U.S. Indices closed lower (SPX -0.6%, NDX -0.5%, DJI, -0.6%, RUT -1.1%) but still remained well in the green for the week thus far, with focus on NVIDIA (NVDA) AMC. Note, NVIDIA beat on profit and revenue, despite incurring a USD 4.5 billion charge in Q1; Q2 revenue outlook fell short, but reflected a USD 8 billion loss in H20 revenue. Sectors closed entirely in the red with Utilites, Energy, and Materials underperforming while Real Estate outperformed. Pressure was seen in the likes of Cadence Systems (CDNS, -10.7%) after US President Trump ordered US chip designers to stop selling to China (via FT). Keeping on trade, a US Commerce spokesperson said the US is reviewing exports of strategic significance to China and has suspended some export license while review takes place. Concerning the EU, In FX, talks between US and EU officials are to occur on Thursday, and then on every other day. Aside from trade, FOMC Minutes was watched but sparked little reaction across markets. Members agreed that they were well positioned to wait for greater clarity on the economic outlook but pointed to tariff policies as posing a larger drag on economic activity than previously assumed. In FX, Dollar strength continued with gains seen across the board, while NZD outperformed following a hawkish RBNZ cut. Treasuries were sold across the curve, leaving yields higher similar to global peers. Treasury downside was aided by commentary from Fed’s Williams, who sounded cautious on inflation expectations, and a poorly received 40 Year JGB bond auction. Note, the USD 5 Year Treasury Note auction was decent, but signalled weaker demand than the prior, and to a lesser extent the six-auction average. Crude prices settled higher amid Trump continuing to disapprove of Russian President Putin’s recent action, noting he is playing with fire and said it will take about a week to find out if Putin is playing them. Meanwhile, Tehran denied Reuters reports of halting uranium enrichment for a year, adding, the continuation of enrichment in Iran is non-negotiable. Concerning OPEC+, the meeting went as expected with no oil output decision made, but the door was left open for a further accelerated output hike for July at the upcoming Saturday meeting. Minutes from the FOMC’s May 7th policy meeting stated that participants agreed that they were well positioned to wait for greater clarity on the economic outlook, adopting a cautious stance on monetary policy amid the risks and challenges facing the economy. Staff pointed to tariff policies as posing a larger drag on economic activity than previously assumed. Officials noted that uncertainty around their outlooks had increased and was unusually elevated. Most participants highlighted a risk that inflation could prove more persistent than expected and agreed that the risks of both higher inflation and higher unemployment had risen. They acknowledged the possibility of facing difficult trade-offs should persistent inflation coincide with weakening growth and employment prospects. It is worth noting that the Minutes of the meeting are an account of information that was available to them at the time of the May 7th meeting, and therefore it will not incorporate the recent de-escalation on trade frictions with China. Still, on asset prices, some participants observed changes in typical correlations across asset prices during the first half of April, while others noted that a durable shift in such correlations or a weakening of the perceived safe-haven status of US assets could have lasting implications for the economy. Elsewhere, for those looking for any clues on how the Fed’s five-year review of its policy framework, due later this year, officials said that maintaining the 2% price target supports transparency, accountability, and monetary policy effectiveness. The Richmond Fed composite manufacturing index rose to -9 in May from -13 in April, remaining in negative territory. Of its three component indices, shipments and new orders rose to -10 (prev. -17) and -14 (prev. -15), respectively, and employment edged up to -2 from -5. Backlog of orders lifted to -19 from -24, but local business conditions declined to -25 from -21. Looking ahead, the Index for future local business conditions rose significantly from -37 to -6. The future indices for shipments and new orders increased notably, with shipments rising from -20 to 2 and new orders increasing from -26 to -3. Prices paid dipped, while received rose slightly, but both notably fell looking ahead. Fed Member Williams said inflation expectations are well anchored, and he wants to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent as that could become permanent; a way to avoid that is to respond relatively strongly when inflation begins to deviate from target. Meanwhile, the NY Fed President said misperceptions about ‘r star’ can lead to long-lasting deviations. He added that you want the whole curve of inflation expectations to be well-behaved. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1.67% while Gold was flat.
To mark my 3175th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 50 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3606 points for May after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.56% lower at a price of 5888.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 244 points lower for a 0.58% loss at a price of 42,098.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.45% lower at a price of 21,318.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.51% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.84% higher at a price of 38.415.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.36% higher.
