U.S. Indices were bid throughout the entirety of the US session despite weakness overnight, seeing stocks close with slight gains with outperformance in the RUSSELL 2000. Sectors were predominantly green with outperformance in Tech as NVDA and chip names were buoyed by the strong Google (GOOG) CapEx guidance but the overall downbeat earnings saw Google (GOOGL) slump, weighing on the Communication Sector. The chip outlier was AMD (AMD), after a weak data centre revenue saw the stock tumble. Consumer Discretionary also lagged with losses in TSLA and AMZN weighing. On global trade, although there was no call between China President Xi and US President Trump, there did not appear to be any further escalation on Wednesday. The focus today was seemingly more company-focused, as opposed to overall trade. China is weighing a probe into Apple (AAPL), while the US and EU are considering a probe into PDD (PDD) and Shein. Meanwhile, the EU is also considering probing US big tech in the event of tariffs. T-notes bull flattened with a focus on QRA, Fed speak and US data. Fed speak saw Jefferson echo Powell that the Fed is in no hurry to further cut rates. Barkin (2027 voter) stressed a wait-and-see approach but still expects further rate cuts this year. Goolsbee continued to sound cautious due to the uncertainty of US fiscal policies. On data, ADP National Employment was hot but wage metrics were cool, while the ISM Services PMI disappointed across the board, but the downside in prices paid was welcome, as was the improvement in employment. The QRA was largely as expected although it made a slight guidance tweak. Oil prices sold off with the soft China Caixin PMI, and bearish inventory data all weighing. There were also reports in Bloomberg that Trump is expected to lay out his peace plan for Russia and Ukraine next week, which further hit the crude complex and also gave a helping hand to stocks too. In FX, the Dollar was lower on lack of trade war escalation, supporting Antipodeans, while the Japanese Yen outperformed after the Japan wages data and also by lower US Treasury yields. US ISM Services PMI for January fell to 52.8 from 54.0, shy of the expected 54.3. Within the report, business activity and new orders dipped to 54.5 (prev. 58.0) and 51.3 (prev. 54.4), respectively, while employment lifted to 52.3 from 51.3, its highest value since 2023, suggesting that the labour market remains in good health. The inflationary gauge of prices paid dipped to 60.4 from 64.4. On the headline, Capital Economics note that the fall lends some support to its view that GDP growth will slow in the next couple of quarters, albeit with the caveat that the surveys have proved to be a poor guide to GDP in recent quarters. Within the report, it noted that poor weather conditions were highlighted by many respondents as impacting business levels and production. Like last month, many panellists also mentioned preparations or concerns related to potential U.S government tariff actions; however, there was little mention of current business impacts as a result. Furthermore, the past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for January (52.8) corresponds to a 1.4ppt rise in real GDP on an annualized basis. The ADP’s gauge of national employment, while lacking significant predictive power for the official jobs data, topped expectations, printing 183k against an expected 150k (and above the analyst consensus forecast range); ADP’s chief economist noted a strong start to 2025 for the labour market, but it masked a dichotomy where consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production. Within the monthly ADP jobs data, the median change in annual pay for job-stayers rose to 4.7% Y/Y (from 4.6% prior), while for job-changers it eased to 6.8% Y/Y from 7.1%. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 2.19% while Gold continued its recent gains, by closing at a new all-time with a further 0.7% rise.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 100 points yesterday and is now ahead by 735 points for February, after closing January with a gain of 2768 points, after closing December with a gain of 1997 points after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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