U.S. Indices were bid throughout the entirety of the US session despite weakness overnight, seeing stocks close with slight gains with outperformance in the RUSSELL 2000. Sectors were predominantly green with outperformance in Tech as NVDA and chip names were buoyed by the strong Google (GOOG) CapEx guidance but the overall downbeat earnings saw Google (GOOGL) slump, weighing on the Communication Sector. The chip outlier was AMD (AMD), after a weak data centre revenue saw the stock tumble. Consumer Discretionary also lagged with losses in TSLA and AMZN weighing. On global trade, although there was no call between China President Xi and US President Trump, there did not appear to be any further escalation on Wednesday. The focus today was seemingly more company-focused, as opposed to overall trade. China is weighing a probe into Apple (AAPL), while the US and EU are considering a probe into PDD (PDD) and Shein. Meanwhile, the EU is also considering probing US big tech in the event of tariffs. T-notes bull flattened with a focus on QRA, Fed speak and US data. Fed speak saw Jefferson echo Powell that the Fed is in no hurry to further cut rates. Barkin (2027 voter) stressed a wait-and-see approach but still expects further rate cuts this year. Goolsbee continued to sound cautious due to the uncertainty of US fiscal policies. On data, ADP National Employment was hot but wage metrics were cool, while the ISM Services PMI disappointed across the board, but the downside in prices paid was welcome, as was the improvement in employment. The QRA was largely as expected although it made a slight guidance tweak. Oil prices sold off with the soft China Caixin PMI, and bearish inventory data all weighing. There were also reports in Bloomberg that Trump is expected to lay out his peace plan for Russia and Ukraine next week, which further hit the crude complex and also gave a helping hand to stocks too. In FX, the Dollar was lower on lack of trade war escalation, supporting Antipodeans, while the Japanese Yen outperformed after the Japan wages data and also by lower US Treasury yields. US ISM Services PMI for January fell to 52.8 from 54.0, shy of the expected 54.3. Within the report, business activity and new orders dipped to 54.5 (prev. 58.0) and 51.3 (prev. 54.4), respectively, while employment lifted to 52.3 from 51.3, its highest value since 2023, suggesting that the labour market remains in good health. The inflationary gauge of prices paid dipped to 60.4 from 64.4. On the headline, Capital Economics note that the fall lends some support to its view that GDP growth will slow in the next couple of quarters, albeit with the caveat that the surveys have proved to be a poor guide to GDP in recent quarters. Within the report, it noted that poor weather conditions were highlighted by many respondents as impacting business levels and production. Like last month, many panellists also mentioned preparations or concerns related to potential U.S government tariff actions; however, there was little mention of current business impacts as a result. Furthermore, the past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for January (52.8) corresponds to a 1.4ppt rise in real GDP on an annualized basis. The ADP’s gauge of national employment, while lacking significant predictive power for the official jobs data, topped expectations, printing 183k against an expected 150k (and above the analyst consensus forecast range); ADP’s chief economist noted a strong start to 2025 for the labour market, but it masked a dichotomy where consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production. Within the monthly ADP jobs data, the median change in annual pay for job-stayers rose to 4.7% Y/Y (from 4.6% prior), while for job-changers it eased to 6.8% Y/Y from 7.1%. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 2.19% while Gold continued its recent gains, by closing at a new all-time with a further 0.7% rise.
To mark my 3125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 100 points yesterday and is now ahead by 735 points for February, after closing January with a gain of 2768 points, after closing December with a gain of 1997 points after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.39% higher at a price of 6061.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 317 points higher for a 0.71% gain at a price of 44,873.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.42% higher at a price of 21,658.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.47% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.08% higher at a price of 38,831.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.42% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0418.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.2511.
The Japanese Yen rose 1.2% closing at $152.41.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower 2.39%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points lower at 4.44%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 11 basis points lower at 4.40%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.19% lower% at $71.11 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.7% higher at $2862 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Construction PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone Retail Sales at 10.00 am. This is followed by the Bank of England Rate Announcement at 12.00 pm and Governor Bailey Press Conference at 2.15 pm. In between, at 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and Unit Labour Costs. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Waller, Daly and Logan at 2.30 pm, 3.30 pm and 5.10 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
The last three weeks have seen nothing, but relentless chop driven by one insane headline after another from President Trump. Aside from valuations it is the simple fact that a lot of these vertical rallies are not driven by convicted asset managers eager to deploy new capital as it is quite the opposite with Retail blindly chasing into any dip and not by a marginal amount, but by record amounts. Following Monday’s sell-off, Retail investors net bought $3 billion which is the largest amount on record, dating back to 2015. Maybe it will turn out well but if it does not the risk for Retail to get absolutely crushed on a large correction is pretty high given the record size of inflows. Given the backdrop of large negative divergences I just cannot justify been a buyer at these levels and I will continue to be a seller of strong rallies as we saw yesterday with reasonably tight stops. All this two-way price action may be evidence of a topping process which unfortunately we will know until after the fact. Complacency is extremely high as shown by any spike in the VIX instantly getting hit hard. Treasury Yields falling over 10 basis points yesterday certainly helped the rally in both the Dow and S&P on Wednesday. Remember Wednesday’s rally occurred against a backdrop of Google Shares falling 7% following poor earnings. This move higher saw the S&P hit my 6063 sell level just before the close. I am still short with a now higher 6048 T/P level. I will add to this position at 6083 with a higher 6101 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
Finally, the Euro rallied to my 1.0430 T/P level on last week’s 1.0400 average long position, and I am now flat. The Euro has support below from 1.0300/1.0370 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 1.0245 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0420. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
The 1.2% rally in the Japanese Yen saw the Dollar close lower on Wednesday by 0.5%. This move lower saw my 107.50 buy level triggered. I am still long with a now lower 107.90 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 106.80 while leaving my 106.35 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell led Wednesday’s gains, finally managing to close over its 50-Day Moving Average. Lower Treasury yields helped the Russell to rally and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 2180/2240 with a higher 2115 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2290.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE rallied hard yesterday, trading the whole of my sell range for a now 8635 average short position. I will leave my 8725 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged, while raising my T/P level at 8580. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow hit a low at 44350 before rallying over 500 points into the close. This move higher has me short at a price of 44870. While I am never comfortable in been short the Dow especially ahead of tomorrow’s NFP data, the severely overbought condition gives me some comfort. I will add to this position on any further move higher to 45120 with a now higher 45355 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 44700. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
‘’Nothing Matters’’ even a 7% fall in Google shares saw the NDX reverse earlier losses, to close higher on the day. This move higher saw my 21625-sell level triggered. I will add to this position on any further move higher to 21785 with a now higher 22205 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 21510. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
No Change: The Bund traded in a narrow 60-point range yesterday and I am still flat. Given how Bund Yields are trading, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 133.90/134.60 with a higher 135.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to make new all-time highs. This is another chart that is widely extended, Weekly Negative Divergence, way outside the Weekly Bollinger Band with a 14 Day RSI reading of 75. This chart does not justify a long position here. The big question is why is Gold rallying so hard: For one governments and central banks are buying it, but perhaps it suggests that on any equity sell-off, a signal of greater money printing to come. Wednesday’s rally saw Gold trade the whole of my sell range for a 2872 average short position. To bank some points, I covered this position at my revised 2865 T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has further resistance from 2890/2906 where I will again be a small seller with a higher 2921 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2874.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver missed Wednesday’s buy range by 10 points, and I am still flat. Given how overbought Gold is trading, I will not chase the price of Silver higher as I continue to be a buyer from 30.90/31.70 with the same 29.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 32.40.
Please Note: There will no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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