The Euro closed 0.34% lower at $1.1291.
The British Pound closed 0.28% lower at $1.3466.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.31% closing at $144.88.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 4.74%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.47%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.45% higher at $61.77 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.14% lower at $3296.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and GDP. Next, we have Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm and a Seven Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm. Meanwhile, Fed Members Barkin, Kugler and Daly are speaking at 1.30 pm, 7.00 pm and 9.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
It has been a wild night of trading as we head into the European session. The session got off to a fast start with equity headlines leading the charge. Nvidia’s Q1 earnings release made a messy entrance — the company initially published an incorrect EPS figure of 81c, well below the 93c expected. That was quickly corrected to 96c, turning the narrative into a modest beat. It was not one of Nvidia’s typical blowout quarters, but good enough for shares to rise and lift the broader market alongside them. But the real action came later: A U.S. Federal Court — the Court of International Trade — ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority in imposing tariffs on all imported goods. The so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, were declared illegal and blocked via injunction. A three-judge panel found that Congress did not delegate the president open-ended authority to set tariffs. Importantly, Trump’s sector-specific tariffs were not addressed and remain in place for now. Trump has already filed an appeal. The road ahead is likely to be long, complex, and politically messy. Ongoing trade negotiations may continue, but this ruling weakens Trump’s negotiating leverage. The uncertainty is expected to weigh further on business investment. The projected tariff revenue — previously touted to bring in between $3.3 and $5.2 trillion over a decade — now looks increasingly speculative. That leaves a gaping hole in Trump’s deficit-financed “Big, Beautiful Bill” of tax cuts. Goldman Sachs offered a different take, suggesting Trump could work around the ruling. Analysts noted he might reimpose a 10–15% tariff using Section 122 authority, buying time to launch Section 301 investigations targeting major trading partners. I am no tariff lawyer, but one assumes Goldman’s view is on solid ground. Markets reacted decisively. The U.S. dollar surged, with safe haven currencies like the yen and franc falling sharply. U.S. equity futures built on earlier gains. This move higher saw the S&P hit my sell range for a now 5990 short position. The S&P is now just 2.5% from its February 6147 all-time high. I will add to this position at 6010 with a now higher 6035 ‘Closing Stop’. Given the size of Wednesday’s Closing Gap, I would expect some of this Gap to be filled when the cash markets open this afternoon. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 5965. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
Overnight the Euro traded lower to y 1.1220 buy level before rallying. To bank some points for Wednesday’s session, I have now exited this position here at 1.1270 and I am now flat. The Euro has support below from 1.1100/1.1180 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 1.1035 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1250.
Dollar Index
I am still flat as the Dollar never came close to yesterday’s buy range, trading at 100.10 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 98.80/99.50 with a higher 98.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 100.10.
Russell 2000
The Russell was heavy on Wednesday, closing lower by 1%. I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1980/2050 with the same 1925 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2095.
FTSE 100
The FTSE continues to attract strong selling above 8800, closing lower on Wednesday by 0.6%. I am still flat. Today, I will lower my sell level to 8820/8890 with a lower 8945 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 8755.
Dow Rolling Contract
The U.S. Court ruling on tariffs sees the Dow trading over 600 points higher from Wednesday’s close. This move higher saw my sell level triggered for a now 42670 short position. I will add to this trade at 42920 while raising my ‘Closing Stop’ to a price of 43205. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 42440. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
A frustrating session. The late sell-off in the NDX saw the market just miss my 21260 T/P level on my 21380 short position before surging overnight, hitting my second sell level at 21560 for a now 21470 average short position. The NDX has a number of ‘Open Gaps’ below in a market that is short-term overbought. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 21400 while leaving my 21705 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat as the Bund has traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 129.50/130.30 with the same 128.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 131.10. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
I do not like the price action in Gold, believing that almost every investor is long the market. Ahead of the long weekend, I will now lower my Gold buy level to 3200/3220 with a lower 3179 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3244.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 31.50/32.50 with the same 30.35 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 33.20.
Please Note: With Ireland closed for a Bank Holiday on Monday, my next Daily Commentary will be on Tuesday June 3. Any of my calls that are not executed today and are subsequently triggered on Friday or Monday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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