U.S. Indices closed higher on Wednesday, with the Russell outperforming and the NASDAQ lagging. Sectors were predominantly firmer, with Energy the clear outperformer while Communication lagged. Tech was bid ahead of NVDA earnings after-hours. T-notes continued to steepen with focus on Fed independence, while Williams was somewhat dovish, but said he thinks it will be appropriate to reduce rates over time, and they will have to watch the data. The Dollar was flat but saw two-way price action with morning strength pared heading into the APAC session, driven by the fall in UST yields throughout the session. Elsewhere in FX, the Canadian Dollar outperformed on higher oil prices, while the Australian Dollar was bid after hotter-than-expected inflation. Energy prices settled in the green, supported by the increased likelihood Iran will be hit with snapback sanctions, while the EIA report was also bullish, and Hungary MOL Chief said the Druzbha pipeline could be restarted today or tomorrow in the best case, but even then it may not be running at full capacity. The reversal of the Dollar and Treasury Yields supported Gold prices into the closing bell. Eyes turn to NVDA earnings after-hours, the 2nd estimate of GDP, weekly jobless claims and Fed’s Waller on Thursday, and of monthly PCE on Friday. Williams, the New York Fed President somewhat reiterated recent remarks that a low neutral rate era appears “far from over”, noting that the Fed could reduce interest rates and still be somewhat restrictive. William views policy in a modestly restrictive position, and said goals are close to balance, but will have to watch the data. If the economy evolves as he hopes, Williams thinks that at some point, they need to move interest rates closer to neutral over time. On data, Williams said Initial Jobless Claims are low, supply/demand in the labour market and hiring are all slowing, and sees GDP at a 1.5% annual rate (vs Fed median 1.4%). Williams highlighted wage growth continues to be consistent with a solid labour market, and inflation is moderating towards 2% target. When asked about the breakeven rate on employment, he said it is hard to determine; the breakeven number is lower than usual, but he does not have a good estimate on a specific number. After the close we had the key earnings report from Nvidia. Here is what the company just reported for Q2:
- Adjusted EPS $1.05, beating estimates of $1.00 (NVIDIA benefited from a $180 million release of previously reserved H20 inventory, from approximately $650 million in unrestricted H20 sales to a customer outside of China.)
- Revenue $46.74 billion, +56% y/y, beating estimates of $46.23 billion
- Data center revenue $41.1 billion, +56% y/y, missing estimates of $41.29 billion; this was the second consecutive quarter in which data centers missed.
- Gaming revenue $4.3 billion, +49% y/y, beating estimates of $3.82 billion
- Professional Visualization revenue $601 million, +32% y/y, beating estimates of $532 million
- Automotive revenue $586 million, +69% y/y, missing estimate $592.7 million
Addressing the elephant in the room, NVDA said that there were no H20 sales to China-based customers in the second quarter, and the question whether there will be any sales in the future will likely be discussed on the call. NVIDIA also said that it benefited from a $180 million release of previously reserved H20 inventory, from approximately $650 million in unrestricted H20 sales to a customer outside of China. In his comments CEO Jensen Huang said that “Blackwell is the AI platform the world has been waiting for, delivering an exceptional generational leap — production of Blackwell Ultra is ramping at full speed, and demand is extraordinary.” He added that “NVIDIA NVLink rack-scale computing is revolutionary, arriving just in time as reasoning AI models drive orders-of-magnitude increases in training and inference performance. The AI race is on, and Blackwell is the platform at its center.”
NVDA also announced that while it returned $24.3 billion in stock repurchases and cash dividends in Q1, leaving it with $14.7 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization, on August 26, 2025, the Board of Directors approved an additional $60.0 billion to the Company’s share repurchase authorization.
While the Q2 results were generally ok if not stellar (and data center missed), the company’s guidance came slightly on the weak side of the buyside expectations. Nvidia is trading 3% lower this morning but it has not affected the Futures Markets which are back trading unchanged from last night’s close. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.75% lower while Gole ended Wednesday’s session with a gain of 0.3%.
