as yet given the fact that the S&P has hardly moved on a closing basis since November 21. Last night the McClellan Oscillator closed lower at +72. My S&P plan worked well yesterday with the market hitting my 4590-sell level before selling off to my too tight 4575 T/P level and I am now flat. Ahead of tomorrow’s NFP release I will not chase the S&P lower. I will be a small seller from 4575/4593 with a lower 4612 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 4490/4505 where I will be a strong buyer with a 4473 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long the Euro from Tuesday at an average rate of 1.0830 with the same 1.0875 T/P level. I will leave my 1.0735 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. This morning, the Dollar is trading unchanged at 103.95. We have strong resistance from 104.40/105.00 where I will be a seller with a 105.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will still be a buyer on any dip lower to 102.50/103.20 with the same 101.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
No matter how bad the economic news is out of Germany the DAX continues to make new highs. Yesterday, the DAX hit my second sell level at 16630 for a now 16580 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level on this trade to 16530 while leaving my 16705 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market again traded in a narrow range. I do not want to chase the FTSE lower continuing to be a seller from 7555/7615 with the same 7675 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
After the Dow hit my second sell level at 36275 for an average 36150 short position the Dow sold off to just below my breakeven point. I got bored watching the price action and as the Platinum Service is finally ahead for the month I exited this position for a small gain at my revised 36132 T/P level and I am now flat. Frustratingly, the Dow then fell 100 points. Despite the late sell-off the 14 DAY RSI is still severely overbought, closing last night at 74. The Dow has resistance from 36250/36500 where I will again be a small seller with a higher 36705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX is continuing to struggle to make new highs. The NDX hit a high at 16010 before selling off over 200 points. This move lower saw the NDX hit my 15770 buy level. Given the strong reversal in the NDX yesterday, I am not comfortable in keeping this position. As a result, I have now exited this position here at 15802 and I am now flat. The NDX has support below from 15570/15720 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 15455 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time.
December BUND
Bund Yields closed a further five basis points lower at 2.20% yesterday. The higher price levels saw the Bund hit my second sell level at 135.20 for a now 134.86 average short position. I will leave my 135.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 134.40. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. After the fireworks in Gold earlier in the week, yesterday, Gold traded in a narrow range, and I am still flat. So far, the key 2000/2015 support area is holding. I am now going to chase the market higher leaving my 1990/2005 buy level unchanged with the same 1979 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite Monday’s massive downside Key Day Reversal, I still do not want to be short Gold at this time.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. The weakness in Gold saw Silver hit my second buy level at 24.00 for a now 24.40 average long position. I will leave my 22.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 25.10. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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