U.S. Indices ultimately closed in the green, but pressure was seen in the European morning to bottom out after the woeful ADP report, which heavily missed expectations. Stocks started to stage a comeback around the opening bell, with upside in Apple (AAPL) supporting following an upgrade, while Tesla (TSLA) delivery numbers were not as bad as feared. Healthcare underperformed following Centene’s (CNC, -40.4%) withdrawal of its 2025 guidance due to weaker-than-expected Marketplace growth and higher morbidity; competitors were weighed with UNH -5.7%, ELV -11.5%, MOH -22.0%, and OSCR -18.8%. Meanwhile, the agreement between the US and Vietnam on trade also lifted sentiment. T-notes largely tracked Gilts today, heading lower on the resumption of Gilt trade after the UK government passed an amended welfare bill, which will not save any money over the next four years, versus the initial GBP 5.5 billion in the original bill. T-notes spiked higher on the weak ADP report, but the move faded with participants questioning the reliability of ADP data ahead of NFP on Thursday. Further pressure came for Gilts as the future of Chancellor Reeves was questioned, which continued to weigh on T-notes. As a result, Sterling was the clear laggard in FX while the Canadian Dollar outperformed on rising oil prices. Oil prices were bid with analysts citing the US-Vietnam trade agreement, and also the Iranian president signing into law the suspension of work with the IAEA. Regarding Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, the House is currently stuck, with Fox reporting they cannot even get to test the vote on the bill because the pre-test vote is stuck. Headline NFP is expected to show 110k jobs added in June, down from 139k in May. The Unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.3% from 4.2%, beneath the 2025 Fed median of 4.5%. Average Earnings are seen rising by +0.3% M/M, easing from the prior 0.4% pace, with the annual rate expected to remain at 3.9% Y/Y. The data will be used to help shape Fed easing expectations, with 66bps of easing priced by the end of the year, markets are fully pricing two 25bps rate cuts, with a 64% probability of a third. The latest Fed 2025 economic projections revealed that the median view continues to see two rate reductions in 2025. Recent Fed commentary has seen both Governors Waller and Bowman suggest a July rate cut may be appropriate if inflation pressures stay contained, but the majority continue to favour a wait-and-see approach. Fed’s Bostic suggested that they will not have enough clarity by July to act, while Fed’s Barkin has suggested the NFP breakeven for the labour market is between 80-100k. Accordingly, any headline reading below this range would likely bolster the case for rate cuts, but there is still uncertainty ahead with regard to inflation. Chair Powell expects to see meaningful tariff inflation effects in June, July, and August, but if this is not seen, that could lead to reducing rates sooner. Throughout June, other labour market metrics have been weakening; both initial and continuing jobless claims rose relative to the survey week in May, ISM manufacturing employment sub-component fell further into contractionary territory, ADP private employment data for the month was woeful, while the Conference Board reports that consumers’ views of the labour market became more pessimistic. However, Challenger’s data showed the rate of layoffs eased in June, while the May JOLTS report was strong. JPMorgan has highlighted an improvement in the PMI all-industry employment index, while Homebase data in June was similar to past June months. ADP national employment for June surprisingly tumbled from May’s revised lower 29k to -33k, much beneath the expected 95k. Note, the headline also printed outside the bottom end of the forecast range. The median change in annual pay saw job stayers and job changers tick lower to 4.4% (prev. 4.5%) and 6.8% (prev. 7.0%), respectively. ADP chief economist Richardson said, “Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month. Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth.” Note, the data comes ahead of the US jobs report on Thursday, a day earlier due to US Independence Day on Friday, albeit there is limited correlation between the two. Elsewhere, Oil surged closing higher by 3% while Gold ended Wednesday’s session with a 0.5% gain.
To mark my 3200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 150 points for July after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.47% higher at a price of 6227.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 10 points lower for a 0.02% loss at a price of 44,484.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.73% higher at a price of 22,641.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.18% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.12% lower at a price of 39,715.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.04% lower.
The Euro closed 0.09% higher at $1.1798.
The British Pound closed 0.77% lower at $1.3639.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% closing at $143.62.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 16 basis points higher at 4.62%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 6 basis points higher at 2.63%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.30%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.95% higher at $67.38 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.52% higher at $3355.10 an ounce.