To mark my 3225th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 320 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3142 points for August after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.24% higher at a price of 6481.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 147 points higher for a 0.32% gain at a price of 45,565.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.17% higher at a price of 23,565.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.10% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.73% higher at a price of 42,828.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.05% lower.
The Euro closed 0.07% lower at $1.1634.
The British Pound closed 0.09% higher at $1.3493.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.01% closing at $147.40
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.73%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.70%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.25%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.75% lower at $63.67 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.3% higher at $3395.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am followed by Consumer Confidence at 10.00 am. Next, we have the Minutes from the latest ECB Meeting at 12.30 pm. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm and Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.30 pm and a Seven-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm. Meanwhile late in the day we have a speech from Fed Member Waller at 9.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
A late rally on Wednesday was met by initial selling after we got the earnings report from Nvidia. The S&P had traded higher to my second sell level at 6481 for a 6471 average short position before hitting a post earnings low at 6445. This move lower saw my 6448 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. The sell-off did not last long with the S&P back trading at 6485 as I go to post. The linear chart for NVIDIA shows how much this stock is at risk of a proper correction. Ultimately, it is about sustainability. My own view is that if this market ever gets a vibe that the AI bubble is overdone the concentration and valuation aggregation of it all could set markets up for a serious sell-off. The question as I keep saying is the ‘WHEN’. Markets are super expensive with the S&P closing at new all-time highs as high yield credit keeps driving it all as shown by $JNK which made another new high yesterday. The aggression shown by the Trump administration towards the Fed makes you wonder whether this administration wants complete control of monetary policy and of course the Fed. The sacking of Fed Member Cook has so far been totally ignored by both the S&P and the Treasury Market. Trump said in one of numerous statements over the past 48 hours that ‘’he will soon have a Fed ‘Majority’ to push rates lower after firing Cook. This is an open declaration to turn the Fed into a political committee to do as the President wishes. Trump wants 1% rates as he has stated multiple times. It is now clear that he picks people who will say and do whatever he wants. I just cannot see how this will not have an adverse effect on Treasury Yields. These are to say the least interesting times. The S&P has further resistance from 6503/6523 where I will again be a seller with a higher 6541 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6476. I still do not want to be long the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 1.1690/1.1760 while leaving my 1.1825 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1610.
Dollar Index
The Dollar rallied to my 98.50 T/P level on my latest long 98.10 position and I am now flat. The Dollar has strong support from 97.00/97.80 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 96.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 98.40.
Russell 2000
I am still short from Tuesday at a price of 2365. I will continue to add to this position on any further move higher to 2425 while leaving my 2330 T/P level unchanged. I will also leave my 2475 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
No Change: The FTSE traded in a narrow range below 9300 on Wednesday and I am still flat. We have short-term resistance from 9330/9400 where I will be a strong seller with a 9455 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9260.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow. Ahead of the long weekend in America, I will now raise my sell level to 45850/46100 with a higher 46305 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 45580.
Cash NASDAQ 100
As I wanted to be flat ahead of Nvidia’s earnings I covered my latest 23540 short position at my revised 23490 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members. I am still flat this morning with the NDX trading higher at a price of 23560 as I go to post having hit an overnight low at 23430. It does not matter what the news is as buyers are determined to drive markets to new all-time highs. The NDX has further resistance from 23650/23850 where I will again be a seller with a higher 24005 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 23480.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market never came close to Wednesday’s buy range. Today, I will now raise my buy level to 128.40/129.20 with the same 127.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 129.80. Despite the low yields I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher from here. Gold is again close to all-time highs. We have short-term resistance from 3440/3460 where I will be a small seller with a tight 3475 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 3414. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip to 37.20/38.00 with the same 36.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 38.80.
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with update emails for my Platinum Members.
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