Today on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Services PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have the ECB Minutes of the June Meeting at 12.30 pm. This is followed by U.S. NFP including the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings, Weekly Jobless Claims and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. We have Composite PMI at 2.45 pm followed by Durable Goods Orders and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Bostic at 4.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Maybe President Trump caught a glimpse of the job numbers this afternoon, I am not sure, but he does not seem happy with Chair Powell as he renewed his calls for him to resign while at the same time the head of FHFA saws Powell should be investigated. You have to wonder how long the market will be okay with this, since the idea of Fed independence is what gives the Fed credibility. But as of right now, the market seems to be taking it with a grain of salt. Today’s jobs report is likely to be more critical than it might appear, given the soft employment data we have seen so far this week. Aside from the JOLTS outlier, which is likely to be revised downward, Wednesday’s ADP data was discouraging. This follows Tuesday’s weak Paychex small-business report. Also, let us not forget the weak ISM Manufacturing employment data and yesterday’s soft NFIB actual employment change reading. It is possible the employment report surprises positively—after all, it has a history of beating expectations. However, the series often feels like it’s generated by a random number generator, making it particularly challenging to forecast accurately. Judging by Wednesday’s implied volatility, the market seems to anticipate that today will be smooth sailing. For some strange reason, the Taiwan dollar continues to strengthen, and at this point, tariffs worries seem to be the only viable explanation. However, it is undoubtedly helping drive Taiwan Semiconductor’s ADR significantly higher. The local shares of Taiwan Semi remain well below their February highs, whereas the ADRs are already trading above those levels. Oddly, it is unclear how potential Section 232 tariffs, should they ever materialise, might directly impact TSM. In the meantime, the U.K. 30-year Gilt Yields rose by 22 bps on the day, with Rachel Reeves now in the hot seat. This is why we saw a global rise in rates on the day. No rates in the US were not rising due to the horrible ADP report, but due to the disastrous fiscal policy of the UK. Frustratingly, the S&P missed my 6183 T/P level post the ADP release by two handles before spending the rest of Wednesday trading higher. Overnight the S&P hit my second sell level at 6233 for a now 6223 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level to 6204 while also raising my ‘Closing Stop’ to 6251. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. I am still short at an average rate of 1.1810 with the same 1.1865 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 1.1690. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: There remains zero confidence in the Dollar which continues to trade near its year-to-date low at 96.62. If we get clarity on tariffs then we should get some confidence and the Dollar should rally. The Daily Chart is certainly set up for that given how oversold the market is. I am still long at an average rate of 97.40 with a now lower 98.00 T/P level. I will leave my 96.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
No Change: I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 2080/2160 with the same 2015 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2205.
FTSE 100
Politically the U.K. is a mess. Following the breakdown of Chancellor Reeves yesterday there are plenty of rumours about her future and her ability to stay Chancellor. This comes after Reeves was crying in Parliament following a U-TURN on Welfare Cuts. The lack of appetite for fiscal austerity has the market worried about Government Finances. 10-Year Gilts closed 16 basis points higher on the back of this which is not a good luck given the debt levels in the U.K. Meanwhile, the FTSE continues to ignore any negativity by trading sideways. In my opinion there is no justification in being long the FTSE given the risk/reward especially with the FTSE close to all-time highs. With the FTSE trading at 8800 this morning, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 8840/8910 with the same 8965 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 8770.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow. The Dow has strong resistance at its Feb all-time high of 45100. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 44900/45150 with a tight 45305 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 44610. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX reversed most of Tuesday’s sell-off, trading overnight to my 22670 sell level. I am still short with a now higher 22520 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move higher to 22830 while leaving my 23005 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. The NDX has short-term support from 21900/22050. I will be a small buyer on any large move lower to this range with a 21695 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 22230.
December BUND
I am still long the Bund from last week at 130.20 with the same 128.75 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. Today I will lower my T/P level to 130.60 which is just below Tuesday’s intra-day high. Meanwhile, I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 129.40. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Gold is trading higher at 3362 this morning. I find it very hard to buy Gold at these levels and I certainly have no interest in shorting the market despite how overvalued Gold is at this time. Gold has support from 3260/3280. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 3235 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3306.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver continues to trade sideways near its high for the year as the market tries to work off some of its severely overbought condition. Today, I will raise my buy level to 34.40/35.40 with a higher 32.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 36.10.
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